anthony_r

22 ms·

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by anthony_r 5y ago
Yup, it's literally just "being bearish". If you want to see people "being bearish" or "being bullish" just flip on the CNBC or something and listen. You either claim that the interest rate (or various ris
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by anthony_r 5y ago
The market value of stocks and corporate bonds is pretty much always larger than the book value of the underlying companies. If this is not the case you've found yourself in a 1931-type of a bargain. The delta between the book value an
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by anthony_r 5y ago
> "As the total value of the global financial market outgrew the value of the real economy" - the first sentence What the hell is this supposed to mean? What is "value" here, can financial markets conjure more house
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by anthony_r 5y ago
Let's end, indeed :)
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by anthony_r 5y ago
> you're not making a great case for why people don't need to know what a sigma algebra is I can assure you most people that do stats / data mining / big data / machine learning do not know or do not remember any
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by anthony_r 5y ago
This is a super common issue that people are raising over and over again, but there's already a solution for this: split teaching into technical and non-technical. In some countries universities are split along this axis. Take statisti
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by anthony_r 5y ago
This is not directly about 51% attacks. This is about chain splits.
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by anthony_r 5y ago
No, that's only one example. Or rather a simple pattern for how to spot some antifragility in the wild (has it been around for a long time? well then it's likely antifragile). Consider a portfolio of out of the money options, with
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by anthony_r 5y ago
> Antifragile: what doesn't kill you makes you stronger No, you've missed the point of the book (or haven't read it). It's about that some things become better in the presence of error/noise/damage/vo
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by anthony_r 5y ago
Shocking. (sorry for a dumb comment but I tried to match the surprise value and the significance of this finding; you will not believe what comes next!)
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by anthony_r 6y ago
Yes there are commonly clever people that know how to play organizational ladders with minimum amount of work in every sufficiently large organization. Also a fair amount of "morons".
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by anthony_r 6y ago
Or maybe finally learn mechanics 101 - what the conservation of momentum is. The kind of stuff we expect to understand from smart 16 year olds. This is the physics equivalent of someone writing a brute-force recursive SAT solver and wonderi
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by anthony_r 6y ago
Well people that buy cars actually like the VW's more, look up sales/registration data in Europe.
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by anthony_r 6y ago
Such office hours could have a price. Given how much consultants charge it wouldn't be unreasonable to charge $500/hour (being a maintainer comes with deep knowledge).
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by anthony_r 6y ago
Yes, it did in fact cost 500x more to buy, temporarily. Price is not determined by the cost of production but by supply and demand. Haven't you seen the extent of damage in Texas? What do you think people were willing to pay for electr
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by anthony_r 6y ago
It's not the infrastructure that (temporarily) costs this much. It's the power that runs through it. There was simply no power. > Unusually frigid temperatures knocked out nearly half of the state’s power plants in mid-Februar
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by anthony_r 6y ago
What exactly is a startup here? (serious question)
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by anthony_r 6y ago
The "mania" is in the public perception & pricing of securities. Many "mania" companies were legitimate, or at least had legitimate parts in it (look at the example of GameStop, there's nothing wrong with the co
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by anthony_r 6y ago
VA Linux is one of those prime examples of stock market mania. Close behind in terms of scale and similar in terms of philosophy/narrative (of the good small man sticking it to the evil big machine) to what we saw recently with GameSto
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by anthony_r 6y ago
I tried doing that sometime in mid or maybe late 2000's. The manufacturer said I'd have to return the hard disk (on which the system was technically installed, on some shadow partition) and pay for the replacement cost of the disk
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by anthony_r 6y ago
You're not seeing the other side of the coin - the huge amount of spam and abuse that such systems correctly identify and remove. If every abuser requests those explanations (which they will) there will be far more spam going around th
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by anthony_r 6y ago
Lol no, that would be a very serious accounting fraud. That is exactly what Enron did - they used to sign a contract and immediately book all the projected profits. Here's how it works: 1) If the goods weren't delivered and th
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by anthony_r 6y ago
Exactly. Only one of these paths does not have a hidden/probabilistic cost. Hard to say what's the market rate for exposing yourself to criminal prosecution, it's not like there's a hedging market for such things. Though
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by anthony_r 6y ago
I did not distinguish between large and small investors, but pretty sure there are enough institutions on board.
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by anthony_r 6y ago
To be honest most of the "credit" comes from Wall Street. Yes, Tesla wouldn't have been profitable if you subtracted the credits but it is absolutely not worth as much as the market says with the credits or even with 3x the c
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by anthony_r 6y ago
Not my website, also I don't vouch for the accuracy :). Though I do use it myself.
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by anthony_r 6y ago
BTW, as of late Tesla isn't at all the big leader over there: https://eu-evs.com/marketShare
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by anthony_r 6y ago
All developed countries "emit" a lot of CO2 by importing goods manufactured overseas in countries that are heavily reliant on fossil fuels including coal. There's just no going around the fact that this is a global problem.
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by anthony_r 6y ago
It is 1% of all US federal tax revenue. It is not insignificant. Also, insane that your health plan costs as much as the average citizen's share in all federal taxes (which also include corporate taxes, tariffs and whatnot).
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by anthony_r 6y ago
Mortgages are so f* insane when you do the basic maths, such as 1/downpayment to get the leverage. If you just presented the numbers differently nobody would have ever signed up for one except people like Victor Niederhoffer. And on to

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