dpierce9

16 ms·

121.
by dpierce9 5y ago
There are a lot of people blaming federal loans for the inflation in college costs, however, private secondary school (high school) tuition has also grown at a comparable rate (maybe even faster). There are not, to my knowledge, federal loa
122.
by dpierce9 5y ago
US healthcare is a four-party arrangement since employers are also intermediaries. Employers select the plan (or plan options) and they pay the bulk of the premiums. Their check is always bigger than yours even if you pay more for your poli
123.
by dpierce9 5y ago
Smoking causes cancer is true. But not everyone who smokes will get cancer and some people who don’t smoke will get cancer. Causation is hard. But we also know that particular cancers are caused by particular acts of smoking. The causal gen
124.
by dpierce9 5y ago
That isn’t controversial. The issue is your first point, there is no control group for the Earth as a whole system. So demanding a control group as a barrier to causal reasoning about the relationship between weather and the climate is an i
125.
by dpierce9 5y ago
The parent was suggesting causal inference from general statistical evidence to particulars is impossible. You seem to be suggesting there can be no causal inference where there are no control groups. Both positions are wrong.
126.
by dpierce9 5y ago
Replace ‘extreme weather’ with ‘lung cancer’ and ‘climate change’ with ‘smoking’ to see the soundness of this reasoning.
127.
by dpierce9 5y ago
“This case was specifically about what Holmes told Theranos investors, although her lies also impacted partners and patients.” This had nothing to do with patients though I am sure the patient angle helped underscore the lies to investors.
128.
by dpierce9 5y ago
Let’s distinguish schools and education. Schools include buildings, administrators, utility bills, IT, football teams, etc. Education is actual learning by students of important things they wouldn’t otherwise learn elsewhere (science, liter
129.
by dpierce9 5y ago
Gas (RBOB) is a refined product. The SPR is crude. There is obviously a relationship between them but it is a complex, laggy function of refinery capacity, distribution, etc. It will at least effect spot crude prices at the relevant deliver
130.
by dpierce9 5y ago
I agree they are basically saying the same thing but there is a subtle difference. Goodhart is observing a fact about measures, Campbell is offering an explanation of Goodhart’s observation, that is, why the target ceases to be a good measu
131.
by dpierce9 5y ago
It is true that you don’t want anomalies to be anomalous only with respect to some arbitrarily chosen (or sought) feature of the reference periods. The solution to this is to do sensitivity analysis of the anomaly to these ‘arbitrary’ feat
132.
by dpierce9 5y ago
Seconding MOFAD, it is great.
133.
by dpierce9 5y ago
Yes you can flip a switch and direct the power elsewhere, that is what switching yards do. The plant might have a supply contract with Alcoa but if Alcoa doesn’t use the supply they contracted for you they don’t have to throw the power away
134.
by dpierce9 5y ago
There being a price difference between business and residential does not imply a subsidy. It can simply cost more to distribute electricity to businesses, the time power is supplied may be different, and the nature of what is supplied may a
135.
by dpierce9 5y ago
The Moses Saunders dam is connected to the NYISO transmission network. The power system in New York is designed to move power north to south, west to east (lines tend to be symmetric in theory but a good model is that the city is the load).
136.
by dpierce9 5y ago
Not to mention that all New York power plants, including Moses Saunders, are connected to a massive electrical highway that runs straight to New York City.
137.
by dpierce9 5y ago
Residential rates are not typically subsidized, they are regulated and billed at cost plus. The only thing that can be called a subsidy is a delay in raising costs. When local utilities are required to supply at a fixed price and that fixed
138.
by dpierce9 5y ago
All good points. The age of firms is definitely fat tailed. Further, it is hard to count firm survival (mergers don’t obviously destroy firms, is IBM the same company it was, etc). Also what a firm is has changed over time (legally, structu
139.
by dpierce9 5y ago
The average lifespan of a company is 10 years.[0] The average lifespan of companies on the S&P is maybe a little more than twice that. Each year you have a 1/100 chance of seeing a hundred year flood. With a short lifespan the odds
140.
by dpierce9 5y ago
The average lifespan of a company is 10 years.[0] The average lifespan of companies on the S&P is maybe a little more than twice that. Each year you have a 1/100 chance of seeing a hundred year flood. With a short lifespan the odds
141.
by dpierce9 5y ago
Colleges often market themselves/degrees as salary levers. Even if you aren’t trying to maximize your expected salary it is unexpected for programs to have negative ROIs. I also think the analysis is deliberately narrow in only discuss
142.
by dpierce9 5y ago
This is from 2016: https://www.bizjournals.com/sanantonio/blog/eagle-ford-shale... It suggests the FAA’s role is consideration of launch failure and safety on the proposed plant. FERC also evaluated the proposal.
143.
by dpierce9 5y ago
Pay is not gaussian so comparing median salary to average home price is confused (average salary is 45% more than median salary in the US with wide regional variation). Case Schiller also only looks at single family housing stock so it won’
144.
by dpierce9 5y ago
Some of this is CYA on GM’s part to shift liability from them to customers should anything bad happen during the recall period. Anecdote: I found out my Ford had one of the Takata airbag inflators that was prone to producing shrapnel. Ford
145.
by dpierce9 5y ago
This is already a law for executive branch employees (SEC employees, spouses, children are generally not allowed to own individual stocks).
146.
by dpierce9 5y ago
Article woo aside, underground water is not impossible to measure. Min well depth (or depth of dry wells) is a straightforward way to measure the aquifer level for a small area. It doesn’t tell you much but it tells you something. Combine w
147.
by dpierce9 5y ago
Definitely. Solar and wind take it on that metric too (though I don’t have those in front of me). Add to that it isn’t a trivial calculation if you include project risk. What is the LCOE of the Summer reactors? Does that HUgE failure impact
148.
by dpierce9 5y ago
The new Summer plant reactors in SC were abandoned during construction after spending 9B. The units were nameplate rated at 2200 MW. Even at the point of abandonment, the cost of a MW was over 4 million. Solar is 700k to 1MM per MW. Wind is
149.
by dpierce9 5y ago
Perhaps the analogy could have been clearer and the hypothetical more broad. I was trying to press on the difference between the shipper doing a very specific test vs some functionally similar but unknown test being done by the shipping com
150.
by dpierce9 5y ago
It is an analogy to what Apple is doing. Analogically you are sending something to Apple to handle for you (either store or ship) and they have legal obligations and business requirements. Every other company manages those by ‘opening your

More ›