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2013: A Bad Year for the Tech Industry
- Zigurd 13y agoThe article's author is stretching to be cranky. Does anyone think wearables have been figured out? They might someday disappoint, but the author doesn't understand, or is being deliberately obtuse about why Samsung would ship a bulky, half-baked watch. Similarly, bitcoin seems hardly overhyped. Not since you had to install a third-party TCP stack in Windows in order to get on the Internet have I seen so many people be so motivated to overcome so much complexity to get something they want.
- MartinCron 13y agoNot since you had to install a third-party TCP stack in Windows in order to get on the Internet have I seen so many people be so motivated to overcome so much complexity to get something they want. Not that I personally remember the 19th century, but I still see artifacts of people being very motivated to overcome the complexity of mining for gold in the Yukon.
- Zigurd 13y agoWhat can I say? Cliff Stoll is still making a living as a futurist.
- bdfh42 13y agoOr to put it another way - 2013, a year that opened up myrriad opportunities for disruption. Mobile device penetration reached a point where we can rely upon the platform for application distribution. Wearables continued to look for a compelling app. Former giants continued to make way for new technologies and companies. M&A replaced innovation in big companies (great for the rest of us). Technology leaders continued to be pr$$$s (so whats new?) Social Media - again achieved platform status - ready to be used, abused and replaced. Media (and bitcoin) blah blah NSA and GCHQ screw up the initial cloud business model and (again) open up new opportunities. Pretty good start point for a great 2014 I would say
- Paul_S 13y agoForgive the flippancy but it looks to me you'd see WW III as an opportunity for entrepreneurial people. Step back and have a look yourself.
- taybin 13y agoWouldn't it be? All those rations to hoard and trade...
- samelawrence 13y agoWWII (or any other time of turmoil) was a huge opportunity for some entrepreneurs, and we needed them to restore order and stability after the conflict. Obviously there was some profiteering, but I don't see it as inherently wrong to look at times of trouble as opportunities.
- kristopolous 13y agohttp://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rothschild_family#The_Napoleonic_Wars http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rothschild_family#The_Napoleo... is my favorite example of this. brilliant at every move - like some chess grandmaster of business.
- bowlofpetunias 13y agoSo now we're rewriting post-WWII history to glorify entrepreneurs even further? If anything, most efforts and programs that resulted in the remarkably fast restoration of countries ruined by the war would today be labelled as examples of "socialist" big government.
- bdfh42 13y agoI suppose it is possible that one of the items featured in the post resulted in some personal loss to yourself - commiserations if that was so. I think that most of us are always on the look out for gaps and opportunities to make some headway in this world. Thus the marginal (on a global scale) misfortunes of some ultra large businesses are likely to be seen as a positive from the perspective of a smaller more agile enterprise. I know that my 2014 project is all about running rings around the established players in a major market place. I do not apologise for relishing the prospect.
- michaelochurch 13y agoMy take on this: http://michaelochurch.wordpress.com/2013/12/26/was-2013-a-terrible-year-for-technology/ http://michaelochurch.wordpress.com/2013/12/26/was-2013-a-te...
- Dirlewanger 13y agoI completely get your attacking the superfluity of the Atlantic article. It's expected from outlets like them. It's the end of the year. But you don't exactly give any reasons why this year was special, or whose work right now is going to come to fruition in 2030, or any other concrete reasons as to why 2013 wasn't, on the whole, an embarrassing year.
- michaelochurch 13y ago2013 was an incredibly embarrassing year for the technology industry. And no, I don't think the positive accomplishments of this year were, on the whole, special in comparison to those in other years. At least, we won't know if any were until a long time from now. My point is that it wasn't a lost year. Done right, technology is about hard work, year after year, and getting rich slowly. The fact that a few jackasses made public embarrassments of themselves is mostly irrelevant to the people doing that work. Moreover, the embarrassingness of the Valley's 2013 is a great thing for humanity in the long run, because it might move the technical focus outside of the Valley and the VC-funded world, and back into places that are more hospitable to Real Technology.
- lmm 13y agoIf smartphones are maturing and being commoditized that's a good thing. I no longer upgrade my PC every 18 months; I'd quite like to stop doing that with my phone too.
- swalsh 13y ago2013 is the eye of the storm. Mobile phones stagnated - Mobile phones now have desktop class processors in them. The line between phone, and laptop is becoming simply a matter of form factor. Something big might wiggle through, and 2013 is when the technology got there. Wearables were a letdown - We finally have the technology, we're just looking for the right mix of form and application. There's a lot of potential there, we just haven't found it yet. However the roots have been planted. Former giants let down - They're learning their place. IBM has no business making mobile phones, they cater to guys who need to do a lot of database stuff quickly. Microsoft has no business making consumer products, now that the line between producer and consumer is very clear. They're good at making a platform that enabled business customers to quickly develop apps. Apple is mobile. I have this theory, a company can only do one section of a market well, or everything poorly. Whatever the result, they have finally embraced open source tech like HTML 5, Angular JS, bootstrap etc. Microsoft is no longer holding back the web. With a "sane" platform, we got some more rope to hang ourselves with. Social media became profitable - great, now the platform can pay for itself. The rest is interesting, but not proof of a year of stagnation.
- simonh 13y agoAgree completely, there was incremental movement on the outside, but powerful forces are at work beneath the surface. The iPhone 5s was widely derided as an incremental product, but it forced every other smartphone and mobile processor designer in the industry to throw out their entire technical roadmap for the next few years and start again from scratch. It also introduced the first consumer application of a biometric sensor that actually feels like it's part of our future here today. Google Glass is highly controversial, but setting it's consumer acceptance issues aside, the potential for the technology in a whole host of industrial/business applications is stunning. Ditto for commercial drone technology like that demonstrated by Amazon. I can understand a non-tech journalist looking at all this and not getting excited, but for a tech journalist to completely miss the implications of these developments is just lazy.
- yread 13y agoI was wondering what was the year like on HN. Here are some top posts from this year Aaron Swartz commits suicide (tech.mit.edu) Heroku's Ugly Secret: The story of how the cloud-king turned its back on Rails (rapgenius.com) Breaking down Amazon's mega dropdown (bjk5.com) XKeyscore: NSA program collects 'nearly everything a user does on the internet' (theguardian.com) Google Reader shutting down (googleblog.blogspot.com) I'm learning to code by building 180 websites in 180 days. Today is day 115 (blog.jenniferdewalt.com) A spreadsheet in fewer than 30 lines of JavaScript, no library used (jsfiddle.net) Bomberman massively multiplayer in HTML5 (bombermine.com) Tearable Cloth Simulation in JavaScript (codepen.io) Hello Firefox, this is Chrome calling (blog.chromium.org) SteamOS (store.steampowered.com) Amazon Prime Air (amazon.com) Explain Shell (explainshell.com) Sprite Lamp (spritelamp.com) Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer to retire within 12 months (microsoft.com) Ubuntu Edge (indiegogo.com) FBI raids alleged online drug market Silk Road, arrests owner (reuters.com) Victory Lap for Ask Patents (joelonsoftware.com) So, in a summary: some bad things, some good things. JS is getting more and more powerful, NSA, BTC, lots of SV drama. I apologize to HNSearch for DOSing them with my query
- pjungwir 13y ago> Tearable Cloth Simulation in JavaScript Not just that, but horrible, no good, and very bad, too.
- enko 13y agoHilariously, when I tried to google that exact rapgenius article, 'twas not a direct link to be found. I imagine 2013 has suddenly turned into a "Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Year" for them, too.
- theorique 13y agoDoes anybody really care about smart watches? I've talked to many friends who are generally delighted about their mobile phones, and they have minimal interest in smart watches that cost close to a mobile phone. I suppose a category disruptor like the iPad could emerge, but I'm not holding my breath. I think we're getting device fatigue. (On the other hand, Google Glass and related devices are a bit different, and may have more applications)
- TillE 13y agoI think there's significant potential for a wristband fitness/health device, like a more advanced Fitbit. But yeah, anything like the Pebble is probably a dead end; in five years or so, Glass will have replaced all its functionality and much more for anyone who already wears eyeglasses.
- theorique 13y agoGood point. I agree a purpose-specific device could find a niche. But the smart watch thing seems to be a dead end - too small a screen to compete with a smartphone (which 'everybody' has now), too bulky and 'uncool' to compete with a basic watch (telling the time) or fashion/jewelry watch (pretty accessory). Of course that was what people said about iPads - why would you want that if you have a laptop and smartphone ... so maybe I'm completely wrong.
- aaronem 13y agoI doubt it; wristwatches have origin in the military need for a readily accessible chronometer for coordination among forces in different locations, and I tend to think that their having become popular in civilian life is an accident of history resulting from millions of soldiers having worn their watches home from the two world wars. We're now roughly two and a half to three generations from the latter such war, and wristwatches have been largely reduced to the status of niche fashion accessory; even in my own childhood, a wristwatch was still considered de rigeur and I had several growing up, but now not even anyone in my own generation much bothers with the things, to say nothing of my generation's kids. Absent some repopularizing event, a category for which "Apple and Google would really like to sell a lot of smart watches" fails to qualify, I see no reason to imagine the trend spontaneously reversing itself.
- jokoon 13y agoOne bright side: kickstarter I hope it will make people think twice about what is innovation, and how to market innovation in a healthy fashion. Programmable computers are 95% invention.
- thehme 13y agoOk, just started to read the article, and already I am not agreeing with "Samsung’s update to history’s best-selling Android phone, the Galaxy S series, delivered on the technical specifications but continued the line’s “unpleasant, cheap design.”" The Galaxy S series is to me by far better than the ongoing iPhone look. The only thing keeping me to getting the Galaxy now is a contract.
- thehme 13y agoSo, now I read about the "phablets" and the first thing that came to my mind was the then sleep Palm Pre, which already allowed me to call, take pictures, and use it a tablet, where I could use my stylus to do many tasks I can hardly do on the iPhone. "Phablet" is definitely a bad name, I say we call it like the "Walkie-talkie", a "Walkie-talkie-browsie-typie" device.
- MartinCron 13y agoWalkie-talkie-browsie-typie I'm going to respectfully disagree with you on that name. "Phablet" is bad, but you've gone from bad to worse.
- electrichead 13y agoIn terms of introducing new mind blowing things, I agree that 2013 was not good at all (the new consoles deserve a special mention for completely failing to generated any enthusiasm at all) I also think though, that it was an incredible year for bridging a gap - specifically, the number of people becoming comfortable with using technology in their daily lives, and much more common than 2012. The sheer number of gadgets I see on a daily basis on my commute is unbelievable and very exciting. I think we have finally jumped over a hump where even grandparents have at least one decent device (ipads seem to be the most common). The coming years will only be more exciting because of the legwork done by this year.
- vezzy-fnord 13y agoInnovation was replaced by financial engineering, mergers and acquisitions, and evasion of regulations. Wait, this is new?
- mathattack 13y agoI disagree with all this negativism that is taking over lately. I think that there are several very positive trends for the tech sector: 1 - Big data is coming age. People are becoming more realistic about what it means, Data Science is becoming a profession, and the hype is being replaced by results. 2 - It has gotten even easier to learn how to program. Udacity, Coursera and StackExchange continue to improve. The resources available for the resourceful have multiplied. 3 - The IPO market is back. Facebook's investors no longer feel burned. Twitter's investors and employees are doing great. The better the IPO market, the more money that gets recycled into technology. 4 - We are aware of the privacy beast. Some view this as terrible. Awareness is actually the first path to fixing the problem. 5 - SF may be seeing hostility towards tech firms, but the tech scene is thriving and being welcomed with open arms in NYC, Austin, Boston, and perhaps even Tokyo. 6 - It's been a good year for gay marriage, which is the defining civil liberties battle of the day. 7 - Computer Science is a trendy major. Stanford undergrads flock to it. Harvard's cs50 competes with intro to economics as the most popular major. Every that this occurs, our technological capability as a society increases. Yes, there are a lot of reasons for 2013 to have been crappy, but I'm optimistic about 2014.
- saraid216 13y agoIt's entirely unfair to put #6 on that list.
- yurylifshits 13y agoHere is the logic behind #6 being in the list: Many attractive markets are heavily regulated. Just ask Uber. Think of customs, law enforcement, transportation, education, finance, health. So far, tech industry is doing great in unregulated industries and has a lot of tough barriers in government controlled areas. Any step towards more liberties is a sign that new previously regulated markets can open up for innovation.
- saraid216 13y agoThat's not an argument that it is good for the tech industry. That's an argument that it is good for everyone-everywhere. You may as well claim that the Emancipation Proclamation was good for the timber industry.
- deleted 13y ago[deleted]
- simondedalus 13y agoThis article is preposterous sensationalist stupidity. "Mobile Phones Stagnated" - backed up not by sales figures or technological hurdles, but "things aren't innovative enough," ie "I don't like this batch of smart phones." Bad year for tech... because I don't like profitable, more powerful smart phones. "Wearables Were a Letdown" - more opinions without sales figures, but at least not as contentious ones. "Former Giants Continued Their Inglorious Decline" - a corporate capitalist struggle between large companies is "a bad year for tech" because some of those companies are losing the struggle (while others are winning). Mobile still on the rise (see first reason why the year was bad for tech (???)) with desktop declining, which is here presented as overall negative for tech industry... because...? "M&A Replaced Innovation" - which is somehow code for "corporate giants did normal corporate things." Microsoft bought Nokia instead of "innovating." Think about that. What in the world does the first half of the sentence have to do with the second? The tech industry is failing because Microsoft didn't invent a new smart phone, and they bought Nokia? That is a very compelling... argument. "The Arrogance of Technology’s Ruling Class Increased" - and the explanation is that technology is taking the place of menial labor. Bad year for tech when tech continues to be more productive and accomplishes a wider variety of tasks. Bad year because advances are being made. Re: no jobs, I don't care what your political or economic ideology is, if you think wealth inequality is a direct consequence of technological advancement you're a moron. Maybe such an A -> B is a little simplistic? Maybe not quite up to what should be the standards of serious journalism (or casual thought!)? "Social Media Became Profitable, If Not Compelling" - Unpacked as "neither I nor anyone else likes social media, but the profits are back up." How does that work? "Media Ravenous for Stories Bought Into Techno-Hype" - by far the most ruinously idiotic bullet point. The suggestion that covering bitcoin was "hype" and not legitimate news... the author should be embarrassed. Suggesting that bitcoin is a phenomenon of sensationalism is a child's idea of how economic value works. Yes, and we all buy smart phones because we read tech blogs that sensationalized them. "The NSA Spying Scandal Put a Chill on the Biggest Technological Shifts of Coming Years" - news stories bring surges of interest in cryptography, interest in tech in general, and shape future implementations of large-scale tech. Sounds like a Bad Year for the Tech Industry yes? Printing this trash anywhere outside of "My blog about my feelings" is irresponsible and embarrassing.
- socialnerdia 13y agothere is NO such thing as a "lost year for tech" https://medium.com/p/fe1e46b8c02f https://medium.com/p/fe1e46b8c02f