angelzen

69 ms·

1. 631.▲
   by angelzen 5y ago

   The silver lining of the covid pandemic is that kids have at a minuscule risk of covid complications. Smaller than flu, both hospitalizations and fatalities.
2. 632.▲
   by angelzen 5y ago

   For teens, UK [edit:] Chief Medical Officer recommends but not mandates first dose, and does not recommend second dose at least until spring. The benefits are marginal. 2 ICU prevented admissions / million first doses 87 hospital preve
3. 633.▲
   by angelzen 5y ago

   I have already lived through a decade of (hyper)inflation in a different country. At the time the grassroots solution was to establish a shadow economy based on USD. I find it very interesting, in Chinese proverb kind of way, to see how the
4. 634.▲
   by angelzen 5y ago

   For perspective, current federal, state and local tax burden is $6.91 trillion. I am very thankful that finally somebody is doing something about the economic anarchy this country has suffered for so long. Given that there is so much theore
5. 635.▲
   by angelzen 5y ago

   Possibly a side effect of biased data collection. "... I had gone to a house party in Montgomery County. There were 15 adults there, all of us fully vaccinated." "... Then, I started to hear that a few other people who had be
6. 636.▲
   by angelzen 5y ago

   And at every step of the short way, people smugly displaying their cool: 'Oh, primitive luddites and their unfounded fear of the wonders of tech. We've been living in Fukushima for 100 years, just build the damn nuclear plant on t
7. 637.▲
   by angelzen 5y ago

   Generally speaking, worst case scenario notwithstanding, adults should get vaccinated (1) for their own good. OTOH, part of being adult in a free society is making choices for oneself, good or bad. We have plenty of bad choices leading to h
8. 638.▲
   by angelzen 5y ago

   Those that admit they are drunk and take an Uber instead of driving do not cause accidents. It's the 'Oh, it's just a couple of beers (narrator voice: and two vodka shots, and three martinis.)' that choose to drive while
9. 639.▲
   by angelzen 5y ago

   Not a good analogy. Many doctors chose to bypass chemotherapy and tumor excisions. Chances are the gain is a handful of years of utmost misery. If that. https://www.fredhutch.org/en/news/center-news/2014/
10. 640.▲
    by angelzen 5y ago

    Vaccinated people also spread covid. The #1 population-level defense against infection disease is self-isolation on symptoms onset. It is possible that vaccinated people spread covid more aggressively than unvaccinated, because the vaccines
11. 641.▲
    by angelzen 5y ago

    Very true. Vaccines have helped in great measure. OTOH, there are other forces at play. The very existence of covid waves that come and recede much faster than the increase in the vaccination rate should be an indication that vaccines, whil
12. 642.▲
    by angelzen 5y ago

    Human nature never changes. In that passage CS Lewis is literally a prophet foreseeing the major role partisan media will play in unleashing hell during the Yugoslav wars of the 1990s. Also Rwanda and Radio des Mille Collines. https:/
13. 643.▲
    by angelzen 5y ago

    s/amusing/tragic/
14. 644.▲
    by angelzen 5y ago

    Text: Most elephants are grey. Sometimes they can be white. They are definitely not black. Headline: The Science is in: Elephants are White Pushback: No, elephants are not white. Twitter: NO ONE EVER CLAIMED ELEPHANTS ARE WHITE. or STOP SPR
15. 645.▲
    by angelzen 5y ago

    The American situation is very concerning. I suspect it is correlated with the high temperature of the American public discourse. Whenever we encounter a different opinion, we assume the worst and immediately reach for the flamethrower. Not
16. 646.▲
    by angelzen 5y ago

    There are no mandatory annual shots. Tired of personalization of the disease. I'm not 'hell bent' to do anything. Covid is endemic, there is no herd immunity. The only question is how to manage the severity of the disease, fo
17. 647.▲
    by angelzen 5y ago

    Vaccine protection seems to substantially diminish over time / virus evolution. Israel is boosting with third shot. UK August data shows same rate of infection vax/unvax for over 40s, and only half reduction in infection rate for
18. 648.▲
    by angelzen 5y ago

    An unvaccinated child has less chance of severe covid compared to a vaccinated adult. Covid is different between child and adults, reasonable to hypothesize that transmission is also different. > Evidence from studies primarily done befo
19. 649.▲
    by angelzen 5y ago

    Everyone under the purview of Biden's decree.
20. 650.▲
    by angelzen 5y ago

    There is also rate data from UK on covid delta (week 32-35 2021), breakdown by vax status & age, see Figure 2a. Cases under 40 is 1/2 vax/unvax, cases over 40 is actually slightly larger for vax than unvax. I had a sense vacci
21. 651.▲
    by angelzen 5y ago

    [Fair enough, reformulated for better nuance.] Sadly, the ZeroCovid ship has sailed. * Covid vaccines only partially prevent infection or transmission. To the best of my understanding even 100% vaccination cannot prevent outbreaks. * We liv
22. 652.▲
    by angelzen 5y ago

    The Yale/Harvard/Stanford team at https://covidestim.org estimates that R has receded under 1 for most states / counties. Much better than a month ago. This is a good indication we are past peak delta. The medical
23. 653.▲
    by angelzen 5y ago

    The flu shot is not mandatory, nor should it be. Partly becase low effectiveness, partly because it's sensitive to mutations, partly because the risk of complications, while not zero, is relatively low. Polio vaccine is a bit of an out
24. 654.▲
    by angelzen 5y ago

    Thanks for mentioning R. For a bit of good news, current estimates are that most states/counties currently have R < 1, https://covidestim.org . Hopefully we've passed the worst of Delta. I have no doubt vaccines help
25. 655.▲
    by angelzen 5y ago

    Thanks!
26. 656.▲
    by angelzen 5y ago

    That according to CDC data 1/3 of vax people are going to develop an infection. There is no way to purge covid infections from the population, not even with 100% vax rate. In a population 67% vaccinated or higher, there are going to be
27. 657.▲
    by angelzen 5y ago

    If only vaccines were to prevent covid spread. 'CDC: COVID-19 Vaccines 66% Effective Against Delta Variant'. https://www.webmd.com/vaccines/covid-19-vaccine/news/2021082...
28. 658.▲
    by angelzen 5y ago

    CDC says vaccines are only 66 percent effective at preventing Delta infection. As far as I can understand, this means 34% of vaccinated people develop a covid infection. I'm having a hard time squaring this with 'vaccines prevent
29. 659.▲
    by angelzen 5y ago

    > 10. Riemersma KA, Grogan BE, Kirta-Yarbo A, et al. Vaccinated and Unvaccinated Individuals Have Similar Viral Loads in Communities with a High Prevalence of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta Variant. medRxiv. 2021 Jul 31; https://doi.org
30. 660.▲
    by angelzen 5y ago

    Nature very rarely tries to splice pox with influenza. Humans, OTOH, do all sorts of unnatural experiments. See the log of US-funded research in Wuhan.