arctic-true

3 ms·

1.
by arctic-true 6d ago
Unfortunately focusing on the fanfic prevents everyone from focusing on the genuinely world-altering threat of cybersecurity becoming completely impossible for a while. But perhaps that’s the point, because you can be held liable for that,
2.
by arctic-true 11d ago
Gary Marcus is an especially puzzling addition. If I recall correctly, he has made statements along the lines that superintelligence this century is more likely than not. If you’re AGI-pilled that might read as bearish, but that is still
3.
by arctic-true 18d ago
Buried under the drama is the fact that OpenAI is claiming that an internal model they’ve been training for less than two weeks is more than twice as capable in mathematics as Astra, which was only made public a week ago. Even if this impr
4.
by arctic-true 20d ago
You can have a great “writing style” and still put together really crappy long-form work. The problem is that AI writing, particularly creative writing, is too repetitive, too predictable, too trope-laden. All of the things you say are ver
5.
by arctic-true 20d ago
I don’t even see why they have to be bioengineered. We have all-natural human beings doing this right now, except they are rubber-stamping human rather than artificial directives.
6.
by arctic-true 20d ago
I suspect some amount of long form writing will go the way of code - long form writing for the purpose of consumption by other AIs. Writing as a means of exchanging qualitative information, with no regard for how the reader will feel about
7.
by arctic-true 20d ago
I guess I don’t see why “everyone will die” should scare me more than “almost everyone, including me, will die but someone somewhere might survive in a barely-habitable world.” And this is where I think some of the problem comes from. A lo
8.
by arctic-true 20d ago
Presumably, a truly superintelligent AI in a utopia scenario could figure out a way to enable people to continue working, even if the work doesn’t actually contribute anything, if it is really the case that work is essential to human wellbe
9.
by arctic-true 20d ago
This is exactly correct. You see some discussion of a superintelligent AI becoming “superhumanly persuasive,” such that it can talk anyone into doing anything, and using this as a means to take power. But even with AI that was orders of m
10.
by arctic-true 20d ago
Otherwise-rational and moral people do bad things at the behest of powerful superintelligences with vast resources all the time. We call them “corporations,” and they can convince bright-eyed college graduates to do just about anything. N
11.
by arctic-true 23d ago
Autonomy is not the same as general intelligence. We already have all kinds of fully autonomous technologies that are nowhere close to generally intelligent. Plus, at a certain level of abstraction, human beings also need to be “prompted”
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by arctic-true 23d ago
I like this much better than chucking random numbers and letters at it like OAI was doing a year or so ago. I’d much rather have civilization destroyed by something called Astra or Fable than GPT-6.8s-latest.
13.
by arctic-true 23d ago
The blog post says 99.9%. Oddly, it does better on ARC-AGI-3 than it does on version 1 or 2 of the same benchmark (though gets 95+ on all three)
14.
by arctic-true 24d ago
I’m very curious about your esoteric public figures benchmark, do you ask it in English or Korean to identify the person? Does it change the result? I wonder if having data labeled in only a given language (or web sources in only a given la
15.
by arctic-true 25d ago
I think that is tied to the general trend that people see themselves as far less replaceable than others. And I’m not sure that people who don’t need a salary are exactly objective about it - unless you mean people who live off the state or
16.
by arctic-true 25d ago
This is exactly right. Now, that does mean something about Zitron: he’s a pundit, not an expert or a forecasting genius. You could point to any number of analogous booster types. Twitter/X somehow loves pushing these people onto my rec
17.
by arctic-true 25d ago
To commit fraud you have to lie, deceive, or conceal. All of this bonkers financing is happening in broad daylight, announced to the markets, and met with rave reviews. I tend to agree with Zitron that the whole thing is a castle made of sa
18.
by arctic-true 28d ago
A lot of folks here are misreading “irreparable harm,” which means “something that cannot be fixed with money later.” Even if this somehow screwed Anthropic so badly that they lost the AI race and Dario was relegated to the permanent underc
19.
by arctic-true 1mo ago
It began in 1953 when thorazine was introduced on the premise that it would allow previously institutionalized people to live normal lives with only outpatient care. This turbocharged the movement to shutter mental institutions, and their
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by arctic-true 1mo ago
It would be very difficult to enforce, but a mechanism to force scrapers to pay would probably be more effective than this. The social media sites can live without local news. Web search and LLM providers cannot live without new data and
21.
by arctic-true 2mo ago
Difference there is you need a physical body firing the ghost gun. There can be witnesses who saw a shooter, you can look at cameras to track their physical location, and if they discard the weapon they leave fingerprints.
22.
by arctic-true 2mo ago
How are you going to figure that out? You can’t capture an agent in a jar and convince it to confess. As we saw with the HF incident, even highly sophisticated actors need a good chunk of time and manpower to trace these things. And I su
23.
by arctic-true 2mo ago
I think the “in their neighborhoods” thing is really the key. These things have got to be poison for property values. Younger, less wealthy people have economic anxiety about AI for fear of displacement and oppose data centers on that bas
24.
by arctic-true 2mo ago
Unfortunately I agree and I think we are going to be trapped in a double whammy scenario: genAI is good enough to justify significant layoffs without being profitable enough to justify the investment. The pain on the stock market will caus
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by arctic-true 2mo ago
The failures of past doomsayers are important to keep in mind. It’s hard to say “well, but we know things they didn’t know at the time, but this time that won’t happen.” I will observe, however, that Uber’s revenues come from consumers.
26.
by arctic-true 2mo ago
Here again you have network effects, though. I personally have an iPhone because it’s what all my friends and family use and there are communication functions that are much easier to engage with if you all have the same sort of device. It’
27.
by arctic-true 2mo ago
The cash burn is not the problem. You can’t build a big business without it. The difference is network effects. With ride sharing apps, you need a lot of drivers and riders collected on one platform. It is nearly always better, for both
28.
by arctic-true 2mo ago
Several top level comments are attacks on the author’s credibility that do not engage the substance of the piece at all. I think the fundamental problem for people on all sides of the various debates surrounding AI is that “AI is a powerfu
29.
by arctic-true 6mo ago
This is an underappreciated point. The economy would likely be in freefall without AI. Yes, things look bleak for current college grads. The bitter pill to swallow is that they began college in the boom times of 2021-22, and they saw the c
30.
by arctic-true 6mo ago
China probably doesn’t accept Dominican pesos, either, and yet you’d be hard pressed to say that somebody with 100 billion Dominican pesos just has some random numbers. If you can exchange something for another form of value, then it has v

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