LeonB

43 ms·

481.
by LeonB 5y ago
Disproven ideas are a subset of the unproven ideas. Trying to distinguish whether or not a specific idea from astrology is or is not “disproven” means you waste time arguing about topics many of which are too vague to be falsifiable. So I c
482.
by LeonB 5y ago
It’s worth making a distinction between new and unproven ideas versus old and unproven ideas.
483.
by LeonB 5y ago
Without knowing what sort of influence it has — it’s difficult to construct a general method, though, please check my idea and see if this achieves the purpose. First you find a gambler, any gambler and ask them to show you the lowest denom
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by LeonB 5y ago
It is normalised. “For each model, the share of drivers with a prior DUI violation was compared against the total population of motorists that owned that model. The 10 models with the highest proportion of drivers with a DUI were then selec
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by LeonB 5y ago
What percent of the general public would be interested in ransacking corporations? and by this we mean taking money specifically, not just damaging their reputations, nor necessarily locking them up for their crimes. Generally the law maker
486.
by LeonB 5y ago
Wait, what? Is there a typo or a missing word there? Both of those happen quite a lot. Bribery, political donations, Lobbying (in its worst forms), campaigning (in its worst forms), and pork barrelling all happen over and over. There are al
487.
by LeonB 5y ago
I don’t know if you’ve spotted this - but money serves a couple of other purposes too. Some people use money to destroy or buy out their competitors. Some people use money to bribe or corrupt politicians and by extension to corrupt the enti
488.
by LeonB 5y ago
Regarding the question: “If you are lost in a city would you rather have the wrong map or no map at all?” I’d talk to a local, because they have knowledge on the topic. They’re a bit like the experts who have spent years in the field here,
489.
by LeonB 5y ago
I’m pretty sure we’re in agreement in the insurance policy part. If I buy a policy to cover my risk of death for the next X years, the insurance company uses the ensemble probability of the group to price that policy (and believes that the
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by LeonB 5y ago
Ok I was waiting for someone to say this. Taleb’s ideas on this would be very interesting. But is a nuclear war a black swan? Think about it. (Hint: have we ever observed a swan of this color before? Have we ever observed countries engaged
491.
by LeonB 5y ago
Ok. I think the question that we want to ask from the model is more like: “What is (one minus (What is the chance we have had 0 nuclear wars by year “now plus 70”?)” So if there is a nuclear war in year n+3 (for example) it’s effect on year
492.
by LeonB 5y ago
Thanks randomjoe2. I do want to be very clear that it’s not a concept I’ve created, and also I have probably mis-stated parts of it - it’s something that I’ve heard about many many times from working for years in the oil and gas industry.
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by LeonB 5y ago
Thank you, yes. As my buddy Jeeves would say “rem acu tetigisti”
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by LeonB 5y ago
The original article does this straw man trick of pretending that the models act like every day is independent. That’s not how it works at all. They’re not modelling the chance of a spontaneous war erupting without cause on day X. Motivated
495.
by LeonB 5y ago
That’s not how the modelling works. That’s a mischaracterisation, a straw man argument.
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by LeonB 5y ago
The insurance industry does a pretty good job of “what is the probability that you will die in the next billable period” - but they would never reduce the bet to “what is the probability that you will die today ?” You say it’s “essential
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by LeonB 5y ago
No, that’s not quite right. Measuring “did we have a nuclear war?” is not the input you’d ever want to use there, it’s only one binary digit of information. Instead take info like “did we have events/incidents with a high potential of
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by LeonB 5y ago
In safety we try to prevent rare events (such as death) and these are rare enough that “past deaths” are not a useful way to predict the likelihood of a death. A crucial metric that occurs more more often and does help predict deaths is “HP
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by LeonB 5y ago
In my company we see a senior as someone who can help increase the leverage of juniors. Another definition I’ve seen is “a senior developer is a developer who can turns other developers into senior developers” Whereas someone who can autono
500.
by LeonB 5y ago
Over the short term or over the longer term? In one day - not at all. Over the longer term? If it makes shopify unable to function and shopify collapses, or if shopify loses many of its shops (due to worse terms) - then you get less choice
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by LeonB 5y ago
I like this. You give actionable advice, it’s not terribly expensive, even if doesn’t work it’s not harmful, and you’re modest enough that right off the bat you disclaim it as anecdotal. Thank you!
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by LeonB 5y ago
> this is the problem that makes me hate DRM: paying customers get a worse product Substitute the word “piracy” in place of DRM, and you’re closer to the cause. (Though I’d definitely concede that a lot of heavy-handed DRM and cloud-only
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by LeonB 5y ago
There’s a childrens show called “Horrible Histories” that tried to make history “fun” for kids. They continually indicate that people in the past were very stupid and brutal. Horrible history show.
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by LeonB 5y ago
Perfectly put. Without the reductionism the whole article falls apart.
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by LeonB 5y ago
This caused a big splash at the time. Here’s some links on ‘what happened next’ (though I’d love to know what else has happened since!) - “Microsoft finally gives AppGet developer the credit he deserves” ( https://www.theverge.com
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by LeonB 5y ago
Ok I think we’re agreement on some fundamentals here about market manipulation and monopolies etc. Regarding your idea of a scheme to sneak up on and out-fox the market leader… by simply enacting a secret conspiracy amongst a quorum of supp
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by LeonB 5y ago
> Audible's network effects can only be dislodged by people not listing their books on Audible at all; so this shouldn't have much of an effect. This isn’t quite right and misses most of what’s going on. Since a book that’s exc
508.
by LeonB 5y ago
if it was easy as you say… it would take a massive investment - and that’s a demonstration of a moat right there. But it wouldn’t be that easy - because Amazon can afford to give better deals to the top 1% of popular authors and thus the
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by LeonB 5y ago
The moat is massive. Their existing market power means that by not being on audible you’re walking away from most of your potential readers. That bit doesnt seem too bad… But then - they offer you a very low percentage if you sell your book
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by LeonB 5y ago
It’s not normal for me, at any rate. There are sometimes quite wide blocklists - I know I was at some point on a blocklist composed of anyone who had ever followed a particular person.

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