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> Humans are also terrible at intuitively assessing risk Doesn't that also apply to you? Have you looked into when and where testing is performed? In the US, i

by ericb 7y ago

> Humans are also terrible at intuitively assessing risk Doesn't that also apply to you? Have you looked into when and where testing is performed? In the US, if you don't have a china travel history, they won't test you. This has an incubation period that is still indeterminate, and in the US and other large countries, they are barely testing. So you literally don't have a way to be sure of what you're claiming--there's just no data, but somehow you are very confident in what you claim? Have you read up on the Spanish Flu? Was that just a "panic"? So far, by every measure, this looks to be worse--more transmissible, harder to detect, with a higher mortality rate. The Spanish Flu killed between 1 and 5% of the world's population.

_-___________-_ 7y ago
> Doesn't that also apply to you? Yes indeed, and to you also. But in the same way that one can learn to better appreciate exponential growth, one can learn to better appreciate risk, and try to apply that knowledge rationally rather than basing decisions on fear. > Have you looked into when and where testing is performed? In the US, if you don't have a china travel history, they won't test you. Yes. The most reliable testing procedures are quite invasive and carry at least some exposure risk for the healthcare worker carrying them out, especially if done outside a hospital setting. They also aren't guaranteed to detect the virus in the early stages, or in minor infections. This is one reason why China has moved to include clinical diagnoses as confirmed cases, and it's also why they didn't just test every person on the Yokohama cruise ship straight away. > This has an incubation period that is still indeterminate Not really. There are some pretty good bounds on it, especially with the significant number of cases in Wuhan available as data. I am confident in what I claim (given that what I claim is quite limited). I'm not making predictions here, I'm talking about the current state of things. Beyond that, let's see what happens...

by ericb 7y ago

_-___________-_ 7y ago

> Doesn't that also apply to you? Yes indeed, and to you also. But in the same way that one can learn to better appreciate exponential growth, one can learn to better appreciate risk, and try to apply that knowledge rationally rather than basing decisions on fear. > Have you looked into when and where testing is performed? In the US, if you don't have a china travel history, they won't test you. Yes. The most reliable testing procedures are quite invasive and carry at least some exposure risk for the healthcare worker carrying them out, especially if done outside a hospital setting. They also aren't guaranteed to detect the virus in the early stages, or in minor infections. This is one reason why China has moved to include clinical diagnoses as confirmed cases, and it's also why they didn't just test every person on the Yokohama cruise ship straight away. > This has an incubation period that is still indeterminate Not really. There are some pretty good bounds on it, especially with the significant number of cases in Wuhan available as data. I am confident in what I claim (given that what I claim is quite limited). I'm not making predictions here, I'm talking about the current state of things. Beyond that, let's see what happens...