adventured

6 ms·

31.
by adventured 1mo ago
The good enough level isn't ever arriving. We're in the first or second inning for LLMs. They will rapidly subdivide in complexity, they will not stagnate in the next decade. Beyond the model, when would you freeze processor perfo
32.
by adventured 1mo ago
The anecdote is likely a false rip of the actual story: [2017] Speaking at an event Tuesday, Scott Forstall, who lead Apple's iOS software division under Jobs, recounted the surprising history behind the company's first touchscree
33.
by adventured 1mo ago
Most likely it'll bifurcate. The US will be (is) forced to work with everyone not named China or Russia, to ensure it can compete with China's concentrated industrial might. That means making iPhones in India, or Mexico, or Vietna
34.
by adventured 1mo ago
They're trying to find a moat in the AI era, for their relatively gigantic news business (and they're among the few still standing giants in news). Most of these organizations are very scared of what AI might do to them.
35.
by adventured 1mo ago
The best response is always: "That's not up to you." When people claim they have nothing to hide, always point out that's not up to their determination. That freaks them out, it disarms their shrink-from-confrontation mo
36.
by adventured 2mo ago
There's nothing special about 'natural' intelligence as opposed to 'artificial' intelligence, such that we need to concern ourselves with anthropomorphizing mattering any longer. Those days are over. The age of the
37.
by adventured 2mo ago
Microsoft's main business... is extracting money from the government. Please, elaborate on where Microsoft is getting a hundred billion dollars plus per year from the government. By an extreme margin Microsoft's main business is p
38.
by adventured 2mo ago
OpenAI needs to immediately move to acquire Cerebras. Nvidia's extreme margin is the opportunity for OpenAI's cost reduction. Buying Cerebras would pay for itself and they should take all of its future production (after filling re
39.
by adventured 2mo ago
Looking back nearly 80 years, what has been the limit to transistor demand so far? Unlimited. What has been the limit to electricity demand globally? Unlimited. We can't get enough and never will. Costs have to become pretty severe to
40.
by adventured 2mo ago
Taalas will be one of the great disaster investments of the early AI era. It'll be a near total write-down. The absolute worst market time to etch a model to a chip is right now (very rapid iteration). There is no scenario where they c
41.
by adventured 2mo ago
$55 ($9.95 CD + $45 activation) in August 1996 = $116 today, per the BLS inflation adjustment calculator. Gold was ~$400 back in 1996. Now it's ~11 times that. An expensive game however you gib it.
42.
by adventured 2mo ago
99.9%+ of the tech worker population will never be able to build their own servers to run future frontier models. Kimi 3 is an indication of what's coming. These models will keep getting drastically larger. The hardware isn't gett
43.
by adventured 2mo ago
Given how extraordinarily fast all of this is moving, it's a particular absurdity to attempt these in the moment pontifications. AI is a steak machine, I declare that is what it is. You mean GPT 3.5? That's a mere four years ago.
44.
by adventured 2mo ago
US household assets are fairly well distributed between real-estate and equity markets. China for example previously had ~70% of its household wealth tied up in real-estate, which has suffered enormous declines over the past four or five ye
45.
by adventured 2mo ago
How many lives has the US lost? What has Iran lost so far in the conflict with the US and Israel (a conflict which is not over)? The propaganda attempting to spin this as setting up as a strategic defeat for the US, is almost comical. As is
46.
by adventured 3mo ago
Four more 2nm (or below) fabs in Arizona. That's bleeding-edge or very close to it.
47.
by adventured 3mo ago
China won in desktop PCs? Nope. China won in cloud services? Nope, not even close. They had to clone AWS just to try to keep up. China won in mobile? Nope. Although they're very competitive there. China won in search? Nope. Baidu who?
48.
by adventured 3mo ago
You mean other than the zillion dollars of infrastructure you need to run these systems for a billion users. And the extreme cost to sustain that operation day to day. And the cost to upgrade the infrastructure forever. Remind me which enti
49.
by adventured 3mo ago
China isn't undercutting anything. Kimi has to be hosted somewhere and is extraordinarily expensive to operate at Fable-levels of capabilities. The moat is (and will always be) the cost to actually operate these models, and that cost w
50.
by adventured 3mo ago
People endlessly claimed the same thing about DeepSeek upon its release. they claim it every single time a very large cutting edge model is released out of China. It's a combination of propaganda, some truth, and the faux open culture
51.
by adventured 3mo ago
I'm pretty sure the Chinese cloning isn't being arrived at for free regardless. Fable is quite expensive for example. If Anthropic has a real problem with API use, they can always raise the price.
52.
by adventured 3mo ago
Because no VC will give you $5-$10 billion in cash to attempt a catch-up run with Anthropic, OpenAI, and Gemini at this point. Untold billions have been pushed into Grok and it can't keep up. X has had the GPUs, the engineers (reasonab
53.
by adventured 3mo ago
> Either Chinese labs are worth more or OpenAI/Anthropic are worth less. One of those is true The reason that's not inherently accurate is because it assumes the economic models are identical. That couldn't be further from
54.
by adventured 3mo ago
The same kind of speculation questioned whether Facebook would ever have a significant business. Before that, the same was asked about Google's business. If GPT can maintain or grow usage, the ad dollars will be there given the enormou
55.
by adventured 3mo ago
They seem to be expanding even across rural America. These days it's fairly common for small and medium size towns to have access to 500mbps-1gbps for $50-$90 per month, and essentially all small cities and above. Reddit is overflowing
56.
U.S. murder rate approaches a record low(npr.org)
7 points by adventured 3mo ago|0 comments
57.
by adventured 4mo ago
I assume you're not confused about the fact that DeepSeek winning would be against US self-interest, and the thriving of OpenAI + Anthropic domestically and globally is very much in the national interest of the US. Even if both groups
58.
by adventured 4mo ago
> The abundant supermarkets were not a product of free markets, they were a propaganda piece. The US has abundant supermarkets to this day. It was overwhelmingly a product of the market economy and remains so. The US has between 45,000 a
59.
by adventured 4mo ago
Eat fewer calories. Consume as little added sugar as possible. You don't have to eat much better. You can trivially supplement. It's far more important to eat less.
60.
by adventured 4mo ago
It's not the exchange rate. It's 30 years of economic destruction and currency devaluation as the end result of horrific spending policies. If Japan doesn't right the ship, they'll sink into middle income territory over

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