dejb

148 ms·

601.
by dejb 18y ago
Just because something can't be accurately measured using current technology doesn't mean it doesn't exist.
602.
by dejb 18y ago
> If I have a single unknown variable in an equation, and I have no way of estimating it, or knowing its variability, or anything, then anything I put down will most likely be wrong and will likely be off by several orders of magnitude.
603.
by dejb 18y ago
Maybe you need a co-founder.
604.
by dejb 18y ago
I can tell you that the currency difference is pretty sweet at the moment. However the timezone difference does make it more difficult to communicate with US/EU customers and business partners. The expense of enforcing contracts overseas co
605.
by dejb 18y ago
> And expensive, capped, government controlled internet. Geographic reasons for the capped and expensive internet. Long undersea cable to the US. Historically we have paid for traffic both to and from the US. Government controlled? How?
606.
by dejb 18y ago
I think it is unlikely that fivethirtyeight.com would be more reliable. The human minds are still more subtle than statistical methods alone. However even if 538 did prove more accurate its results would soon be incorporated into the market
607.
by dejb 18y ago
Actually they do tend to aggregate anyway because of arbitrage.
608.
by dejb 18y ago
The 'Bradley effect' is only one of any number of possible phenomena that may occur and distort the results. Perhaps a new phenomena will occur and it will be named the 'Obama effect'. In 2004 the exit polls showed that Bush had very likely
609.
by dejb 18y ago
True. Both effects might true. However the 2 don't cancel each other out probabilitisticly. Given that McCain is so far behind the mere possibility of a Bradley effect favours him. Let's say both effects are 50% likely to exist and would sw
610.
by dejb 18y ago
I just had a look at 538 and I'd defintely put my money with betfair or intrade. There is no accounting for things like the 'Bradley effect' or other highly correlated events on 538. I'm sure many bettors do use it as a resource but their j
611.
by dejb 18y ago
You are using the techical description of "efficient markets" right? (i.e. perfectly accurate odds). Of course by this standard you are bound to be correct. However I'm sure you realized that by participating in and 'beating' the market you
612.
by dejb 18y ago
You wouldn't like Australia then. Voting is compulsory. You would risk a $20 fine (or having to come up with a good excuse) if you don't vote. Orwellian maybe, but they do have sausage sizzles and cake stalls which most people seem to like.
613.
by dejb 18y ago
> George Bush has taught me to evaluate politicians by their actions, not their words. To me his words, actions and the results were all pretty consistent. Only the scale of failure of his presidency was a surprise... And the fact that
614.
by dejb 18y ago
Um yes. So maybe stopping keeping animals as slaves in tiny cages might be a good idea. Just a thought. Would almost make one want to think about the animals that are kept for food and the like. Kind of puts me of my food just thinking abou
615.
by dejb 18y ago
When did you actually trust Microsoft with online computing? Before Vista? I don't see a huge relationship between Vista and their online efforts. Sounds like a bit of MS bashing propaganda from somebody who has never liked or trusted them.
616.
by dejb 18y ago
Yes so did I. To me it means the title of the article was speculative at best. Inaccurate is another word one could use.
617.
by dejb 18y ago
He made 866% betting AGAINST the subprime collapse? (from the opening sentence of the article). That doesn't make sense. Surely they must mean betting FOR the subprime collapse. Or am I missing something?
618.
by dejb 18y ago
Well he won't be the richest person in the world after he completes giving away 30 Billion of his money the the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation either (if he is alive by then). He has stated he doesn't plan to pass on a significant share
619.
by dejb 18y ago
Buffet is undoubtedly a great investor. But I have a slight feeling that could be doing this more for altruistic reasons rather than personal profit. He might believe that he can inject enough confidence in the system by his reputation then
620.
by dejb 18y ago
I was, of course, refering to the agricultural deaths. To some extent those seem similar to the situation in Ireland and possibly China under Mao. To what extent can attribute a failed policy as murder? Is the US responsable for the 1 milli
621.
by dejb 18y ago
That is an interesting historical perspective, one that I had not considered before. Still, if anything, it supports the notion that the US is faltering as the world power. BTW I'd be interested to see a comparison with deaths in rural Sovi
622.
by dejb 18y ago
I would consider Great Britain to be the originator of western democracy. The earliest roots of this are in the English Bill of Rights in 1689. Admittedly it wasn't initially what we would expect from a democracy but access improved over ti
623.
by dejb 18y ago
> The current non-US big fish (India, China & Europe) are just not converting GDP to militar/politcal power very well. You could look at this a different way and say that perhaps the US is relatively militaristic. Wouldn't it be bet
624.
by dejb 18y ago
You are making the same mistake as many Americans in equating the values of freedom and democracy with being American. There are many other countries of the world that are at least as democratic and free as the US. Nor is America the origin
625.
by dejb 18y ago
I'm not sure of the relative efforts applied to the Asian Tsunami. I didn't think that the US devoted a great deal of their military capacity to the problem. Of course the US. unlike Europe, actually shares an Ocean with Asia so it would ma
626.
by dejb 18y ago
OK Firstly I'm from Australia not the EU. > Yes, in some ways we do look down on you. That was my point. Most Americans know so little about the world but they are so convinced they are the best. In my experience most first world countr
627.
by dejb 18y ago
I think people from the US need to understand that when you argue that it is right for you to be 'the superpower' you are also arguing that the rest of the world should be subservient. Can you see how that sounds to the rest of the the worl
628.
by dejb 18y ago
To me it seems the decentralisation of power in the world world is a good and natural course of events. I think that communication technology such as the internet makes this the most likely course of events. The US doesn't have to be 'the s
629.
by dejb 18y ago
I should point out that after some searching I haven't been able to find any other sources for this. Terrible news if it is true though. Many people who voted for Rudd would switch sides if this was true.
630.
by dejb 18y ago
The whole purpose of my post was about the attitude demonstrated by the poster. I was pointing out and arguing against the blind 'America is the Greatest' thinking that it demonstrated. The fact that the poster felt so sure about it without

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