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Lots of wrong things with the comments > Contrast that to the US and Europe who keep talking about these things, but don't actually execute(although the US at

Lots of wrong things with the comments > Contrast that to the US and Europe who keep talking about these things, but don't actually execute(although the US at least tries to throw money at the problem). "Our analysis of multiple surveys indicates that as much as 91 percent of U.S. manufacturers have reshored some production in 2022, up from just 7 percent 2012. " https://www.assemblymag.com/articles/98200-a-look-back-at-2023-the-reshoring-year-in-review https://www.assemblymag.com/articles/98200-a-look-back-at-20... China's annual exports drop for first time in seven years. Among key trading partners, exports to the U.S. led the decline, down 13% from the previous year https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Trade/China-s-annual-exports-drop-for-first-time-in-seven-years https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Trade/China-s-annual-exports... > TSMC lost the Chinese market...South Korean officials on the other hand lobbied heavily to get long term exemptions, which allowed them to turn around their profit situation. Samsung profit tumbles 35% as chip weakness persists. https://www.scmp.com/tech/big-tech/article/3248969/china-remains-tough-market-stage-comeback-worlds-former-top-smartphone-vendor-samsung https://www.scmp.com/tech/big-tech/article/3248969/china-rem... Over 50% of Korean firms missing earnings target in China this year: survey https://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20230830000611 https://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20230830000611

thfuran 3y ago
>Our analysis of multiple surveys indicates that as much as 91 percent of U.S. manufacturers have reshored some production in 2022, up from just 7 percent 2012. 'Some' is doing a lot of work. What does that really mean? If 99% of manufacturers each onshore 0.01% of their manufacturing, all that has really happened is that everyone can probably now label things "made in america".
- berserk1010 3y ago
  here are some numbers U.S. manufacturing construction spending reached a 20-year high, hitting a $194 billion annual rate in April 2023, nearly double the $107 billion annual rate from a year ago. https://thinkkc.com/news/blog/kc-smartport-blog/2023/08/01/investment-in-u.s.-manufacturing-on-the-rise https://thinkkc.com/news/blog/kc-smartport-blog/2023/08/01/i... In 2021, Intel announced more than $43.5 billion in new manufacturing investments across Arizona, New Mexico and Ohio to bolster U.S. chipmaking and R&D leadership. https://www.intc.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1638/opinion-intel-is-poised-to-unleash-americas-innovation https://www.intc.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1638/... Walmart previously announced a $350 billion investment to make U.S. manufacturing more “affordable and feasible,” https://www.sme.org/technologies/articles/2023/october/reshoring-and-restoring-u.s.-manufacturing/ https://www.sme.org/technologies/articles/2023/october/resho...
  - whimsicalism 3y ago
    > U.S. manufacturing construction spending reached a 20-year high A nominal 20-year high and the increase is since the pandemic. Also this is for construction. Here are some other time series: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OUTMS https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OUTMS Walmart $350 billion investment is over 10 years and mostly is for agriculture and some small electronics. Also this source is an American manufacturing lobbying group.
    - berserk1010 3y ago
      here are some more companies have announced over $166 billion in manufacturing in semiconductors and electronics, and at least 50 community colleges in 19 states have announced new or expanded programming to help American workers access good-paying jobs in the semiconductor industry. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/08/09/fact-sheet-one-year-after-the-chips-and-science-act-biden-harris-administration-marks-historic-progress-in-bringing-semiconductor-supply-chains-home-supporting-innovation-and-protecting-national-s/ https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases... Apple commits $430 billion in US investments over five years https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2021/04/apple-commits-430-billion-in-us-investments-over-five-years/ https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2021/04/apple-commits-430-bil... Microsoft will buy enough U.S.-made solar panels to power 1.8 million homes https://www.greenbiz.com/article/microsoft-will-buy-enough-us-made-solar-panels-power-18-million-homes https://www.greenbiz.com/article/microsoft-will-buy-enough-u... Tesla plans to spend $3.6 billion more on battery and truck manufacturing in Nevada https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/24/tesla-plans-to-spend-3point6-billion-more-on-manufacturing-in-nevada.html https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/24/tesla-plans-to-spend-3point6...
      - csomar 3y ago
        I feel like this comment is GPT-ed. You are just putting random numbers out there. They are meaningless. The previous poster gave you an indicator "Real Sectoral Output for All Workers". The indicator adjusts for inflation. US manufacturing never recovered from the 2008 crisis. And in 2005, the output of manufacturing was higher than it is today (in real value terms, not funny dollars).
whimsicalism 3y ago
> Our analysis of multiple surveys indicates that as much as 91 percent of U.S. manufacturers have reshored some production in 2022, up from just 7 percent 2012. You should always be skeptical of statistics written this way. It is a very unintuitive way to aggregate and suggests that this is the strongest number they could find.
- adventured 3y ago
  Perhaps, however, the re-shoring is in fact happening. There has been a massive build out of new manufacturing facilities in the US over the last few years. Near $120 billion spent on new manufacturing facilities in 2022 alone. The surge looks like this: https://i.imgur.com/Bydq6Hb.png https://i.imgur.com/Bydq6Hb.png The US manufacturing sector has added 900,000 jobs since 2014 (according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics). It was at 12,081,000 manufacturing jobs in January 2014, and January 2024 is at 12,979,000. For the US, which is supposed to be a wilting manufacturer, that's a huge gain over a decade (including the pandemic hit, which slashed 700,000 jobs out temporarily; one guesses the figure would just be even higher minus the pandemic). Manufacturers don't add a million jobs if they're not expanding presence. Even if they were expanding very slowly, they would do everything possible to avoid adding jobs/labor (most US manufacturing expansion in decades past came from productivity gains). The US has modest corporate taxes, a good business regulatory environment, amazing capital markets, enormous economic scale, a single giant market, ports that can easily get you to Asia/Europe/Latin America, consumers, and labor. It makes perfect sense that at a time of growing risk of conflict with China, that the US would be reshoring.
  - ethbr1 3y ago
    Also, wouldn't be surprised if the drive towards minimal-latency shipping is having some evening effect. Increased labor costs... versus rapid, $$ last-minute transport / port fees to hide latency across the Pacific. At some point, it's just cheaper to pay the manufacturer more, if they can more rapidly respond to demand.
    - bobthepanda 3y ago
pksebben 3y ago
So like, if you're going to present contrary evidence, quoting an article by a party with a vested interest that claims they "analyzed multiple surveys" and then fails to link to them or even name them is not exactly helpful. I'm not arguing the point, mostly because I still don't have reliable evidence to argue about.
vkou 3y ago
> "Our analysis of multiple surveys indicates that as much as 91 percent of U.S. manufacturers have reshored some production in 2022, up from just 7 percent 2012. " https://www.assemblymag.com/articles/98200-a-look-back-at-20 https://www.assemblymag.com/articles/98200-a-look-back-at-20... With no numbers or rules for the numerator and the denominator, and no clear methodology, and no clear understanding of the biases and the agendas of the authors, these ratios are meaningless.
hmm37 3y ago
Annual exports dropped on a dollar basis but not when using RMB. On the other hand if you were to check Japan's exports, which newspapers are more likely to report on a Yen basis, it states exports are up due to weaker yen by quite a bit, but if you use dollar basis, it's down by more than 10%.
- berserk1010 3y ago
  Most Chinese factories in 2023, due to way less orders and needing to clear out their over inventory, had to cut their margins dramatically. thus, more shipped out, but making way less. They won't be able to do that in 2024, with factory shutdowns due to no margins and no more inventory. and that's why: - Chinese stock market has dropped 11% this year, with 3 year cumulative loss of 6 trillion in 3 years https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/23/investing/china-stock-market-losses-explained/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/23/investing/china-stock-market-... - Chinese economy is suffering from deflation - China’s youth unemployment rate hit consecutive record highs in recent months. From April to June, the jobless rate for 16- to 24-year-olds reached 20.4%, 20.8% and 21.3% respectively
  - 2devnull 3y ago
    Why focus on youth employment? Not that I disagree China economy is the toilet. But I do think they have a more nimble economy that can turn around quicker. If your thesis is that world manufacturing is leaving China to return (primarily) to the US that seems unlikely. More likely it will move to places like Africa and South America, no? We would expect that to happen as China economy transitions and they become the dominant world super power.
    - berserk1010 3y ago
      > they have a more nimble economy that can turn around quicker That's not evident in the persistent high youth unemployment rate. There is also something called middle income trap https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_income_trap https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_income_trap > they become the dominant world super power. There's no sign that that is guaranteed. No sign in culture power. No sign in economic power. No sign in demographics power. No sign in innovation power. No sign in technology power. No sign in military power.
breathen 3y ago
> Our analysis of multiple surveys indicates that as much as 91 percent of U.S. manufacturers have reshored some production in 2022 I'm not touching the rest, but this seems like an obvious fig leaf for largely failing to bring production home.

thfuran 3y ago

>Our analysis of multiple surveys indicates that as much as 91 percent of U.S. manufacturers have reshored some production in 2022, up from just 7 percent 2012. 'Some' is doing a lot of work. What does that really mean? If 99% of manufacturers each onshore 0.01% of their manufacturing, all that has really happened is that everyone can probably now label things "made in america".

berserk1010 3y ago
here are some numbers U.S. manufacturing construction spending reached a 20-year high, hitting a $194 billion annual rate in April 2023, nearly double the $107 billion annual rate from a year ago. https://thinkkc.com/news/blog/kc-smartport-blog/2023/08/01/investment-in-u.s.-manufacturing-on-the-rise https://thinkkc.com/news/blog/kc-smartport-blog/2023/08/01/i... In 2021, Intel announced more than $43.5 billion in new manufacturing investments across Arizona, New Mexico and Ohio to bolster U.S. chipmaking and R&D leadership. https://www.intc.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1638/opinion-intel-is-poised-to-unleash-americas-innovation https://www.intc.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1638/... Walmart previously announced a $350 billion investment to make U.S. manufacturing more “affordable and feasible,” https://www.sme.org/technologies/articles/2023/october/reshoring-and-restoring-u.s.-manufacturing/ https://www.sme.org/technologies/articles/2023/october/resho...
- whimsicalism 3y ago
  > U.S. manufacturing construction spending reached a 20-year high A nominal 20-year high and the increase is since the pandemic. Also this is for construction. Here are some other time series: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OUTMS https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OUTMS Walmart $350 billion investment is over 10 years and mostly is for agriculture and some small electronics. Also this source is an American manufacturing lobbying group.
  - berserk1010 3y ago
    here are some more companies have announced over $166 billion in manufacturing in semiconductors and electronics, and at least 50 community colleges in 19 states have announced new or expanded programming to help American workers access good-paying jobs in the semiconductor industry. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/08/09/fact-sheet-one-year-after-the-chips-and-science-act-biden-harris-administration-marks-historic-progress-in-bringing-semiconductor-supply-chains-home-supporting-innovation-and-protecting-national-s/ https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases... Apple commits $430 billion in US investments over five years https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2021/04/apple-commits-430-billion-in-us-investments-over-five-years/ https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2021/04/apple-commits-430-bil... Microsoft will buy enough U.S.-made solar panels to power 1.8 million homes https://www.greenbiz.com/article/microsoft-will-buy-enough-us-made-solar-panels-power-18-million-homes https://www.greenbiz.com/article/microsoft-will-buy-enough-u... Tesla plans to spend $3.6 billion more on battery and truck manufacturing in Nevada https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/24/tesla-plans-to-spend-3point6-billion-more-on-manufacturing-in-nevada.html https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/24/tesla-plans-to-spend-3point6...
    - csomar 3y ago
      I feel like this comment is GPT-ed. You are just putting random numbers out there. They are meaningless. The previous poster gave you an indicator "Real Sectoral Output for All Workers". The indicator adjusts for inflation. US manufacturing never recovered from the 2008 crisis. And in 2005, the output of manufacturing was higher than it is today (in real value terms, not funny dollars).

whimsicalism 3y ago

> Our analysis of multiple surveys indicates that as much as 91 percent of U.S. manufacturers have reshored some production in 2022, up from just 7 percent 2012. You should always be skeptical of statistics written this way. It is a very unintuitive way to aggregate and suggests that this is the strongest number they could find.

adventured 3y ago
Perhaps, however, the re-shoring is in fact happening. There has been a massive build out of new manufacturing facilities in the US over the last few years. Near $120 billion spent on new manufacturing facilities in 2022 alone. The surge looks like this: https://i.imgur.com/Bydq6Hb.png https://i.imgur.com/Bydq6Hb.png The US manufacturing sector has added 900,000 jobs since 2014 (according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics). It was at 12,081,000 manufacturing jobs in January 2014, and January 2024 is at 12,979,000. For the US, which is supposed to be a wilting manufacturer, that's a huge gain over a decade (including the pandemic hit, which slashed 700,000 jobs out temporarily; one guesses the figure would just be even higher minus the pandemic). Manufacturers don't add a million jobs if they're not expanding presence. Even if they were expanding very slowly, they would do everything possible to avoid adding jobs/labor (most US manufacturing expansion in decades past came from productivity gains). The US has modest corporate taxes, a good business regulatory environment, amazing capital markets, enormous economic scale, a single giant market, ports that can easily get you to Asia/Europe/Latin America, consumers, and labor. It makes perfect sense that at a time of growing risk of conflict with China, that the US would be reshoring.
- ethbr1 3y ago
  Also, wouldn't be surprised if the drive towards minimal-latency shipping is having some evening effect. Increased labor costs... versus rapid, $$ last-minute transport / port fees to hide latency across the Pacific. At some point, it's just cheaper to pay the manufacturer more, if they can more rapidly respond to demand.
  - bobthepanda 3y ago

pksebben 3y ago

So like, if you're going to present contrary evidence, quoting an article by a party with a vested interest that claims they "analyzed multiple surveys" and then fails to link to them or even name them is not exactly helpful. I'm not arguing the point, mostly because I still don't have reliable evidence to argue about.

vkou 3y ago

> "Our analysis of multiple surveys indicates that as much as 91 percent of U.S. manufacturers have reshored some production in 2022, up from just 7 percent 2012. " https://www.assemblymag.com/articles/98200-a-look-back-at-20 https://www.assemblymag.com/articles/98200-a-look-back-at-20... With no numbers or rules for the numerator and the denominator, and no clear methodology, and no clear understanding of the biases and the agendas of the authors, these ratios are meaningless.

hmm37 3y ago

Annual exports dropped on a dollar basis but not when using RMB. On the other hand if you were to check Japan's exports, which newspapers are more likely to report on a Yen basis, it states exports are up due to weaker yen by quite a bit, but if you use dollar basis, it's down by more than 10%.

berserk1010 3y ago
Most Chinese factories in 2023, due to way less orders and needing to clear out their over inventory, had to cut their margins dramatically. thus, more shipped out, but making way less. They won't be able to do that in 2024, with factory shutdowns due to no margins and no more inventory. and that's why: - Chinese stock market has dropped 11% this year, with 3 year cumulative loss of 6 trillion in 3 years https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/23/investing/china-stock-market-losses-explained/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/23/investing/china-stock-market-... - Chinese economy is suffering from deflation - China’s youth unemployment rate hit consecutive record highs in recent months. From April to June, the jobless rate for 16- to 24-year-olds reached 20.4%, 20.8% and 21.3% respectively
- 2devnull 3y ago
  Why focus on youth employment? Not that I disagree China economy is the toilet. But I do think they have a more nimble economy that can turn around quicker. If your thesis is that world manufacturing is leaving China to return (primarily) to the US that seems unlikely. More likely it will move to places like Africa and South America, no? We would expect that to happen as China economy transitions and they become the dominant world super power.
  - berserk1010 3y ago
    > they have a more nimble economy that can turn around quicker That's not evident in the persistent high youth unemployment rate. There is also something called middle income trap https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_income_trap https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_income_trap > they become the dominant world super power. There's no sign that that is guaranteed. No sign in culture power. No sign in economic power. No sign in demographics power. No sign in innovation power. No sign in technology power. No sign in military power.

breathen 3y ago

> Our analysis of multiple surveys indicates that as much as 91 percent of U.S. manufacturers have reshored some production in 2022 I'm not touching the rest, but this seems like an obvious fig leaf for largely failing to bring production home.