Eliezer

12 ms·

91.
by Eliezer 6y ago
Hanlon's Electric Shaver: Never attribute to conspiracy what can be attributed to locally bad incentives.
92.
by Eliezer 6y ago
Found the Krynnian gnome
93.
by Eliezer 6y ago
Doesn't look truish based on this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Younger_Dryas_impact_hypothesi... but I retain some small probability that the jury is still out.
94.
by Eliezer 6y ago
An Atom plugin that actually worked after at most 3 days of effort trying to get it to work would have been nice.
95.
by Eliezer 6y ago
Sacrificed months of productivity to fast off 70 pounds in hope it would fix sleep apnea. It didn't.
96.
by Eliezer 6y ago
Here's an extensive reply to Chollet's essay, also by the author of "There's No Fire Alarm": https://intelligence.org/2017/12/06/chollet/ > ...some systems function very well
97.
by Eliezer 6y ago
I can't see the article because paywall, so out of grim curiosity: Do the journalists (at the so-called "Wall Street Journal") get through the whole article without mentioning once that "Stocks react to changed foreca
98.
by Eliezer 6y ago
Usually, destroying some of the supply, but holding the flow of money fixed, means that the remaining items will be bid up. If instead prices are falling, it means that the secondary financial effects of the real shock are exceeding the im
99.
by Eliezer 6y ago
Fiscal policy creates debt that needs to be repaid. Ordinary monetary policy involves swapping new currency for very stable assets like Treasury bonds that can be sold back later to destroy the currency. As much aggregate demand as possib
100.
by Eliezer 6y ago
And it's still not even remotely enough. 5-year inflation expectations running at 0.67%, CPI falling. The shock to aggregate demand is being allowed to exceed the supply shock. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/
101.
by Eliezer 6y ago
I care about absolutely none of this except weight, which they're not announcing. What a mockery of a successor to the SE name. I guess I'll hold on to my current SE until that's absolutely untenable and then abandon the iO
102.
by Eliezer 7y ago
I unironically salute Microsoft for cleaning up the mess they created. Many large actors don't. There was one right thing to do at this point and they did it.
103.
by Eliezer 7y ago
"So You Want To Be A Wizard". I don't know if it's too late to read it as an adult, but make sure any kid you know has a chance to read it early. In life's name, and for life's sake.
104.
by Eliezer 7y ago
Reading that as a kid definitely helped give me my image of what a master of the Art should be able to do.
105.
by Eliezer 7y ago
Well said. There can be conflicting reports but never conflicting realities. That said, sometimes our apparent data is being filtered by different factors, or even altered, across different reports.
106.
by Eliezer 7y ago
For this application I think you really want one of those maps that equalizes area and population!
107.
by Eliezer 7y ago
Yes, and I would vastly rather have to do that than configure anything from Haskell.
108.
by Eliezer 7y ago
There’s a standard solution for this problem, namely numeric probabilities and prediction markets. If an internal prediction market had given an 80% chance of this happening, that’s meaningful in a way that individual ambiguous naysayings a
109.
by Eliezer 7y ago
I've wanted this literally for two decades. Thank you to the creators for finally making it.
110.
by Eliezer 7y ago
"The hardcore fallacy" is such a useful term I had not heard before. Thank you.
111.
by Eliezer 7y ago
It's spoken tongue-in-cheek, but in fact I don't know of any other intros including all of my own other efforts that I would make that claim about. Writing Bayes intros that actually work and introduce the most critical concepts
112.
by Eliezer 7y ago
If you have even a small amount of math talent, you should be able to grasp the key ideas in Bayes's Rule that quickly iff you read https://arbital.com/p/bayes_rule_guide .
113.
by Eliezer 7y ago
TREE(Graham's Number) is just comically inefficient Googology. It makes me wince just to look at. Graham's Number isn't even on the same plane of existence as TREE. You'd just use TREE(TREE(3)) if you wanted to move u
114.
by Eliezer 7y ago
I hear rumors that there are exactly as many units of oil sold as units of oil bought, and the same holds true for gold. I honestly have no idea what you could mean by saying that there's a glut of one and a dearth of the other.
115.
by Eliezer 7y ago
Very, very particular plutocrats. I'm reasonably sure they're not representative... but still, they have money, and didn't seem to think it could be used to purchase university-agenda.
116.
by Eliezer 7y ago
The plutocrats I have met tend to be alarmed about the decline of classical liberalism in universities; they don't sound like they think they could easily purchase agenda-setting power through simple donations.
117.
by Eliezer 7y ago
We must meet very different plutocrats, that's all I can say.
118.
by Eliezer 7y ago
It's a bad sign if all the creative writers with external viability think the MLA obviously has no expertise on the underlying structure of books. I can imagine an art of critiquing proofs, but I'd expect it to be headed up by pr
119.
by Eliezer 7y ago
The books I've read on the professional craft of writing (written by successful authors) have emphasized that you can't expect to learn anything from your English professor - and many of those books were from decades before the co
120.
by Eliezer 7y ago
Remember when it was becoming increasingly difficult to tell the difference between real headlines and Onion headlines? Well, now it's becoming harder to tell the difference between reality and SCP Foundation logs.

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