ctlby

9 ms·

31.
by ctlby 8y ago
All fair points. I'm an outsider, so I don't know what a "fair" price looks like, or how that's evolved over time. FWIW, I was looking for single family homes in Summerlin and Henderson. A quick Zillow search indica
32.
by ctlby 8y ago
The NY Department of Taxation and Finance is incredibly aggressive in pursuing such cases, and the burden of proof is on the taxpayer to show that FL is in fact their primary residence. Those wealthy people that spend substantial time in Ne
33.
by ctlby 8y ago
An anecdote that I previously posted on another thread and will repeat here: A couple months back, I flirted with moving from NYC to Las Vegas for tax reasons. I was shocked at the expense of luxury housing there, and construction costs wer
34.
by ctlby 8y ago
But to a first approximation, the numbers are the same! If anything, some of the biggest moves happen when a single (big) buyer or seller is active. It’s all about the prices participants are willing to trade at, not an imbalance of one gro
35.
by ctlby 8y ago
Perhaps buyers nibble at the ask. Perhaps a big order slams through. Or perhaps the posted liquidity is canceled without any trading having happened. Whatever the case, the number of shares sold is exactly equal to the number of shares boug
36.
by ctlby 8y ago
> There is no magical equilibrium Your understanding is exactly backwards. Market makers provide the "magical equilibrium" by bridging supply and demand across time. > and if there was, there would be no profit. Wrong again.
37.
by ctlby 8y ago
> more buyers than sellers lead to rising prices and more sellers than buyers lead to falling prices That's not how any of this works. Every share bought is a share sold by some counterparty. Buyers and sellers are always in equilib
38.
by ctlby 8y ago
A data point for your consideraton: One month ago, I briefly flirted with moving to Las Vegas for tax reasons. I was shocked at the expense (and shabbiness) of high-end housing there. Construction costs were similarly high--I was quoted $45
39.
by ctlby 8y ago
Not at all naive. Asians used to face prejudice arguably as severe as that faced by blacks. Once discriminatory laws were lifted, they began a remarkable ascendancy--one that was in large part [1] due to the market re-pricing the value of A
40.
by ctlby 8y ago
It was trivial to make the case, and that people didn’t see this represents a massive epistomological failure. Perhaps it would have been offensive, but adults should not be indulged when they engage in hysteria.
41.
by ctlby 8y ago
Very nice Burkean argument. There's a fascinating related example of what you describe: cassava [1]. Proper preparation of this staple food involves multiple steps over multiple days. Few of the steps serve an obvious purpose, yet omit
42.
by ctlby 8y ago
Of course. But we didn't really start off by arguing about state-level beliefs. You claimed the people most affected by sea level rise least believe in it--presumably as a dig at republicans (haha they're so blinkered by ideology
43.
by ctlby 8y ago
Half of your “red” coastline consists of Florida—the vast majority of the coastal population of which is blue (see any 2016 electoral map).
44.
by ctlby 8y ago
Great point, and the dismissive responses to your comment are revealing. So many hyper-rational, super-duper forecasters on HN who think they know better than the people who, you know, have actually succeeded enough in life to be placing th
45.
by ctlby 8y ago
Your premise is incorrect. The parts of the country most affected are the coasts--and they are blue.
46.
by ctlby 8y ago
This advice is dangerous and misguided. If you think rates will rise, don't be long duration. Holding to maturity does not insulate you from interest rate risk--you will certainly make nominal dollars, but in real terms, you will under
47.
by ctlby 8y ago
Mr. Gould was not an honest customer. Huge gap between scientific and public reception of his work. https://www.nationalaffairs.com/storage/app/uploads/public/5...
48.
by ctlby 8y ago
Oh, my comment was a concurrence. LWA is plainly obvious to any reasonable observer.
49.
by ctlby 8y ago
The standard authoritarian scales are indeed tuned to detect right-wing ideology. That being said, it's easy (though unpopular) to construct measures that capture Left-Wing Authoritarianism (the "Loch Ness Monster," as Alteme
50.
by ctlby 8y ago
I don't follow. Evidently, people could "afford to live" in 2000--almost all are still around to collect a paycheck. And now, they can live 19.6% (1.01^18 - 1) better than that! Real, not nominal. So why are the jobs "li
51.
by ctlby 8y ago
Berkson’s paradox
52.
by ctlby 8y ago
The idea that these "hate speech" venues have caused deaths is thrown around quite often, but I wonder if a connection has been found in even a single case. Gaping chasm between rhetoric and reality.
53.
by ctlby 9y ago
It’s not at all hard, and obviously so: for most crimes (e.g. assault, rape, robbery, murder), the perpetrator’s race is observable. The National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) and National Incident Based Reporting System (NIBRS) measure
54.
by ctlby 9y ago
As a European immigrant to the US, it pains me to see such misconceptions so widely held. Some of this is complete nonsense, but some stems from a mix of unsophisticated thinking and a profound lack of understanding of the country. > The
55.
by ctlby 9y ago
> There's plenty of research on the "entity theory" bias, mostly applied to gender. Junk science if there ever was any. The effect sizes for these treatments are tiny, if they even replicate it all. It seems like every day
56.
by ctlby 9y ago
> Google had plenty of reason to rethink his employment, not just because of his poor judgement, but because of the fact that he tackled a new (to him) science is such an unreasoned and unscientific way. This is emphatically not the issu
57.
by ctlby 9y ago
Fair point. I'm here to defend the factual basis for his conclusions, not the logic that got him there. At the end of the day, he told a just-so story; in this, he's no different than the "blame discrimination" camp. At
58.
by ctlby 9y ago
Start with Halpern's "Sex Differences in Cognitive Abilities" and follow the bibliography where it takes you (I really would like to provide the references, but just I don't have the patience to copy them now). For somet
59.
by ctlby 9y ago
The link doesn't explain a thing about the science; in fact, the author states in the very first paragraph that he won't even bother. What exactly do you think you posted? The manifesto's claims are very much in the scientifi
60.
by ctlby 9y ago
Speech=violence is perhaps the most hyperbolically nonsensical belief held by any political group today.

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