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So first about the article: >>The notion of standard deviation has confused hordes of scientists What an assertion! It also proved to be very useful for horde
by bluecalm 13y ago
So first about the article:
>>The notion of standard deviation has confused hordes of scientists
What an assertion! It also proved to be very useful for hordes of scientists... what about some examples of confused scientists ?
>>There is no scientific reason to use it in statistical investigations in the age of the computer
As someone who uses it daily I am eagerly awaiting his argument.
>>Say someone just asked you to measure the "average daily variations" for the temperature of your town (or for the stock price of a company, or the blood pressure of your uncle) over the past five days. The five changes are: (-23, 7, -3, 20, -1). How do you do it?
Ok... if I am to calculate the average I am calculating the average if I need to know standard deviation I calculate standard deviation...
>> It corresponds to "real life" much better than the first—and to reality.
What the flying fuck. What "real life" ? Standard deviation tells you how volatile measurements are not what mean deviation is. Those are both very real life things just not the same thing.
>>It is all due to a historical accident: in 1893, the great Karl Pearson introduced the term "standard deviation" for what had been known as "root mean square error". The confusion started then: people thought it meant mean deviation.
I don't know how one can read it and not think: "is this guy high or just stupid?".
>>. The confusion started then: people thought it meant mean deviation.
I am yet to see anybody who thinks that standard deviation is mean deviation. It's Taleb though. Baseless assertions insulting groups of people are his craft.
>>What is worse, Goldstein and I found that a high number of data scientists (many with PhDs) also get confused in real life.
One example please ?
I can give hundreds when std dev is useful and mean deviation isn't. Anything when you decide what % of yoru bankroll to bet on perceived edge for example.
Ok so he asserted that people should just use mean deviation instead of mean of squares. Guess what though, taking the squares have a purpose: it penalizes big deviations so two situations which have the same mean deviation but one is more stable have different standard deviations. THis information is useful for many things: risk estimation or calculating sample size needed for required confidence (if you need more experiments, how careful should you be with conclusions and predictions etc).
He didn't mention how are we going to achieve those with his proposal. Meanwhile he managed to throw insults towards various groups without giving one single example of misuse he describes.
This is not the first time he writes something this way. His whole recent book is like that. It's anti-intellectual bullshit with many words and zero points. He doesn't give any arguments, he throws a lot of insults, he misues words and makes up redundant terms which he then struggles to define.
The guy is a vile idiot of the worst kind: ignorant and aggressive. Him gaining so much following by spewing nonsense like this article is for sure fascinating but there is no place for him in any serious debate.
- tptacek 13y agoThis comment was great fun to read, and I suspect that I share some of your opinions about Taleb (although mine are decaying with each day that passes since I last finished reading any of his books), but it would have been stronger as an argument if you had left off the part about him being a "vile idiot".
- bluecalm 13y agoI just can't pass it. I gave my best at reading his book. The guy is unable to write one paragraph which doesn't contain some nonsense or serious misuse of established terms. He is insulting whole groups of people and institutions without giving any examples or research. I am pretty sure that if his stuff were posted without his name the conclusion would be obvious: it's just nonsense and very offensive at that. I realize calling people idiots are frown upon here but I am ready to defend it. There isn't one other author which infuriates me with his ignorance and inability to make specific point without throwing condescending remarks. If there is anybody who deserve the term it's him. I mean "we should retire standard deviation because everybody misues it and it's not useful for real life" without any examples ? He just called out thousands of scientist, risk managers and statisticians without giving one single argument. His suggestion to just use mean deviation is laughable and obviously doesn't work for many purposes which he didn't address while being condescending in the process. It's worse than saying: "we should retire Java and just use Python because it has dynamic typing and seemingly developers at even serious companies fail to see this!". Remark of this kind would gain me "idiot" badge pretty quickly. This article is on this level (well, actually lower as remark about Python actually contains an argument) and his book is worse. If that doesn't qualify him as an idiot I don't know what else could.
- a8da6b0c91d 13y agoEric Falkenstein's various Taleb takedowns are fun. http://falkenblog.blogspot.com/2009/03/fama-on-taleb.html http://falkenblog.blogspot.com/2009/03/fama-on-taleb.html http://falkenblog.blogspot.com/2012/11/taleb-mishandles-fragility.html http://falkenblog.blogspot.com/2012/11/taleb-mishandles-frag... http://falkenblog.blogspot.com/2010/12/nassim-taleb-imitates-kanye-west.html http://falkenblog.blogspot.com/2010/12/nassim-taleb-imitates... http://falkenblog.blogspot.com/2009/03/review-of-talebs-black-swan.html http://falkenblog.blogspot.com/2009/03/review-of-talebs-blac...