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Every once in a while, I'm reminded of what a tenuous position the United States economy and its businesses are in, in terms of the world market. The US is in r

Every once in a while, I'm reminded of what a tenuous position the United States economy and its businesses are in, in terms of the world market. The US is in relative decline in influence, while China is rising in influence and wealth. American exceptionalism is going to become less and less viable as a governing philosophy in the coming years. This is one of those instances where I'm reminded. Also, I need to learn start learning Mandarin, like today. The opportunities missed in the tech industry by not knowing it are going to be huge in the coming years. I set for myself a goal of learning one new language a year this year, starting with Spanish (and I'm doing pretty good on that goal). But, I'm tempted to try to learn both simultaneously. Just not sure where I'll find the time. Spanish study already gets a lot of my leisure time. Maybe I need to do less facebook, reddit, and HN.

buss 12y ago
Don't get discouraged if you can't learn Mandarin in one year. Unless you're taking daily classes and living in a Chinese speaking country, you are likely to take about five years to achieve a passable conversational ability, let alone be able to read or write effectively. If you have some time and are serious about it, I highly recommend NTNU in Taipei. I spent this past summer in an intensive course there and I progressed a ton. It's also not too expensive. I've been diligently learning Mandarin for the past year, and I can maybe converse with a first or second grader.
- SwellJoe 12y ago
  Yeah, I had kinda put languages that are very different from English onto a back-burner, where I'd sort of consider it a thing to tackle once I had a system in place (some sort of mental model, proven practice tactics, etc.) for learning the easier languages, like Spanish, French, and German. Slavic languages like Russian and Polish are high on my list of languages to learn, as places that speak them are high on my list of places to visit, but also seem very challenging. Mandarin, Korean, and Japanese take that to a whole new level of difficulty. Thanks for the tips. I may make it a tiny part of my daily language practice (I spend about 30-60 minutes a day on Spanish right now, and find that consistency is the most important thing), and maybe in a year or two "starting" Mandarin seriously will seem like starting Spanish or French to me now.
  - mahyarm 12y ago
    Even if the 'empire' falls, there are still very profitable pockets that will outlive your lifespan. Look at the UK for example. London is still a major finance center. What is the total GDP of the 6 English native countries is another thing to keep in mind vs. the total GDP of the Slavic countries or the Chinese countries. Don't learn a language until you actually have a requirement to actually use it professionally or personally. Otherwise your time is better spent on other things, like regular exercise, healthy eating and increasing your skill in your profession or working on starting your own business.
    - SwellJoe 12y ago
      I tend to think language learning is one of those things that are intrinsically valuable. And, I'm embarrassed to have made it to middle age without fluency in anything other than English. From a pragmatic perspective it might not 've directly profitable...but it makes me happy.
adventured 12y ago
The United States is rising in fact. Over the last seven years, during which Europe's GDP has been stuck at or below 2007 levels, the US has added $3.5 or so trillion to its GDP, and is presently adding ~$550 billion per year to its GDP. Its unemployment rate continues to fall, in very real terms (not just on the U3). Wages are rising nicely, finally. The US is now fully capable of supplying 100% of its own energy needs, in fact the US has one million barrels of oil per day too much, the US is now drowning in too much oil supply. The US also will retain the global reserve currency for decades to come, making it possible to easily finance its debts. The US has a healthy demographic base, unlike much of Europe, China and Japan. At a time when many other nation's households are accumulating tons of debt, the US has returned its household debt to income ratio back to about 100%, or close to where it was 10 and 15 years ago. Contrast that to, say, Denmark (260%), Sweden (150%), the Netherlands (250%+), Norway (180%), or Canada: http://i.imgur.com/jujosgO.png http://i.imgur.com/jujosgO.png Since 2008, China has become the world's most indebted nation, taking on at least $30 to $35 trillion in new debt (some analysts put the number at closer to $45 trillion). In the next five or six years, China will add another $25 to $30 trillion in debt. Their sovereign wealth fund pales in size to the extreme debt they've accumulated, among both consumers, corporations and their shadow economy. They're accelerating into a disaster of epic proportions, all in the name of faking growth (real growth is zero at this point, if they're lucky); their growth boom came to a crashing stop during the great recession, so they shifted to accumulating vast debt to keep it going, with ever lessening returns on that debt. China is replicating the mistakes Japan made when their growth engine ceased, but doing so over an extremely compressed time-line. Simultaneously China has upwards of 600 million unemployed people that are presently pretending to be farmers, held in place by intentionally backwards government farming policies because there are no jobs for those people. China also has no social safety net of meaningful scope, at a time when they're already in the late desperate stages of debt accumulation. China has a demographics disaster that is already underway. The repeated line that they will get old before they get rich, is indeed the case. Simultaneously we're entering the era of robotics, which will wipe out tens of millions of low quality manual labor jobs in China. China's real estate bubble has already popped and is deflating. Bottom line, the US is in vastly better shape than China.
- ignoramous 12y ago
therealdrag0 12y ago
The future of US was debated recently on Intelligence Squared [0]. Excellent podcast to subscribe to. But you can also watch or listen to debate singles on the website. [0] http://intelligencesquaredus.org/debates/past-debates/item/1251-declinists-be-damned-bet-on-america http://intelligencesquaredus.org/debates/past-debates/item/1...
bliti 12y ago
There are some very easy introductory tutorials on YouTube to learn chinese. Nothing too amazing but enough to get you moving towards speaking the basic language.
seanmcdirmid 12y ago
So many people know both English and Mandarin already. If you know both English and Mandarin, there isn't a real advantage there. Disclosure: partial Mandarin speaker living and working in China for 7+ years; my value add is not Mandarin.
- eru 12y ago
  I think SwellJoe's thought might be that knowing Mandarin doesn't so much add value, but that it's a hygenie factor, just like literacy. Literacy is the norm, and people without are seriously disadvantaged.
  - seanmcdirmid 12y ago
    Definitely, but it's not a hiring point when the skill isn't in short supply (and it is way easier to hire someone fluent in mandarin than English).
    - eru 12y ago
      Though, white guy with English and Mandarin might be a selling point.
      - seanmcdirmid 12y ago
        大山 isn't that novel or popular anymore.
        SwellJoe 12y ago
        And, yet, 大山 can read the websites of manufacturers, their specifications and documentation, can interact directly with the people involved in the design with lower language barriers, etc. I've been researching contracting a manufacturing partner in China for a variety of products I'd like to see but don't exist (or do exist, but at a price point that is absurd, given cost of manufacture); nothing all that complicated, really, but I still find I'd like to be able to dig deeper into the manufacturers reputation and I'd like to be able to interact with them in a way that insures we're actually talking about the same things, and that's challenging for an English speaker. Realistically speaking, I probably just need to find a business partner who is fluent, maybe someone in China near the relevant manufacturing region. It'll take years to be fluent..Though I recognized 大, as I've been doing Chinese words in Memrise.
WA 12y ago
Also, I need to learn start learning Mandarin, like today. The opportunities missed in the tech industry by not knowing it are going to be huge in the coming years. I talked to some Angel investor recently and he said that the language itself doesn't really matter for doing business in China – or at least, it is somewhere at the bottom of the priority list. If you want to do business in China, it is much more important to have the right connections. Without locals, you cannot do anything. Better yet, have locals with connections to the government. Otherwise, China is simply not a viable option.

buss 12y ago

Don't get discouraged if you can't learn Mandarin in one year. Unless you're taking daily classes and living in a Chinese speaking country, you are likely to take about five years to achieve a passable conversational ability, let alone be able to read or write effectively. If you have some time and are serious about it, I highly recommend NTNU in Taipei. I spent this past summer in an intensive course there and I progressed a ton. It's also not too expensive. I've been diligently learning Mandarin for the past year, and I can maybe converse with a first or second grader.

SwellJoe 12y ago
Yeah, I had kinda put languages that are very different from English onto a back-burner, where I'd sort of consider it a thing to tackle once I had a system in place (some sort of mental model, proven practice tactics, etc.) for learning the easier languages, like Spanish, French, and German. Slavic languages like Russian and Polish are high on my list of languages to learn, as places that speak them are high on my list of places to visit, but also seem very challenging. Mandarin, Korean, and Japanese take that to a whole new level of difficulty. Thanks for the tips. I may make it a tiny part of my daily language practice (I spend about 30-60 minutes a day on Spanish right now, and find that consistency is the most important thing), and maybe in a year or two "starting" Mandarin seriously will seem like starting Spanish or French to me now.
- mahyarm 12y ago
  Even if the 'empire' falls, there are still very profitable pockets that will outlive your lifespan. Look at the UK for example. London is still a major finance center. What is the total GDP of the 6 English native countries is another thing to keep in mind vs. the total GDP of the Slavic countries or the Chinese countries. Don't learn a language until you actually have a requirement to actually use it professionally or personally. Otherwise your time is better spent on other things, like regular exercise, healthy eating and increasing your skill in your profession or working on starting your own business.
  - SwellJoe 12y ago
    I tend to think language learning is one of those things that are intrinsically valuable. And, I'm embarrassed to have made it to middle age without fluency in anything other than English. From a pragmatic perspective it might not 've directly profitable...but it makes me happy.

adventured 12y ago

The United States is rising in fact. Over the last seven years, during which Europe's GDP has been stuck at or below 2007 levels, the US has added $3.5 or so trillion to its GDP, and is presently adding ~$550 billion per year to its GDP. Its unemployment rate continues to fall, in very real terms (not just on the U3). Wages are rising nicely, finally. The US is now fully capable of supplying 100% of its own energy needs, in fact the US has one million barrels of oil per day too much, the US is now drowning in too much oil supply. The US also will retain the global reserve currency for decades to come, making it possible to easily finance its debts. The US has a healthy demographic base, unlike much of Europe, China and Japan. At a time when many other nation's households are accumulating tons of debt, the US has returned its household debt to income ratio back to about 100%, or close to where it was 10 and 15 years ago. Contrast that to, say, Denmark (260%), Sweden (150%), the Netherlands (250%+), Norway (180%), or Canada: http://i.imgur.com/jujosgO.png http://i.imgur.com/jujosgO.png Since 2008, China has become the world's most indebted nation, taking on at least $30 to $35 trillion in new debt (some analysts put the number at closer to $45 trillion). In the next five or six years, China will add another $25 to $30 trillion in debt. Their sovereign wealth fund pales in size to the extreme debt they've accumulated, among both consumers, corporations and their shadow economy. They're accelerating into a disaster of epic proportions, all in the name of faking growth (real growth is zero at this point, if they're lucky); their growth boom came to a crashing stop during the great recession, so they shifted to accumulating vast debt to keep it going, with ever lessening returns on that debt. China is replicating the mistakes Japan made when their growth engine ceased, but doing so over an extremely compressed time-line. Simultaneously China has upwards of 600 million unemployed people that are presently pretending to be farmers, held in place by intentionally backwards government farming policies because there are no jobs for those people. China also has no social safety net of meaningful scope, at a time when they're already in the late desperate stages of debt accumulation. China has a demographics disaster that is already underway. The repeated line that they will get old before they get rich, is indeed the case. Simultaneously we're entering the era of robotics, which will wipe out tens of millions of low quality manual labor jobs in China. China's real estate bubble has already popped and is deflating. Bottom line, the US is in vastly better shape than China.

ignoramous 12y ago

therealdrag0 12y ago

The future of US was debated recently on Intelligence Squared [0]. Excellent podcast to subscribe to. But you can also watch or listen to debate singles on the website. [0] http://intelligencesquaredus.org/debates/past-debates/item/1251-declinists-be-damned-bet-on-america http://intelligencesquaredus.org/debates/past-debates/item/1...

bliti 12y ago

There are some very easy introductory tutorials on YouTube to learn chinese. Nothing too amazing but enough to get you moving towards speaking the basic language.

seanmcdirmid 12y ago

So many people know both English and Mandarin already. If you know both English and Mandarin, there isn't a real advantage there. Disclosure: partial Mandarin speaker living and working in China for 7+ years; my value add is not Mandarin.

eru 12y ago
I think SwellJoe's thought might be that knowing Mandarin doesn't so much add value, but that it's a hygenie factor, just like literacy. Literacy is the norm, and people without are seriously disadvantaged.
- seanmcdirmid 12y ago
  Definitely, but it's not a hiring point when the skill isn't in short supply (and it is way easier to hire someone fluent in mandarin than English).
  - eru 12y ago
    Though, white guy with English and Mandarin might be a selling point.
    - seanmcdirmid 12y ago
      大山 isn't that novel or popular anymore.
      - SwellJoe 12y ago
        And, yet, 大山 can read the websites of manufacturers, their specifications and documentation, can interact directly with the people involved in the design with lower language barriers, etc. I've been researching contracting a manufacturing partner in China for a variety of products I'd like to see but don't exist (or do exist, but at a price point that is absurd, given cost of manufacture); nothing all that complicated, really, but I still find I'd like to be able to dig deeper into the manufacturers reputation and I'd like to be able to interact with them in a way that insures we're actually talking about the same things, and that's challenging for an English speaker. Realistically speaking, I probably just need to find a business partner who is fluent, maybe someone in China near the relevant manufacturing region. It'll take years to be fluent..Though I recognized 大, as I've been doing Chinese words in Memrise.

WA 12y ago

Also, I need to learn start learning Mandarin, like today. The opportunities missed in the tech industry by not knowing it are going to be huge in the coming years. I talked to some Angel investor recently and he said that the language itself doesn't really matter for doing business in China – or at least, it is somewhere at the bottom of the priority list. If you want to do business in China, it is much more important to have the right connections. Without locals, you cannot do anything. Better yet, have locals with connections to the government. Otherwise, China is simply not a viable option.