ericb

49 ms·

511.
by ericb 7y ago
In terms of tracking all the chains, because of the dearth of testing in the beginning, I would suspect any shorter chains of transmission that didn't end in a super-spreader could easily be missed. It is hard to get tested even now. I
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by ericb 7y ago
We've built this "masks should be saved for healthcare workers" strawman ourselves with bad policy. Masks should be plentiful . Citizens wearing masks also saves healthcare workers !
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by ericb 7y ago
In macaques they found reinfection was not possible. https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.13.990226v1 The news stories about reinfection are suspect because there's a high false positive and false
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by ericb 7y ago
In places, you're conflating the very bad meme problem, to which science itself is susceptible, with science itself. For example, the whole "fat is bad, carbs are good" meme was never backed up by solid science, it itself was
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by ericb 7y ago
If we don't figure out a way to get past the anti-science types it will be the death of us all one or the other. We need to develop anti-memetic technology. Bad memes are killing us.
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by ericb 7y ago
Agreed, but most of the side effects go away once you stop treatment, or only occur with long term use.
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by ericb 7y ago
If the recent study that 90% of people can be virus free after 6 days of hydroxy choloroquine and azithromycin holds up, it seems like we could get through things much quicker than all that.
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by ericb 7y ago
I'm curious about the intensity and length of time needed to break down viruses with this light. Just wondering if there's some a possibility to use a "light bomb" to sanitize a room--set a light on a pole in the middle
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by ericb 7y ago
I love this idea!
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by ericb 7y ago
> You can’t scale up ICU based ventilatory support to keep up with a pandemic. It's almost like people think individual lives matter and don't have control over the larger response?
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by ericb 7y ago
You can. If you give it on a compassionate use basis to folks who are dying and if 50% more live vs. comparables then there's your study.
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by ericb 7y ago
> For a completely new drug it could take a year or more just to do the testing and get the approvals. > So I wouldn't have high hopes to see this being deployed widely any time soon. I don't know, I mean, this is one of tho
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by ericb 7y ago
Given how bad our plan for the coronavirus is, Trump may yet succeed in getting Mexico to build a wall and pay for it.
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by ericb 7y ago
Well, slowing this is in-control of competent governments, and mitigating the damage is entirely possible. For example, drafting retired nurse and respiratory care specialists and give a path for them to renew their licenses, building out t
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by ericb 7y ago
I have fairly low confidence in the high end numbers, because there's a chance the US would "wake up." Your low number bet seems like a layup! There is something appalling about "rooting" for death that doesn't
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by ericb 7y ago
There are only 37,000 motor vehicle fatalities/yr in the US. Care to show your work, because my numbers come out in the millions on our current no-mitigation, pretend-it-will-go-away trajectory.
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by ericb 7y ago
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/trump-fire-pandemic-team/ He never filled the role.
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by ericb 7y ago
He literally fired the CDC's pandemic response team.
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by ericb 7y ago
> the CDC is asleep at the wheel as a result of political pressure or potentially severe incompetence Trump fired the entire pandemic response team. https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/trump-fire-pandemic-team/
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by ericb 7y ago
> a few groups claim a vaccine is only a few months away That's just wrong as it would take months and months to test before you could deploy it. At least one of the vaccines for SARs actually made things worse, if memory serves. N
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Open-source “pandemic ventilator”(instructables.com)
148 points by ericb 7y ago|111 comments
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by ericb 7y ago
Does anyone have a system for keeping on top of the latest studies and preprints? I get study links second-hand on social media sites, but I'd like to watch them closer.
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by ericb 7y ago
Not true. In the colloquial sense, and actually every sense of the word, this is a pandemic. At the point it became undeniably a pandemic per the WHO definition, the WHO announced they were "no longer going to use the category pandemic
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by ericb 7y ago
Lower overall, but I believe it isn't lower than the flu for any age range, except maybe 0-10 or 0-20. I'll try and find the relevant study link.
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by ericb 7y ago
> That's pretty clearly not going to happen. Sure, if you mean that the capacity isn't there. And sure, if you mean it won't be 15% of the total, but rather 15% of the 70% of the population who catch it, then ok. If you me
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by ericb 7y ago
I notice a lot of downvoting without responses here. It smacks of denial and motivated reasoning. Usually on HN, when you get down-voted, you get a counter-argument. I think it speaks volumes when there's none.
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by ericb 7y ago
That's a sample population biased toward the elderly, though.
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by ericb 7y ago
What you're missing is the multiplier. It seems to be substantially more contagious. edit: To put a finer point on it, the estimates of the R nought range from the same as the Spanish Flu, to double the Spanish Flu.
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by ericb 7y ago
> Humans are also terrible at intuitively assessing risk Doesn't that also apply to you ? Have you looked into when and where testing is performed? In the US, if you don't have a china travel history, they won't test you.
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by ericb 7y ago
1-Since travel is still occuring out of mainland China, your faith in the virus being limited to the nation of China seems misplaced. 2-Your estimates of the probability are unlikely shift properly as the landscape of infection changes rapi

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