arctic-true

5 ms·

31.
by arctic-true 6mo ago
I tend to agree, but for the sake of argument: it’s possible that he’s such a true believer that he’d see cashing out as a betrayal. Alternatively, he might understand that cashing out would significantly aid the (clearly large number of) p
32.
by arctic-true 6mo ago
This is a limitation of the training data. If you were uncertain about something, you wouldn’t write a book about it. The kinds of people you’re talking about tend to generate far more text in their lives than others, because they can spen
33.
by arctic-true 6mo ago
Do you have any recommendations for colorization tools? I agree that all of the popular image models subtly tweak faces, it is very uncanny when working with pictures of people I knew before they passed. In a pre-GPT age, there were some go
34.
by arctic-true 6mo ago
Until the humanoid robots gain the ability to process caffeine, then we’re all hosed.
35.
by arctic-true 7mo ago
The demand is real. The tech is real. The economics are completely unsustainable. Switching costs and barriers to entry are too low, operating costs are too high. And if the tech improves, it actually makes it even easier for competitors to
36.
by arctic-true 7mo ago
I’m not talking about training costs. I’m talking about startup costs. You have to pay for GPUs (or to rent data centers). You have to pay for the electricity that runs those data centers, and in a lot of cases these frontier labs are bui
37.
by arctic-true 7mo ago
Profitable on what basis? They generate more revenue than the cost of electricity? Does that factor in the cost to service the massive, multi-layer cake of debt that was necessary to even begin to serve inference in the first place - not fr
38.
by arctic-true 7mo ago
The difference is switching costs and the viability of alternatives. Even open source models are only a few months behind the frontier labs, which is a long time in tech but practically no time at all in the eyes of a business consumer. At
39.
by arctic-true 7mo ago
But this is exactly the problem - we have to take it on faith that inference is profitable because nobody actually knows. It’s hard to even define what that would mean, and while I am suspicious of claims that frontier lab CEOs are just ou
40.
by arctic-true 7mo ago
The winner will be the last man standing. The company which is able to continue subsidizing tokens after all others have been forced to throttle and raise prices. Soak up the market share, wait for your rivals’ investors to get cold feet, t
41.
by arctic-true 7mo ago
Not sure it qualifies as an “LLM prediction,” but he was adamant that Nvidia would not come through with the $100 billion funding round, and sure enough they did not.
42.
by arctic-true 7mo ago
I found Gemini to keep asking the same follow-up questions regardless of my responses. In discussing a health topic, it repeatedly offered recipes for healthy snacks - 4 times, before I finally affirmatively said “no, I do not need snack re
43.
by arctic-true 7mo ago
I had this experience when I was trying to find an apartment - multiple different buildings very clearly had AI-generated responses. (To all you builders out there: quick replies are great. Instant replies are suspicious.) I immediately sto
44.
by arctic-true 7mo ago
I see this as well. Part of the appeal of any crafting hobby is that it doesn’t matter and you can just mess around, but the flip side is that nobody is breathing down your neck to get it done and you can take the time to realize your visio
45.
by arctic-true 7mo ago
What is it that makes all these vibe coded websites use the same font? Is there no way to change it?
46.
by arctic-true 8mo ago
The conditions are either an IPO or achieving AGI. I’d be curious to know how the contract defines AGI. If I recall correctly, the OAI-Microsoft deal just defined it as “AI-shaped tech that can generate $100 billion in annual profits”, whic
47.
by arctic-true 8mo ago
I am much more interested in how headcounts compare to 2019 than to 2025 (let alone 2022). Certainly, this is not a comfort to anyone who is losing their job. But I don’t remember anyone panicking about an unemployment crisis pre-pandemic
48.
by arctic-true 8mo ago
They may be victims of their own success here. At a certain point, if you can consistently make perfect images indistinguishable from reality, you’re done improving. All that’s left to do is make it faster or cheaper or better-aligned - but
49.
by arctic-true 8mo ago
One thing I notice is that the voices in video AI are absolute hogwash. Voice AI is great, video AI is great, but AI videos where humans speak give me the feel of really poorly dubbed foreign TV - the timing is not quite right and the faci
50.
by arctic-true 8mo ago
That’s a fair point. But in most markets you don’t have a half dozen competitors jumping down your throat trying to give you the same service ad-free. Netflix can introduce ads without major quitting because you can’t watch their content el
51.
by arctic-true 8mo ago
When OpenAI starts requiring a payment, or showing an ad before it starts translating, will they continue? Or will they use the Google Translate app, which can do this locally? (Or for that matter Gemini or Grok or whatever?)
52.
by arctic-true 8mo ago
To go vertical they’d need to illustrate the value-add, a problem that the vertical competitors already have. Why use Claude for Accountants at $300/month when regular Claude will do the same thing for much less? The stock answer is th
53.
by arctic-true 8mo ago
I had this same thought. Seems fairly easy to just put off a strong false signal. If you don’t want anyone to know that you live in Finland, make a point to constantly mention how much you enjoy living in Peru.
54.
by arctic-true 8mo ago
They’d have an entire country of geniuses prepared to defend against the antitrust allegations, who’s to stop them? /s
55.
by arctic-true 8mo ago
Those developer quotes are tough to read. Rate limits are going to hit like a truck when the labs eventually need to make a profit.
56.
by arctic-true 8mo ago
I am pretty confident from my own experience that the study’s conclusion is broadly true. But the study leaves open one obvious alternative explanation: people who have enough free time to exercise regularly (and exercise was used as a sta
57.
by arctic-true 8mo ago
Ah, that’s my mistake. Thank you. I saw 2023, I thought GPT-3. Even still, people talk about GPT-4 today like it was a quaint little demo. It was a magnificent achievement, it scared the pants off of a lot of people, and sparked a new roun
58.
by arctic-true 8mo ago
There is definitely growing hesitancy in the market, but pulling back at this juncture could set off a full-on race to the bottom, because it would disprove the original point (“all the smart tech companies are all-in, so there must be prof
59.
by arctic-true 8mo ago
The fact that the companies that have already shoveled billions of dollars at this are continuing to do so is equally consistent with AI improvement and adoption stalling as it is with infinite improvement and widespread adoption. Yes, it’s
60.
by arctic-true 8mo ago
Researchers looked at GPT-3 in 2023 and saw “sparks of AGI”. The saying “feel the AGI” became widespread not long after, if I’m remembering right. We’ve been saying AGI is right around the corner for a while now. And of course, if you predi

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