What I mean is that in past cycles companies suddenly found themselves in distress they did not expect. This time however, everyone is calling for a recession

What I mean is that in past cycles companies suddenly found themselves in distress they did not expect. This time however, everyone is calling for a recession so are battening down the hatches while earnings are still very strong. It’s unprecedented and shows how societies adapt as they learn and focus on new factors. When the yield curve and the relationship between fed policy and the economy was little known and ignored and instead most people focused on trends in earnings or real estate or whatever the hot thing of the day was, the significance of fed policy and rates was huge. Now everyone is laser focused on the fed which changes behavior which changes outcomes. The worst recessions blindside virtually everyone and are so severe precisely because people are taking the most risk when things are most dire. Think the lead up to 1929, 2000, 2008, the Florida real estate boom of the 1920’s, etc.