arctic-true

6 ms·

61.
by arctic-true 8mo ago
This is exactly right. And assuming organizations use the gains to cut headcount rather than boost total productivity, a 10% reduction in white collar employment would still be an era-defining systemic shock to the economy.
62.
by arctic-true 8mo ago
The easiest job to automate is someone else’s.
63.
by arctic-true 8mo ago
You could have beaten the returns of most financial professionals over the last several years by just parking your money in the S&P 500, and yet plenty of people are still making a lucrative career out of underperforming it. In some fie
64.
by arctic-true 8mo ago
A simpler answer would simply be that, if you lay someone off on the basis that an AI can replace their entire job functionality, you have to keep paying their salary dollar for dollar until they find something else to do. This incentivize
65.
by arctic-true 8mo ago
This gives me a lot of hope for a decentralized future for all kinds of service industries. Why would you go to a big-name accounting firm where the small number of humans can only give you a sliver of attention, when you can go to a one-ma
66.
by arctic-true 8mo ago
Let’s say you adopt a puppy, and you don’t discipline it and you let it act aggressively. It grows up to be a big, angry dog. You’re so careless, in fact, that your puppy becomes the leader of a band of local strays. You still feed the pupp
67.
by arctic-true 8mo ago
I think it is usually the opposite - presidents nominate judges they think will agree with them. There’s really nothing a president can do once the judge is sworn in, and we have seen some federal judges take pretty drastic swings in their
68.
by arctic-true 8mo ago
This is something I hadn’t considered. Most of the “mechanical” stuff is handed off to clerks - who, in turn, get a ringside seat to the real work of the judiciary, helping to prepare them to one day fill those shoes. (So please don’t get
69.
by arctic-true 8mo ago
“Ladies and gentlemen of the jury, I actually asked ChatGPT and it said my client is not guilty.”
70.
by arctic-true 8mo ago
This is basically how the administrative courts work now - an ALJ takes a first pass at your case, and then you can complain about it to a district court, who can review it without doing their own fact-finding. But the reason we can do thi
71.
by arctic-true 8mo ago
But who controls the computer? It can’t be the government, because the government will sometimes be a litigant before the computer. It can’t be a software company, because that company may have its own agenda (and could itself be called to
72.
by arctic-true 8mo ago
Choice-of-law is also generally a statutory issue, so common law is not generally a factor - if every case ever decided was contrary to the statute, the statute would still be correct.
73.
by arctic-true 8mo ago
What’s interesting here from a legal perspective is that they acknowledge a somewhat unsettled question of law regarding South Dakota’s choice-of-law regime. The AI got the “right” answer every time, but I am curious to know if it ever gra
74.
by arctic-true 8mo ago
This is super interesting. But I have to wonder how much it costs on the back end - it sounds like it’s essentially just running a boatload of specialized agents, constantly, throughout the whole interaction (and with super-token-rich input
75.
by arctic-true 8mo ago
America uses prisons to warehouse the mentally ill. We also have the rare combination of extremely high rates of violence - our rate of violent gun deaths per 100,000 is in the top 5 globally, slotting in between Mexico and Venezuela - and
76.
by arctic-true 8mo ago
Yes, and that’s also why “career success” here really only means “modern era white collar career success”. In other times and other fields it can look very different.
77.
by arctic-true 8mo ago
I feel like this ends with drunk morons accidentally creating Waymo barricades and totally ruining Mardi Gras
78.
by arctic-true 8mo ago
It could also be that we have been in an economy-wide speculative bubble for a couple of years. Whispers of an AI bubble were a way to self-soothe and avoid the fact that we are in an everything bubble.
79.
by arctic-true 9mo ago
Now there’s an idea. You could get artists to pay for ads just like other advertisers, and instead of hearing an ad for a product that takes you completely out of music mode, you have to listen to a whole song (or the first minute, or what
80.
by arctic-true 9mo ago
I think the idea is that there are higher startup costs to brew at home. Even a cheap coffee machine is going to cost more than a cup of coffee at a diner, in the same way that a computer that can run a local LLM is going to cost more than
81.
by arctic-true 10mo ago
Interesting, thank you for that. I’d be curious to see the data for 2025. I was basing my take off Google trends data - the kind of person who goes to ChatGPT by googling “chatGPT” seems to be using it less in the summer.
82.
by arctic-true 10mo ago
Usage plunges on the weekends and during the summer, suggesting that a significant portion of users are students using ChatGPT for free or at heavily subsidized rates to do homework (i.e., extremely basic work that is extraordinarily well-r
83.
by arctic-true 10mo ago
Cheaper lawyers can’t afford to pay for as many research librarians, paralegals, junior attorneys, writing consultants, jury consultants, etc. LLMs may level the playing field in this regard. But of course, the expensive lawyer might be abl
84.
by arctic-true 10mo ago
When I was thinking about law school the big panic was about e-discovery tools: we wouldn’t need many lawyers anymore since we didn’t need to rifle through boxes of physical paper anymore! What happened instead was that, with the burden of
85.
by arctic-true 10mo ago
Someone publishes this story every 3 months. One more gullible senior attorney getting on the hype train is not news. LLMs are very, very, very good at making words look pretty, which has always been a cherished talent that lawyers liked t