Moodles

33 ms·

271.
by Moodles 6y ago
It seems very unlikely since there's 200 years of data to show that was the biggest crash ever. So a crash twice that size is very unlikely. You could do the math to calculate the exact probability given the sample size of stock market
272.
by Moodles 6y ago
Yeah, I mean there's also some practicalities involved like having cash to withdraw from an ATM or paying rent, but yeah pretty much I'm fully invested.
273.
by Moodles 6y ago
I mean honestly, using a credit card for a month before interest hits is usually fine too? My credit limit is like 50k or something ridiculous across all my cards. Not to mention when all in on stocks you can sell for better long-term capit
274.
by Moodles 6y ago
Yeah as I say, it's fine to do whatever you want with your money to provide emotional comfort. I'm merely saying it's a psychological bias you may want to be aware of. I mean, you chose a 10% figure. Why 10%? Why not 20% or 5
275.
by Moodles 6y ago
I know. I get the exact same push back every time I mention this. I don't know why? I'm literally saying, on average, over the long-term, it's mathematically better to ditch the EF. This is a mathematical statement, but alway
276.
by Moodles 6y ago
You've just given a cherry picked example to show that yes, withdrawing during market downturns is bad. I don't disagree with this? I'm merely saying that, on average, over the long-term, it makes more mathematical sense to d
277.
by Moodles 6y ago
Ok but now we're just personally disagreeing on what x is, which as I said in my first post, is fine. But just be aware of the bias.
278.
by Moodles 6y ago
You won't necessarily have to, but yes, no risk no reward. Doing this is what people who have retired have to do whenever there is a market crash. Really this shouldn't be that controversial. It's super simple: Which does bet
279.
by Moodles 6y ago
Because there are actually two goals, not one: 1. To have enough money to survive an emergency no matter what. 2. To maximize long-term net worth on average. I was only talking about 1. You are talking about 2. But, to address your point: y
280.
by Moodles 6y ago
Yeah it’s hard. There is about 200 years of stock market data so I would look at the biggest crashes to get a sense of what the biggest of them all could be. I guess that’s the German tank problem. It seems very unlikely we’ll get a crash r
281.
by Moodles 6y ago
Yeah, it’s essentially just estimating the probability of you getting an emergency which coincides with a total market collapse so horrific it reduces your semi-liquid net worth to less than your emergency. I’m at a point where I’m ok with
282.
by Moodles 6y ago
I actually have a somewhat controversial opinion (that shouldn’t be controversial because it’s all math, but it still is regardless) that, after you save 5-6x your emergency fund, you don’t need an emergency fund at all and you’re better of
283.
by Moodles 6y ago
Yeah, this is similar to how people ended up inventing HMAC I think.
284.
by Moodles 6y ago
You are right
285.
by Moodles 6y ago
How would hashing twice help with a collision? Surely if your hash function is A(C()) then if you find a collision in C() then that is also a collision in A(C())? Also, just saying “we should use 100 year crypto” is about as useful as sayin
286.
Internet speed record shattered at 178 terabits per second(newatlas.com)
1 points by Moodles 6y ago|0 comments
287.
Reddit Bans ‘The_Donald’ Subreddit(nytimes.com)
30 points by Moodles 6y ago|0 comments
288.
by Moodles 6y ago
If you just want to know what businesses you tend to spend money on, many credit cards in the US do this. E.g. Chase has pie charts showing dining vs travel vs utilities, etc. If you want more fine grained data, you can download statements
289.
by Moodles 6y ago
Church.
290.
by Moodles 6y ago
Real-life political conversations are difficult enough ;-)
291.
by Moodles 6y ago
The point is: were they consistent on both sides?
292.
by Moodles 6y ago
It becoming somewhat of an echo chamber might be an unfortunate natural phenomenon: if there’s even a slight lean to one political view, people with contrasting views will shy away from the abuse, leaving only people with the same view, whi
293.
by Moodles 6y ago
Fair enough, good points
294.
by Moodles 6y ago
The question was: do we have any reason to believe it is more secure than weChat? I say yes.
295.
by Moodles 6y ago
The question was: do we have any reason to believe it's more secure than weChat? I say yes but those are all valid points.
296.
by Moodles 6y ago
WhatsApp is end-to-end encrypted so the service providers themselves can't read the message content, yes, definitely. Although, technically the security guarantees are nil unless you verify safety numbers which I can guarantee almost n
297.
Hubble telescope delivers stunning 30th birthday picture(bbc.com)
2 points by Moodles 6y ago|0 comments
298.
Open source neural network chess engine Leela defeats Stockfish in TCEC 17(chess24.com)
4 points by Moodles 7y ago|1 comments
299.
Biggest cosmic mystery “step closer” to solution(bbc.com)
1 points by Moodles 7y ago|0 comments
300.
by Moodles 7y ago
Right, I'm just saying it's not clear to me where the 10 million figure came from? And it seems very high for a government salary. Obviously if it's justified to work then I'm for it.

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