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You are dodging parent's point: > I have seen no credible evidence that typical (non-pandemic) influenza has an R0 greater than that of SARS-CoV-2. If you have

You are dodging parent's point: > I have seen no credible evidence that typical (non-pandemic) influenza has an R0 greater than that of SARS-CoV-2. If you have a citation handy to the contrary, I'd be interested in seeing it. Even if the difference in R of influenza and SARS-Cov-2 was only 0.1 (and there is no evidence suggesting the average difference is that small) and assuming both pathogens spread in a similar fashion [1], then over time SARS-Cov-2 will fluctuate around the meta-stable point of 1.0 and as a result influenza will decrease exponentially. [1] https://virologyj.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1743-422X-5-29 https://virologyj.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1743-42...

timr 5y ago
I am not dodging it. As the parent noted in their own post, the best mean estimates we have for SARS-CoV2 are a fraction of a unit away from the best mean estimates we have for influenza or rhinovirus. Trying to use this tiny relative difference in fuzzy estimates of empirical parameters to make a complex causal arguments about...well, anything...is folly.
- Pyramus 5y ago
  Sorry to be harsh here, but that's exactly what I meant by dodging: Parent asked for evidence that the R0 of influenza is higher on average than the R0 of SARS-Cov-2. If there are no studies to show, refer to an opinion of an epidemiologist or any other expert in the spread of infectious diseases. You seem to argue against a vast field of computer scientists, mathematicians, physicists, biologists, medical experts that do nothing else but study the spread of infectious diseases.
  - timr 5y ago
    > Sorry to be harsh here, but that's exactly what I meant by dodging: Parent asked for evidence that the R0 of influenza is higher on average than the R0 of SARS-Cov-2. Burden is on the parent to prove their claim, not for me to disprove claims advanced without evidence. All current estimates for R0 have wide, overlapping confidence intervals that make it impossible to differentiate them from other viruses. The best anyone can say is that Covid and influenza have similar mean R0 estimates. > If there are no studies to show, refer to an opinion of an epidemiologist or any other expert in the spread of infectious diseases. I cited just such a paper. Please refer to it.
    - joshuamorton 5y ago
      > Burden is on the parent to prove their claim, not for me to disprove claims advanced without evidence. Multiple people have cited many papers that all generally agree with the trend that influenza has a lower r0. You've discounted those by making what are ultimately statistically unsound claims. > I cited just such a paper. Please refer to it The paper you cited supports the other person's contention: that r0 of influenza is lower than that of covid.
      - Majromax 5y ago
        > The paper you cited supports the other person's contention: that r0 of influenza is lower than that of covid. As "the other person[1]," I'd like to point out for the sake of accuracy that the paper you mention here does not in fact study covid. While published in February 2020, the "SARS-CoV" it talks about was SARS 1, not the virus behind the current pandemic. I've taken my prior for covid's R0 from sources such as the CDC (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scena...), which seem to report a best guess of about 2.5 with some room for variation. [1] -- Who is also leaving the argument. We've both made our points well enough for others to form their opinion, and I don't think there's much unexplored territory.

timr 5y ago

I am not dodging it. As the parent noted in their own post, the best mean estimates we have for SARS-CoV2 are a fraction of a unit away from the best mean estimates we have for influenza or rhinovirus. Trying to use this tiny relative difference in fuzzy estimates of empirical parameters to make a complex causal arguments about...well, anything...is folly.

Pyramus 5y ago
Sorry to be harsh here, but that's exactly what I meant by dodging: Parent asked for evidence that the R0 of influenza is higher on average than the R0 of SARS-Cov-2. If there are no studies to show, refer to an opinion of an epidemiologist or any other expert in the spread of infectious diseases. You seem to argue against a vast field of computer scientists, mathematicians, physicists, biologists, medical experts that do nothing else but study the spread of infectious diseases.
- timr 5y ago
  > Sorry to be harsh here, but that's exactly what I meant by dodging: Parent asked for evidence that the R0 of influenza is higher on average than the R0 of SARS-Cov-2. Burden is on the parent to prove their claim, not for me to disprove claims advanced without evidence. All current estimates for R0 have wide, overlapping confidence intervals that make it impossible to differentiate them from other viruses. The best anyone can say is that Covid and influenza have similar mean R0 estimates. > If there are no studies to show, refer to an opinion of an epidemiologist or any other expert in the spread of infectious diseases. I cited just such a paper. Please refer to it.
  - joshuamorton 5y ago
    > Burden is on the parent to prove their claim, not for me to disprove claims advanced without evidence. Multiple people have cited many papers that all generally agree with the trend that influenza has a lower r0. You've discounted those by making what are ultimately statistically unsound claims. > I cited just such a paper. Please refer to it The paper you cited supports the other person's contention: that r0 of influenza is lower than that of covid.
    - Majromax 5y ago
      > The paper you cited supports the other person's contention: that r0 of influenza is lower than that of covid. As "the other person[1]," I'd like to point out for the sake of accuracy that the paper you mention here does not in fact study covid. While published in February 2020, the "SARS-CoV" it talks about was SARS 1, not the virus behind the current pandemic. I've taken my prior for covid's R0 from sources such as the CDC (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scena...), which seem to report a best guess of about 2.5 with some room for variation. [1] -- Who is also leaving the argument. We've both made our points well enough for others to form their opinion, and I don't think there's much unexplored territory.