Tomminn

13 ms·

91.
by Tomminn 6y ago
You only remove games as moot when Monty reveals a car, which can only happen when you haven't initially selected the car. Therefore, no games are removed as moot when you have initially selected a car, and 50% of games are remo
92.
by Tomminn 6y ago
Okay, let's go with your interpretation. Monty has now randomly chosen a door, and not revealed a car . If he had revealed a car you would have changed doors to it and won . But he didn't.[0] Now you have a choice to make. His p
93.
by Tomminn 6y ago
Step 1: Take three cards face down, one of which is an ace. Step 2: Divide it into a pair of cards, and a single card. Step 3: Reveal one of the pairs of cards. If you reveal and ace, return to step 1 since this history is eliminated from t
94.
by Tomminn 6y ago
First caveat: If he shows you a door with a car, there is literally no point switching. There's a goat behind both doors you're allowed to choose from, which are the remaining two. (Below I use non-chosen to mean non-chosen by
95.
by Tomminn 6y ago
This seems overly complicated. Here's an answer on Quora which is a more straight forward deweirdification. https://www.quora.com/In-the-monty-hall-problem-how-does-ope... Reprinted: Q: In the monty hall problem, how d
96.
by Tomminn 6y ago
Is there anything in his communication to you that suggest he intends to resell it to their client and profit himself ? Because if there isn't, I suspect this isn't something to worry about even if he legally can. He probably d
97.
by Tomminn 6y ago
This was the first thing that occurred to me. Why do they need the VC firms to change from an investment perspective? Just buy the asset class as a whole. The lesson is VC funds are more like individual stocks than index funds from an inves
98.
by Tomminn 6y ago
For the record, the correct way of doing the first math, centered such that 0 represents no change to your wages, is as follows: 0.1 * 6 - 0.5 * 0.9 = 0.15. That is, a 10% chance of a 6 fold gain, and a 90% chance of a 50% loss (-50% gain),
99.
by Tomminn 6y ago
The only way to detect deep fakes in the medium term is to keep your metrics secret. Any public paper describing a technique for detecting deep fakes is only useful because it shows you which metrics you should not invest in.
100.
by Tomminn 6y ago
High albedo is important because of its effect on the net reflectivity of the planet, not its effect of the radiation of the surface. Emissivity is the material property involved in radiation loss, and ice is highly emissive, but so is almo
101.
by Tomminn 6y ago
The solar radiation at the poles is much smaller than at the equator, so the contribution of polar ice to the total radiation-weighted albedo of the planet is much smaller than the contribution of equatorial deserts.
102.
by Tomminn 6y ago
I'm skeptical that the net effect of a desert is better than the net effect of a forest. I understand exactly why deserts are useful, but I can't imagine they're more useful than forests. Forests continuously sequester carbon
103.
by Tomminn 6y ago
Yeah, this exponential increase in spending is what made me stop donating. I used to donate, but that was when I thought what they were trying to do was amass themselves enough capital so the return on investment would fund them indefinit
104.
by Tomminn 6y ago
He later did an entire album called "Has Been" in this style, so I suspect so. Here's a taste: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ainyK6fXku0 I know this because Ben Folds had a hand in it, and I'm a long-t
105.
by Tomminn 6y ago
If you've never learnt the algorithms required to solve a Rubik's cube-- don't. Understanding and solving a cube by brute effort is a great little challenge to come back to over the years.
106.
by Tomminn 6y ago
Isn't two "utilities" enough here? Suppose we have two components-- X and Y-- which depend on two other lower-level components-- A and B. How would you draw this as a block dependency diagram without repetition? If both X and
107.
Ask HN: Did Nate Silver End Up Listening to Nassim Taleb's Critique?
13 points by Tomminn 6y ago|8 comments
108.
by Tomminn 6y ago
The lives get saved regardless. If writing a blog post makes you more likely to save an estimated 120 lives, you write the damn blog post . A society in which status seeking individuals are incentivized to publically save lives with their
109.
by Tomminn 6y ago
Printing money can only ever tax people in proportion to how much of cash they have. It doesn't tax people at all who convert all their income and wealth immediately into assets. Taxation can tax people in any way it likes.
110.
by Tomminn 6y ago
You can absolutely extinguish the virus if you have good border control. What makes you think you can't? The infection numbers exponentially decay toward zero when the replication rate is below one. At some point, the last infection re
111.
by Tomminn 7y ago
Both good corrections. But the point about the difficulty as a non-US person remains.
112.
by Tomminn 7y ago
It's true that there are some loopholes [1]. It's also true that as a permanent resident, you come under the category "US person", which some/most of the ITER law refers to, which restricts non US-persons from worki
113.
by Tomminn 7y ago
A rocket- according to US employment policy- is a missile fired in a funny direction. So you need to be a citizen with a security clearance to work for any US aerospace company. This makes the cold shoulder a little more understandable, bec
114.
by Tomminn 7y ago
Wait, are you saying that based on the very last data point? That is, based on the data point related to a day that hasn't finished updating?
115.
by Tomminn 7y ago
I find proofs like this weird. I can never quite understand what it means to say anything beyond: "whichever of {a,b,c} is the smallest is the answer to both sides". Who is this audience for which all this extra ink carries extr
116.
by Tomminn 7y ago
I think part of the problem with an approach like this is it seems sweetness itself triggers a whole path of biochemical processes that are unhelpful [1]. [1] https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/biomedres/28&#x2
117.
by Tomminn 7y ago
A lake has caught me off guard once before. But as a fully grown adult. I jumped in to swim a distance I could comfortably swim in the sea, but the slightly lower buoyancy I had in the lake caught me completely off guard. I was hundreds of
118.
by Tomminn 7y ago
That's only "how math works" under the assumption that the people who tested positive is an unbiased sample of the population who have coronavirus. That is, you're implicitly assuming you're equally likely to be tes
119.
by Tomminn 7y ago
An absolutely fair point. I don't actually have much of a bone to pick with anything that's written. It's a decent post.
120.
by Tomminn 7y ago
Whenever I see a productivity blog by someone who is enthusiastic about recent changes they've made to their life, I immediately assume the writer is quite young. As people get older, they realize that you only have the "right&quo

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