fspeech

46 ms·

571.
by fspeech 7y ago
There is definitely opaqueness and one needs to know how to read the data. For example China does not report people who test positive but do not develop pneumonia. The criteria for classification is clearly listed in the national guideline
572.
by fspeech 7y ago
You don't need to catch everyone. You just need to bring R0 to below 1. If R0 is a little over 2 in the first place you just need to catch a little over 50% of the infected with all your actions (in addition to temperature checking) to
573.
by fspeech 7y ago
Analysis shows there might be two subtypes from the very early days: https://academic.oup.com/nsr/advance-article/doi/10.1093/nsr... If the theory is correct, the L type is more aggressive and may be cau
574.
On the origin and continuing evolution of SARS-CoV-2(academic.oup.com)
1 points by fspeech 7y ago|0 comments
575.
by fspeech 7y ago
They test much more widely but only those with pneumonia are counted as confirmed. But this is a viral pneumonia. So the undercounting is not that much.
576.
by fspeech 7y ago
Look up ARDS and cytokine storm. Cytokine storm is not specific to pathogen.
577.
by fspeech 7y ago
Incubation is typically 4 to 7 days. Home isolation depends on compliance. Patients and their families will be hard pressed to comply if their medical and other needs can not be met.
578.
by fspeech 7y ago
The average incubation period is a lot less than two weeks. I've seen estimates from 4 to 7 days. Two weeks is considered the upper limit for most people, safe enough to use as the quarantine time.
579.
by fspeech 7y ago
There are (at least) two strains of flus circulating this season.
580.
by fspeech 7y ago
Yes that is the elephant in the room. Another one is infection and esp. death of medical personnel. There will be severe tests of every country's medical system.
581.
by fspeech 7y ago
I agree that our health care system is a mess in terms of incentives. The most vulnerable group (65+) is covered nearly universally. So the main issue will be to control the spreading and prevent overloading of the medical system. From that
582.
by fspeech 7y ago
Read the WHO comment: Guangdong, China, tested 320000 samples with postive rate of 0.15%. So no they did not miss a lot of light cases. The death rate is real, esp for the vunerable population. Medical system will be overwhelmed if this goe
583.
by fspeech 7y ago
It depends on the kind of care you can get. With early detection and ample care it is likely 1% or lower. Chance for serious pneumonia (meaning having oxygen issues) is around 14% for the current mix of patients. In an overwhelmed medical s
584.
by fspeech 7y ago
That is the point: China does not do home isolation. Wuhan had no choice but to try that in the beginning and it did not work. Things only started to improve when Wuhan were able to collect patients into quarantine sites.
585.
by fspeech 7y ago
Unfortunately Wuhan experience showed that home isolation doesn't work. Caretakers will get infected. People also have needs that will make them or their caretakers go outside.
586.
by fspeech 7y ago
HCQ is hydroxychloroquine, an antimalarial that is still widely available because it is used for autoimmune diseases. It is a prescription only drug. The antiviral property is described in this Lancet article: https://www.thelanc
587.
by fspeech 7y ago
It was reported in the news. Also Bayer donated a bunch to China from their stock in Pakistan. It's possible that HCQ, which is widely available, has similar effectiveness.
588.
by fspeech 7y ago
Clinical trials for Remdesivir are ongoing. There are some problems with the Chinese trials, which were the first to start twenty days ago: https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04252664 https://clinic
589.
by fspeech 7y ago
They restarted old lines. These are not terribly hard to make. There was just no demand.
590.
by fspeech 7y ago
Hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine were successful in malaria prophylaxis on a weekly dosing. Someone should start a trial among medical personnel to see if it is effective in coronavirus prevention. These are non-specific antivirals. Once
591.
by fspeech 7y ago
Not in the US. Nobody makes it here. Over $250 per 12 tablets at Kaiser. HCQ (hydroxychloroquine) is still used for autoimmune disease and is a lot cheaper.
592.
Remarkable Age Distribution of OC43 vs. SARS-CoV-2 in China(virological.org)
1 points by fspeech 7y ago|0 comments
593.
by fspeech 7y ago
It is a good thing they are telling people to call the hotlines instead of going to the hospital, but someone should do a follow-up to test people at home (on a triage or a random sampling basis). They can't just wait for things to bur
594.
by fspeech 7y ago
Japan's cases are more diffuse and they have a test now. The population is also much more aware of the disease now. There are some drugs that show promises. These are the positives. Hopefully it is enough to make the spreading slower i
595.
by fspeech 7y ago
The virus infects the lung. Swabbing upper respiratory tracts may not detect it at the early stage.
596.
by fspeech 7y ago
Hopefully it doesn't spread as readily in warmer places without air conditioning.
597.
New COVID-19 cases reported across Japan(japantimes.co.jp)
148 points by fspeech 7y ago|206 comments
598.
Number of confirmed COVID-19 cases rises in Japan(japantimes.co.jp)
58 points by fspeech 7y ago|55 comments
599.
by fspeech 7y ago
It's mostly a classification thing. Most who die from diseases associated with the flu, like pneumonia, are not recorded to have died from the flu.
600.
by fspeech 7y ago
The cases that the interview alluded to have already been published in JAMA: Clinical Characteristics of 138 Hospitalized Patients With 2019 Novel Coronavirus–Infected Pneumonia in Wuhan, China https://jamanetwork.com/journa

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