fabioricardo7

3 ms·

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Show HN: Frontier model pricing became a rip-off, so I built an open-source CLI(github.com)
3 points by fabioricardo7 2mo ago|0 comments
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Show HN: Frontier model pricing is a rip-off, so I built an open-source CLI(kolegacode.com)
2 points by fabioricardo7 2mo ago|0 comments
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by fabioricardo7 3mo ago
Thanks for your question. It's Monte Carlo, so individual simulated tournaments produce all sorts of champions, Argentina wins ~28% of the 100k iterations. What's stable is the aggregate: Argentina and Spain consistently come out
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by fabioricardo7 3mo ago
I appreciate everyone's feedback. This is a preprint, and I was looking exactly for this kind of constructive scrutiny to help improve the work. The data is limited, and I'm well aware of that. I just thought this would be a good
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by fabioricardo7 3mo ago
Hahaha, as a Brazilian, this hurts. But as a man of science, I can't argue with the numbers. Congratulations, hermano.
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by fabioricardo7 3mo ago
That was exactly the point I was trying to make in this preprint. I appreciate your comment.
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by fabioricardo7 3mo ago
Maybe in an alternate reality. Jokes aside, discovering the right weights to match the current fixture, along with the limited data available, were the key challenges in forecasting at such an early stage.
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by fabioricardo7 3mo ago
This is great! I've been looking for an alternative to this for a while: https://g1.globo.com/jogos/dito/ This is definitely the kind of game I'd play on a flight.
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by fabioricardo7 3mo ago
Link to preprint: https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=7013338 Constructive feedback very much appreciated!
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Show HN: A Monte Carlo model that called the World Cup finalists 2 weeks ago(github.com)
5 points by fabioricardo7 3mo ago|4 comments
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Show HN: For 10 World Cups, my model's 2 favorites had the champion every time(papers.ssrn.com)
39 points by fabioricardo7 3mo ago|52 comments