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Show HN: A Monte Carlo model that called the World Cup finalists 2 weeks ago
- fabioricardo7 3mo agoLink to preprint: https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=7013338 https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=7013338 Constructive feedback very much appreciated!
- trencedamp 3mo agoDid it confidently predict the same finalists consistently in every iteration? Or did it sometimes give different answers?
- fabioricardo7 3mo agoThanks for your question. It's Monte Carlo, so individual simulated tournaments produce all sorts of champions, Argentina wins ~28% of the 100k iterations. What's stable is the aggregate: Argentina and Spain consistently come out as the two highest-probability teams, and that barely moves across different seeds.
- gus_massa 3mo agoMore discussion https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48919191 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48919191 (38 points | day ago | 52 comments) Luckily the English guy was wrong.