dkrich

17 ms·

121.
by dkrich 4y ago
Bubble in the sun is a great book on it
122.
by dkrich 4y ago
This episode from beginning to end is extremely interesting to me. Admittedly one of my areas of interest for the past several years has been studying bubbles from various eras but I think there is a lot to take from this story. First, bubb
123.
by dkrich 4y ago
Beyond meat breakfast sausage is an amazing product. Real sausage is gross to me and beyond tastes better and I never have to worry about eating a ground up bone. I make it on an almost daily basis. Expensive? Yes. Healthy? Maybe not but ca
124.
by dkrich 4y ago
This reasoning makes very little sense to me. Why drive assuming that it will be a rabbit most of the time and not a child or a deer or whatever you deem worthy of stopping for? If the possibility exists that a driver in front of you may st
125.
by dkrich 4y ago
In my recollection the fed actually ruled out a 75 bps hike back in the summer for basically no reason which many thought was a huge mistake then quickly reversed course when cpi came in much higher than expected and did hike 75. Yet anothe
126.
by dkrich 4y ago
Exactly and this is because unofficial fed policy is to follow the popular narrative. When it shifts to they have to stop hiking believe me, they will stop hiking.
127.
by dkrich 4y ago
What I mean is that in past cycles companies suddenly found themselves in distress they did not expect. This time however, everyone is calling for a recession so are battening down the hatches while earnings are still very strong. It’s unpr
128.
by dkrich 4y ago
Nah it’s more complicated than that. The fed is saying that because it’s currently a populist view. However their will to actually cause widespread distress and a severe recession will be tested when the populist view shifts back which we a
129.
by dkrich 4y ago
They have very little credibility currently because of past miscues beginning in 2018. The fed has to talk tough because if they were to say “we probably aren’t going to hike much more” markets would likely rebound, easing liquidity and mak
130.
by dkrich 4y ago
That’s true and a lot of enterprise customers are similarly cutting spending in anticipation of the recession which I’m sure is having impacts on these companies now. But again I believe that is based on fear as opposed to a strict need to
131.
by dkrich 4y ago
I think a great deal of this situation is narrative based. People are generally terrible at predicting earnings six months out as well as recessions and if we get a major recession it would easily be the most widely anticipated recession in
132.
by dkrich 4y ago
What’s unusual about this cycle though is that it’s the fear of a recession due to fed policy that is causing companies to cut back. In past cycles fed policy caused a recession nobody predicted and companies suddenly found their earnings i
133.
by dkrich 4y ago
Where does it say anyone was arrested?
134.
by dkrich 4y ago
What I’d make of it is a desperate attempt to conflate two completely different things (one of which to my knowledge isn’t even verified) in hopes of gaining sympathy for pulling the rug on an account without looking like a complete hypocri
135.
by dkrich 4y ago
Yep and if you look at it through that lens it all becomes fairly predictable. Bringing trump back presumably increases controversy and engagement. Everything he does between now and taking it public will be to maximize attention no matter
136.
by dkrich 4y ago
You can change to chronological order in timeline settings. The interesting thing is that if you do that you’ll quickly realize that most content is shit and you’ll still get suggested tweets filling the void
137.
by dkrich 4y ago
The problem for Twitter though is that they are very bad at hooking people. They desperately want to be like Instagram and tiktok in that regard but just will never have those types of numbers. I suspect the reason they can’t boils down to
138.
by dkrich 4y ago
To me this whole thing is pretty simple if you understand Elon’s history. He’s a master pumper/promoter much like P.T. Barnum. He’s currently attempting to inflate twitter’s perceived value after being forced to buy it by going on and
139.
by dkrich 4y ago
This is so true. Virtually all content in my feed is absolute shit and Twitter unlike Facebook and tiktok is terrible at driving engagement. Everything that’s suggested is crap. Probably just the nature of the platform and its content. I vi
140.
by dkrich 4y ago
This is all accurate in my experience but I’d add an additional dynamic that I’ve noticed in a lot of accounts I follow- people who are somewhat popular but not huge celebrities who do have blue checks who since the announcement was made se
141.
by dkrich 4y ago
Someone on cnbc made an interesting comment today. Not explicitly saying it but suggesting it might make a convenient situation whereby a company formerly villaified as being anticompetitive and dangerous now looks meek and on the verge of
142.
by dkrich 4y ago
Powell does whatever the popular narrative tells him to and he’s been that way since he took office. The idea that he’s fundamentally a hawk at his core is totally absurd. If that were the case he’d have enacted tougher policies a year earl
143.
by dkrich 4y ago
The most dangerous thing that can happen to an advanced economy is credit markets grinding to a halt. It was the panic of 1907 that created the federal reserve in the first place. Over the ensuing decades there was a very awkward path to ev
144.
by dkrich 4y ago
Saying the market was "flat" between 66 and 82 is a ridiculous oversimplification. There was a pretty strong bull market leading into 1973 which then began the worst bear market since the great depression, lasting until November o
145.
by dkrich 4y ago
Ackman has a very mixed track record and has not had particularly great returns. To believe that he somehow predicted the entire sequence of events is being incredibly generous. Earlier this year he laid out an unbelievably lazy bull case f
146.
by dkrich 4y ago
Interesting to see the similarities to watchOS
147.
by dkrich 4y ago
There’s no way to know how many corporate plans were sold because a single team member relied on Slack outside of work, or how many pro user accounts exist because someone was visiting a Slack-fluent friend. So why assume it’s positive RO
148.
by dkrich 4y ago
Right now oil and housing are basically what are driving the narrative and as a result, fed policy. I don’t necessarily expect that to last forever but currently it’s very clear that the fed is basically reacting to monthly cpi numbers and
149.
by dkrich 4y ago
Because people typically believe any narrative associated with a rising asset price. “This person was early and bullish and has made money so they must understand it.” The ill-informed association of wealth and genius are age-old and in man
150.
by dkrich 4y ago
They were assuring customers of their stability, let’s see, six days ago: https://blog.celsius.network/damn-the-torpedoes-full-speed-a... Surely there are going to be criminal charges forthcoming. Doing everything they can

More ›