Pyramus

54 ms·

331.
by Pyramus 5y ago
I agree with your assessment. Also Covid mortality scales exponentially with age, and US life expectancy is 5-6 years lower than say Spain or Italy.
332.
by Pyramus 5y ago
The point is Elon knows exactly whether estimates are achievable or not, but does it anyways. There is a reason why legally Autopilot/FSD is a driver-assist system, but for marketing purposes robotaxis are just around the corner. T
333.
by Pyramus 5y ago
Ah yes, the world changing technology of putting a potential fire hazard in a narrow tunnel with no escape routes. What could possibly go wrong? [1] More information https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-RPMt_FS-s8 [1] https:&#
334.
by Pyramus 5y ago
> There are other scenarios, e.g. https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2021-02-09-common-asthma-treatment ... shows a cheap widely available steroid inhaler [...] That is a good point, I should have defined the category more br
335.
by Pyramus 5y ago
Not disagreeing with your general message regarding individual risk assessment based on age, sex, health etc. What I will say though is that you seem to be comparing to the baseline scenario "Covid stops spreading". After one year
336.
by Pyramus 5y ago
Sorry to be harsh here, but that's exactly what I meant by dodging: Parent asked for evidence that the R0 of influenza is higher on average than the R0 of SARS-Cov-2. If there are no studies to show, refer to an opinion of an epidemi
337.
by Pyramus 5y ago
By the way, now that we are already talking about R ~= 1 ... Over pretty much the last year you could observe, in different countries all around the world, that the reproduction number was 'magically' floating around 1. Only recen
338.
by Pyramus 5y ago
It's very much disputed how much 'viral interference' was or is an influence in the current pandemic, and this effect (to my knowledge) has been only studied in animal models and human tissue [1], paper from the article [2].
339.
by Pyramus 5y ago
You are dodging parent's point: > I have seen no credible evidence that typical (non-pandemic) influenza has an R0 greater than that of SARS-CoV-2. If you have a citation handy to the contrary, I'd be interested in seeing it. E
340.
by Pyramus 5y ago
I'd like to highlight this previous discussion on influenza: On the epidemiology of influenza (2008) [1] In this paper, in 2008, researchers observe and conjecture a number of things that we now know also apply to SARS-Cov-2: * The lon
341.
by Pyramus 5y ago
I thought exactly the same. I recently had a lengthy discussion about viral interference here on HN only to learn that the person didn't want to see evidence that the mitigation measures (i.e. associated human behaviour change!) are ef
342.
by Pyramus 5y ago
If there only was this vast field of computer scientists, mathematicians, physicists, biologists and disease experts that do nothing else but model the spread of infectious diseases. Not surprisingly it turns out that travel networks play a
343.
by Pyramus 5y ago
For the sake of argument just imagine it was a bio-warfare attack on the US (it isn't) and compare casualties to, say, Pearl Harbor, or 9/11. Before the pandemic, would you have expected US society to sacrifice half a million Amer
344.
by Pyramus 5y ago
I've done and seen quite some 'spin' on things as an entrepreneur, but this complete lack of humbleness takes the cake for me.
345.
by Pyramus 5y ago
Why would there be disagreement about what is considered a long time? You are arguing that longer half life = bad, shorter half life = less bad, which misses the point. An effect with a shorter half-life could be a lot worse/more dange
346.
by Pyramus 5y ago
Technically logistic growth is locally exponential until it isn't.
347.
by Pyramus 5y ago
Your comment may sound unrelated - but it's exactly at the heart of the problem. Both climate change and viral growth increase exponentially. Not only do we release more CO2 into the atmosphere every year, but also the growth rate acce
348.
by Pyramus 5y ago
I'm not sure I understand, are you saying we should not worry about immediate effects that only affect 1 or 2 generations? I don't see why thinking about negative effects over different timespans should be exclusive - climate chan
349.
by Pyramus 5y ago
In most regions of southern Germany, many varieties of mushrooms as well as game (in particular wild boar) are still contaminated with >1k Bq/kg caesium 137 [1]. Even after 35 years (more than a half life) and Chernobyl being some 1
350.
by Pyramus 5y ago
> something that is often not addressed I don't know a single person that likes lockdowns, say, yet the majority of people I know support lockdowns. We are doing the whole spiel, light lockdown - hard lockdown - light lockdown, for
351.
by Pyramus 5y ago
Thank you, appreciated.
352.
by Pyramus 5y ago
From the researchers: > In the past several years, we devote most of our time to improving the Linux kernel, and we have found and fixed more than one thousand kernel bugs; the extensive bug finding and fixing experience also allowed us
353.
by Pyramus 5y ago
> How do you explain the similar suppression in Sweden, Florida, Haiti, etc.? I already stated the explanation: lockdowns/measures are only a proxy for human behaviour. Measures don't stop the spread per se, humans do. E.g. in
354.
by Pyramus 5y ago
Just to clarify that both the fat-tailed distribution of R (most people don't infect anybody) and the low secondary attack rate (low infection in house holds) are also shared by Covid, and were one of the surprises early on.
355.
by Pyramus 5y ago
My feeling from speaking to doctors (including an ENT specialist) is that while in our perception Covid eclipses everything else, for them it's just another infection on top of everything else. So I would be very surprised (and see no
356.
by Pyramus 5y ago
Let me give you the straight-forward answer from an epidemiological point of view (not an expert). Assume you have two pathogens A and B that are transmissible. A with a reproductive number of 3 and B with an R of 1.5. Now the pool of susce
357.
by Pyramus 5y ago
As a non-expert I found it very interesting to see these parallels between influenza (even though partly conjectured) and SARS-Cov-2: The surprisingly low secondary attack rate of 20-30% and the fat-tailed distribution of R (this correlate
358.
by Pyramus 5y ago
Not disagreeing with your conclusion, but wasn't one of the takeaways of the article that there are no "eras"? "Eras" are arbitrary delineations when in fact change is incremental. Doesn't part 2) of the essay
359.
by Pyramus 5y ago
Here is a good estimation based on seroprevalence data from different countries [1] > Taking France as a reference population, the ensemble model estimates a population IFR of 0.79% (95% credible interval, 0.68–0.92%). Crucially, IFR cor
360.
by Pyramus 5y ago
Just want to add that this is not a new theory and has been circulating in medical circles for roughly a month [1]. There is also the hope that when it happens it can be diagnosed and treated. [1] https://twitter.com/LJohnsd

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