RationalDino

17 ms·

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by RationalDino 3y ago
The bad kind of diversity is projecting your ideology onto others, and deciding to like them. The good kind of diversity is attempting to understand what it would be like to think in ways that are alien to you. To consider current events, l
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by RationalDino 3y ago
> As for the "white" part, that's a very racist thing to say. I'm sorry, but you're taking offence at reality here. When I got to Usenet in the early 1990s, it was clear that most users were from North America an
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by RationalDino 3y ago
Yes. The fact that they are so good at these things is why we might reasonably ask how good they are at making predictions about the world. The fact that their predictions are not particularly good is therefore of interest.
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by RationalDino 3y ago
No, that doesn't measure that they are doing what we want them to do. That measures how effectively they can convince us that the other candidate would be worse, so you should vote for the lesser evil. On most topics, there is NO candi
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by RationalDino 3y ago
It really isn't so simple. My views on this are informed by https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/archive/money-laundering-and-... , so you might want to read that. First, there are widely known techniques to beat AML. Cr
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Are language models good at making predictions?(lesswrong.com)
48 points by RationalDino 3y ago|79 comments
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by RationalDino 3y ago
The question isn't how much crime it catches. It is how much crime it prevents in the first place. (No, I'm not suggesting that I have an answer to that question. Just that you're measuring by the wrong measuring stick.)
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by RationalDino 3y ago
That is an example of a side channel. That's the kind of thing done by people who the bank really doesn't want to offend. The bank decided it wants that to work for them. Therefore the bank created a way of making sure it works. T
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by RationalDino 3y ago
I'm not sure which part you are referring to by "exactly the same system", or to what extent patio11 is personally responsible for it. However listen to his explanations of the incentives, benefits, and downsides. Then rememb
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by RationalDino 3y ago
Yes, individuals are allowed to have a public forum for that. We have freedom of speech after all. However such a forum is going to be of particular interest for would-be money launderers. And therefore you should expect it to be monitored
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by RationalDino 3y ago
Patio11 is the best resource that I'm aware of to understand how our institutional world works. And its biases. Over and over again it is built in a way that incentivizes some behaviors, and doesn't incentivize others. One behavio
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by RationalDino 3y ago
Thank you for the recommend. Given where I now am, I don't believe that I need this. But it is a resource I will likely forward to others.
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by RationalDino 3y ago
Mental health for me as well. That's the point of https://rationaldino.substack.com/ and this pseudonymous account. Separately I have other children who were impacted by COVID and lockdowns and are part of https:&#x2F
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by RationalDino 3y ago
Yes, but the float in those insurance companies is invested by Berkshire Hathaway. So when people report on BH, they often quote the float as a pile of cash that Buffett is sitting on. I tried to verify this by looking at the financial repo
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by RationalDino 3y ago
Don't forget, reinsurance is a GIANT part of Berkshire Hathaway's business. If the right major disaster hits, they need a lot of liquid assets to pay it out. As https://www.reuters.com/article/us-berkshire-buf
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Navigating Manic Psychosis(superbowl.substack.com)
2 points by RationalDino 3y ago|0 comments
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by RationalDino 3y ago
I agree with the thesis of this post. A blog does work as a search query to find people. But some queries are easier to write than others. For example this blogger hit a key niche with discussing Ivan Illich and systems thinking. Both &quot
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by RationalDino 3y ago
The "kill the Jews" guy is a fringe case? Absolutely! But from what I see, the cancel culture crowd mostly is the problem. Usually only one side is advocating against free speech, and it isn't generally the controversial spea
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by RationalDino 3y ago
20 years ago I would have reflexively agreed with your statement. But today, many of the most intolerant people out there are loudly proclaiming their tolerance. And because their intolerance comes clothed in rhetoric about their tolerance,
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Free Speech Is in Trouble(natesilver.net)
135 points by RationalDino 3y ago|215 comments
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by RationalDino 3y ago
You only just noticed that?
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by RationalDino 3y ago
They aren't yet. But Google has a history of planning out a change, collecting evidence, then changing the rules and killing everyone who they had caught. Given that, a bunch of well-SEOed content farms are bound to be killed for suspi
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by RationalDino 3y ago
Let's turn around and look at this from the company's point of view, rather than the freelancer's. The company is looking for text that ranks well on Google SEO. That is what the writer is asked to create. The company has cau
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by RationalDino 3y ago
Which text did you enter, and into which AI detector? I tried it with my blog, and it was correctly identified by Copy Leaks as written by a human. I don't know how representative https://copyleaks.com/blog/ai-dete
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by RationalDino 3y ago
Don't they also show a trick, show the method, then do the trick again in such a way that they must have been using another method? Or am I thinking of someone else?
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by RationalDino 3y ago
At the very least they face significant clawbacks. https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/19/sbfs-parents-sued-by-ftx-for...
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by RationalDino 3y ago
Saying that it sounds like something you could have said opens the floodgates to why you could have said it. In this case, "Yeah, I could have admitted to a crime" is a quick way to go to jail. So is saying you don't recall.
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by RationalDino 3y ago
In SBF's case, Adderall withdrawal?
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by RationalDino 3y ago
Since IQ falls on a very good approximation to a bell curve, it's "close enough for government work". Besides, it is a paraphrase of a well-known George Carlin quote.
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by RationalDino 3y ago
A fun version of the forced choice is that your patter makes it come out the same. "By your choice this animal is doomed!" versus "By your choice this animal is spared!" The person still feels that they made a choice, ev

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