4 ms·

1-Since travel is still occuring out of mainland China, your faith in the virus being limited to the nation of China seems misplaced. 2-Your estimates of the p

by ericb 7y ago

1-Since travel is still occuring out of mainland China, your faith in the virus being limited to the nation of China seems misplaced. 2-Your estimates of the probability are unlikely shift properly as the landscape of infection changes rapidly, and is not apparent to the naked eye. Humans intuitively do not tend to comprehend exponential/quadratic growth. This video outlines it. The main point is to look how late, in this scenario you'd be saying "no problem" and how quickly it goes from fine, to effed. Note: this is not an endorsement on the other items in this channel, I just think this particular explanation is demonstrative. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iIwyMif5EOg&feature=youtu.be&fbclid=IwAR1P0VtpPW7MLN5dLpjt83cRb0lQBDn5kb-HccyjTGYE1rC0CRgsCRCAUt8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iIwyMif5EOg&feature=youtu.be...

_-___________-_ 7y ago
> 1-Since travel is still occuring out of mainland China, your faith in the virus being limited to the nation of China seems misplaced. I never said it was limited to the nation of China, I said it wasn't widespread outside of China and a cruise ship, which remains true despite significant travel still occurring. Humans are also terrible at intuitively assessing risk, and the current panic is a great example of this.
- ericb 7y ago
  > Humans are also terrible at intuitively assessing risk Doesn't that also apply to you? Have you looked into when and where testing is performed? In the US, if you don't have a china travel history, they won't test you. This has an incubation period that is still indeterminate, and in the US and other large countries, they are barely testing. So you literally don't have a way to be sure of what you're claiming--there's just no data, but somehow you are very confident in what you claim? Have you read up on the Spanish Flu? Was that just a "panic"? So far, by every measure, this looks to be worse--more transmissible, harder to detect, with a higher mortality rate. The Spanish Flu killed between 1 and 5% of the world's population.
  - _-___________-_ 7y ago
    > Doesn't that also apply to you? Yes indeed, and to you also. But in the same way that one can learn to better appreciate exponential growth, one can learn to better appreciate risk, and try to apply that knowledge rationally rather than basing decisions on fear. > Have you looked into when and where testing is performed? In the US, if you don't have a china travel history, they won't test you. Yes. The most reliable testing procedures are quite invasive and carry at least some exposure risk for the healthcare worker carrying them out, especially if done outside a hospital setting. They also aren't guaranteed to detect the virus in the early stages, or in minor infections. This is one reason why China has moved to include clinical diagnoses as confirmed cases, and it's also why they didn't just test every person on the Yokohama cruise ship straight away. > This has an incubation period that is still indeterminate Not really. There are some pretty good bounds on it, especially with the significant number of cases in Wuhan available as data. I am confident in what I claim (given that what I claim is quite limited). I'm not making predictions here, I'm talking about the current state of things. Beyond that, let's see what happens...

by ericb 7y ago

_-___________-_ 7y ago

> 1-Since travel is still occuring out of mainland China, your faith in the virus being limited to the nation of China seems misplaced. I never said it was limited to the nation of China, I said it wasn't widespread outside of China and a cruise ship, which remains true despite significant travel still occurring. Humans are also terrible at intuitively assessing risk, and the current panic is a great example of this.

ericb 7y ago
> Humans are also terrible at intuitively assessing risk Doesn't that also apply to you? Have you looked into when and where testing is performed? In the US, if you don't have a china travel history, they won't test you. This has an incubation period that is still indeterminate, and in the US and other large countries, they are barely testing. So you literally don't have a way to be sure of what you're claiming--there's just no data, but somehow you are very confident in what you claim? Have you read up on the Spanish Flu? Was that just a "panic"? So far, by every measure, this looks to be worse--more transmissible, harder to detect, with a higher mortality rate. The Spanish Flu killed between 1 and 5% of the world's population.
- _-___________-_ 7y ago
  > Doesn't that also apply to you? Yes indeed, and to you also. But in the same way that one can learn to better appreciate exponential growth, one can learn to better appreciate risk, and try to apply that knowledge rationally rather than basing decisions on fear. > Have you looked into when and where testing is performed? In the US, if you don't have a china travel history, they won't test you. Yes. The most reliable testing procedures are quite invasive and carry at least some exposure risk for the healthcare worker carrying them out, especially if done outside a hospital setting. They also aren't guaranteed to detect the virus in the early stages, or in minor infections. This is one reason why China has moved to include clinical diagnoses as confirmed cases, and it's also why they didn't just test every person on the Yokohama cruise ship straight away. > This has an incubation period that is still indeterminate Not really. There are some pretty good bounds on it, especially with the significant number of cases in Wuhan available as data. I am confident in what I claim (given that what I claim is quite limited). I'm not making predictions here, I'm talking about the current state of things. Beyond that, let's see what happens...