7 ms·

Vaccine protection seems to substantially diminish over time / virus evolution. Israel is boosting with third shot. UK August data shows same rate of infection

Vaccine protection seems to substantially diminish over time / virus evolution. Israel is boosting with third shot. UK August data shows same rate of infection vax/unvax for over 40s, and only half reduction in infection rate for under 40s. (Yeah, I know, severe infection protection is much better, so far). Pfizer CEO is on-record concerned about vaccine escape and ready to prepare new jabs on a 3 month notice. Covid is here to stay. What is the long term plan? 'Boost' every 6 months with an ever changing cocktail that has not passed any clinical trials? In perpetuity? This is insanity. I do not see any long term way out of covid pandemic other than natural immunity. Some studies have shown it is much stronger than vaccine protection. I hope they are right, or else the future is grim. Personally I really really hope that vax + mild infection works. WE DO have a population for which natural immunity can be acquired at minimum cost: under 18s. For which the risk of covid death is ~1-2% of the already tiny risk of death from all other causes. Leave the kids alone. What doesn't help: Messaging that so incredibly determined to pretend that natural immunity plays no role and that covid risk for a 10 year old is the same as covid risk for an 80 year old (in fact it is 1/1000).

jasonlaramburu 5y ago
> I do not see any long term way out of covid pandemic other than natural immunity. We get annual boosters for many viruses. If you’re really hell bent on getting covid, your likelihood of severe illness is 10x less with at least one dose of the vaccine, and your immunity will be higher than infection alone. The messaging that natural immunity is the only way out, and that getting the virus is somehow ‘better’ than the vaccine is ludicrous.
- angelzen 5y ago
  There are no mandatory annual shots. Tired of personalization of the disease. I'm not 'hell bent' to do anything. Covid is endemic, there is no herd immunity. The only question is how to manage the severity of the disease, for all the infection events to occur in the long run. I'm vaccinated and keep an eye on https://www.novavax.com/covid-19-coronavirus-vaccine-candidate-updates https://www.novavax.com/covid-19-coronavirus-vaccine-candida.... Or do I need to tattoo 'Pfizer' on my forehead to be allowed to participate in society?
  - jasonlaramburu 5y ago
    The vaccines are remarkably effective against death and severe disease on all timescales measured. What appears to decline is sterilizing immunity, meaning after 6-8months you may show symptoms if infected. It is unlikely boosters will be mandated for all. And to be clear, this vaccine denial is a uniquely American problem. In Denmark over 80% of the eligible population is voluntarily vaccinated. They are now able to do away with virtually all Covid restrictions.
    - angelzen 5y ago
      The American situation is very concerning. I suspect it is correlated with the high temperature of the American public discourse. Whenever we encounter a different opinion, we assume the worst and immediately reach for the flamethrower. Not sure what to do about it, I caught myself doing it and I like to believe I am on-guard for this kind of behavior. I substantively edit my messages to remove first draft inflammatory words. Perhaps the old email advice: put it in drafts and send it tomorrow morning. I've been thinking lately that even on HN having a 'parent upvoted your reply' signal might be an interesting experiment for promoting civil discourse.
    - DenisM 5y ago
      Sterilizing immunity means preventing infection, not just symptoms. And it’s practically unattainable, esp for COVID. https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20210203-why-vaccinated-people-may-still-be-able-to-spread-covid-19 https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20210203-why-vaccinated-p... Also existence of Denmark with high vax rates does not imply that the problem is uniquely American. To wit, Russia is even farther ahead in that regard. So no, it’s not uniquely American.
      - jasonlaramburu 5y ago
        Sorry I’m not following. Russia has a much lower vaccination rate than the US: ~30% versus 54%. They also have an arguably inferior vaccine.
        5y ago

jasonlaramburu 5y ago

> I do not see any long term way out of covid pandemic other than natural immunity. We get annual boosters for many viruses. If you’re really hell bent on getting covid, your likelihood of severe illness is 10x less with at least one dose of the vaccine, and your immunity will be higher than infection alone. The messaging that natural immunity is the only way out, and that getting the virus is somehow ‘better’ than the vaccine is ludicrous.

angelzen 5y ago
There are no mandatory annual shots. Tired of personalization of the disease. I'm not 'hell bent' to do anything. Covid is endemic, there is no herd immunity. The only question is how to manage the severity of the disease, for all the infection events to occur in the long run. I'm vaccinated and keep an eye on https://www.novavax.com/covid-19-coronavirus-vaccine-candidate-updates https://www.novavax.com/covid-19-coronavirus-vaccine-candida.... Or do I need to tattoo 'Pfizer' on my forehead to be allowed to participate in society?
- jasonlaramburu 5y ago
  The vaccines are remarkably effective against death and severe disease on all timescales measured. What appears to decline is sterilizing immunity, meaning after 6-8months you may show symptoms if infected. It is unlikely boosters will be mandated for all. And to be clear, this vaccine denial is a uniquely American problem. In Denmark over 80% of the eligible population is voluntarily vaccinated. They are now able to do away with virtually all Covid restrictions.
  - angelzen 5y ago
    The American situation is very concerning. I suspect it is correlated with the high temperature of the American public discourse. Whenever we encounter a different opinion, we assume the worst and immediately reach for the flamethrower. Not sure what to do about it, I caught myself doing it and I like to believe I am on-guard for this kind of behavior. I substantively edit my messages to remove first draft inflammatory words. Perhaps the old email advice: put it in drafts and send it tomorrow morning. I've been thinking lately that even on HN having a 'parent upvoted your reply' signal might be an interesting experiment for promoting civil discourse.
  - DenisM 5y ago
    Sterilizing immunity means preventing infection, not just symptoms. And it’s practically unattainable, esp for COVID. https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20210203-why-vaccinated-people-may-still-be-able-to-spread-covid-19 https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20210203-why-vaccinated-p... Also existence of Denmark with high vax rates does not imply that the problem is uniquely American. To wit, Russia is even farther ahead in that regard. So no, it’s not uniquely American.
    - jasonlaramburu 5y ago
      Sorry I’m not following. Russia has a much lower vaccination rate than the US: ~30% versus 54%. They also have an arguably inferior vaccine.
      - 5y ago