13 ms·

It's been confirmed that this was actually a fire in the battery pack (one of the 16 cells of the pack). However, the fire did not start spontaneously - it was

by marvin 13y ago

It's been confirmed that this was actually a fire in the battery pack (one of the 16 cells of the pack). However, the fire did not start spontaneously - it was caused by the driver hitting a large piece of metal debris in the road. The fire was also contained to part of the battery pack and did not cause a runaway reaction like in some laptop battery fires. The driver was alerted by the computer system and could stop the vehicle in a controlled manner, and evacuate. There was no explosion, and the fire did not spread to the interior of the vehicle. The fire department was able to put out the fire with a single truck. All in all, I think this is actually a positive mark on the engineering of the Tesla Model S. Statistically, there have been fewer fatalities with Model S than the average for the number of miles driven - this is in line with the car's crash test ratings. This is also the first fire after the 12 crashes which have been recorded. A fire like this was inevitable; gasoline cars also occasionally catch fire when they crash. The energy content of a full gas tank is also a lot higher. However, investors are very fickle when it comes to Li-ion battery pack fires. Even if this is evidence that the Model S is probably safer with regards to fires than a traditional gasoline car, naywayers will jump on it. Not a fun day to be a Tesla shareholder :P

JimmaDaRustla 13y ago
Yes, Li-ion batteries can be like little bombs. Considering the batter was engulfed in a flame and safely contained...I'm pretty surprised and have a more positive view of Tesla now.
- CamperBob2 13y ago
  Indeed. SpaceX isn't public, or I would've bought their stock after seeing how their vehicle handled the aborted launch during their first ISS resupply mission. These guys understand the meaning of "fail safe."
symfoniq 13y ago
Moreover, when this sort of thing happens to a car that uses gasoline, the results can be far more catastrophic. "The freak accident occurred about 10:30 a.m. on Nov. 8, 1994, when the family was traveling to Wisconsin to celebrate birthdays. The van, driven by Scott Willis and carrying his wife and six of their nine children, struck a piece of debris that had fallen off a truck driven by Ricardo Guzman. The debris, a mudflap/taillight assembly, punctured the mini-van's gas tank, and the car burst into flames. Scott and Janet Willis managed to untangle themselves and escape, but the children were trapped and five of the six perished instantly. The oldest in the car, 12-year-old Ben, died the next day." http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2000-05-01/news/0005010161_1_willis-family-rev-duane-scott-willis-accident http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2000-05-01/news/000501016...
- ofthecaribbean 13y ago
  This is possible with a gas car, but the gas tank doesn't occupy the whole bottom of the car and even if it is punctured, it won't ignite unless there is some additional spark or heat source. Given the number of gas cars on the road, anything described as a "freak accident" must have a very low probability. If this is the 13th serious accident of a Tesla, it's unlikely that the probability is very low.
  - samman 13y ago
    >If this is the 13th serious accident of a Tesla, it's unlikely that the probability is very low. I'm not sure you've followed the thread here...I don't think anyone's (accurately) saying that this is the 13th spontaneous battery accident. I'm pretty sure the other 12 are standard traffic accidents, of which this is the first to produce a battery fire. All in all, it seems a rather small sample size to make any kind of determination.
    - tedunangst 13y ago
      Assuming that the normal rate of battery fires after collisions is one per million, the probability of observing such a fire after only 13 collisions is rather low. (Not impossible, just unlikely.) so perhaps the rate is not one per million. Doesn't mean it's one in thirteen, just not one in a million.
      - 286c8cb04bda 13y ago
        If the chance of a catastrophic event happening is one-in-a-million, then it is equally likely to happen on the 13th and on the millionth coin toss. > Assuming that the normal rate of battery fires after collisions is one per million, the probability of observing such a fire after only 13 collisions is rather low. What you're arguing is that the probability of it happening on or before the 13th time is less than it happening on or before the millionth time -- Which is self-evidently true of _any_ probability, and is a much weaker argument. > perhaps the rate is not one per million This is much closer to the argument you should be making. I.e. "Given that a purported one-in-a-million event occurred after only the 13th test, what is the probability that their estimate of one-in-a-million is accurate?" (I don't know the math to answer that question, but I hope somebody that does will come along and chime in.)
IgorPartola 13y ago
12 crashes is not a huge sample size. Also, potholes and other road hazards are so common that if 0.1% of encounters with them causes a fire that ruins the very expensive battery pack, it is an issue. Overall, yes, superior engineering prevented the problem from being worse than it was. However, there is still a problem.
- sally888 13y ago
  IMHO, there is a major problem with Tesla's batteries. Boeing has had issues with its lithium-ion batteries catching on fire. I wouldn't be surprised if more Teslas have the same issues in the future.
  - alexholehouse 13y ago
    > IMHO, there is a major problem with Tesla's batteries. Is this based on any kind of information, or just supposition stemming from the problems Boeing had (where, IIRC, Tesla offered to provide engineering assistance).
    - sally888 13y ago
      Well, the Chevy Volts' lithium ion batteries also have fire issues too. Not to mention overheated laptops with li-ion batteries that have caught on fire.
      - HeyItsJames 13y ago
        We're still waiting on any categorical information from you, other than your baseless fears stemming from problems with wholly different companies using similar technology.
      - smileysteve 13y ago
        News, Every car has batteries that are potential fire/explosion/acid explosions. I've seen a standard 12v lead acid battery evaporating/boiling hydrochloric acid out of its vent holes, I've also seen one smoking about to explode.
pizu 13y ago
in movies cars catch fire and explode all the time. guess, the movie industry will face an inevitable change when 20-50 years into the future everyone drives electric.
- ianstallings 13y ago
  Anytime energy is stored to be released there is a chance of disaster. Usually this manifests itself in fire.
joezydeco 13y ago
I'm kind of fascinated by the idea that the car is telling you to stop and get the hell out before doom happens. Does anyone have an image or video of that kind of notice?
- IanDrake 13y ago
  I used to have a K car that would tell me things like "Your door is ajar" and other random bits of information. Then one day, it said, "Your electrical system is malfunctioning." We all bust out laughing. If was funny until the engine stalled after 4 more miles. Turned out the alternator was dead.
  - shabble 13y ago
    "My fault-detection circuitry may be malfunctioning, but I'm not sure how to tell"
bitops 13y ago
> Not a fun day to be a Tesla shareholder Only if you're fickle and lack conviction. People are talking a lot about "is Tesla at a fair valuation" and I personally believe that it's impossible to know what a fair valuation is until a few more years have elapsed. I could reasonably see Tesla bouncing back to $300/share over the next 18 months or staying at or around $200. The current drops are more likely related to general market unease and opportunism rather than anything endemically wrong with Tesla. Also, with "momentum" stocks I'm sure some people got in looking to make a quick buck and also some people are surely taking advantage of the general shutdown-related cacophony to short the stock so they can buy it at lower prices (I would). Fluctuations like this illustrate why one of the most important qualities an investor can have is patience. If you're trying to get rick quick, you'll be in trouble. But if you invest in solid companies that you understand, you should do well. Provided you do your homework, of course. I'll reiterate Peter Lynch's excellent advice from "One Up on Wall Street" - if the stock drops but the fundamentals still make sense, stick around to see how the story develops.
- foobarqux 13y ago
  You talk about fundamental value and then throw out a $200-300 share price. What valuation methodology could possibly come up with that absurd number?
  - marvin 13y ago
    The correct stock market value of a company is the discounted sum of all its future earnings. This number is impossible to calculate, but investors can estimate it with probabilistic models (a discounted cash flow model, taking into account the probabilities of different scenarios). E.g. a simplification of such a model would be to create some plausible-looking probability histogram for the "fundamental" value of the company in 10 years. Many investors believe there is a significant probability that Tesla will be worth >100 billion in 10-15 years, i.e. one of the world's major automakers (perhaps one of the largest) due to a global shift to electric vehicles and its 5-year head start and patent moat. It's probably worth noting that multiple major analysts have performed such a DCF analysis and arrived at a number in this ballpark. Under these assumptions, a $200-300 share price isn't absurd. I can agree it's speculative and extrapolating a lot. But on the other hand a $40 price as some analysts are calling for, is IMHO more absurd since it ignores some very likely growth prospects. If companies were always valued on "fundamental" value, buying growth stocks would be guaranteed to make you a massive, market-beating return.
JshWright 13y ago
>The fire department was able to put out the fire with a single truck. Goodness I hope so... A modern fire engine can pump a couple thousand gallons of water and foam every minute...
- FireBeyond 13y ago
  A modern fire engine pumps around 1250-2000gpm. However it also only has around 750-1000 gallons of water onboard. So you'd better hope that there's a hydrant nearby. Also, hand lines are only 150-250gpm. A deck gun is pretty useless for a car fire (a - can't be aimed at below 0deg, and b - you'd have approximately 30 seconds of usable time to get any deluge on the car and extinguish it, which is not particularly realistic if it's at all involved).
  - JshWright 13y ago
    You just need to get creative. Assuming you had a hydrant, you could just hook up a couple portable monitors, or maybe the engine has a tele-squirt. (I kid, obviously...) Obviously there are limiting factors beyond the flow rate of the pump. My point was simply that a car fire that exceeds the firefighting capabilities of a single engine would be a very impressive car fire indeed.
    - FireBeyond 13y ago
      True. The last car fire I put out with two dry chem extinguishers from our rig (which is good, because our rig was an ambulance…) But yeah, maybe a ground monitor would work. :)
gcb0 13y ago
who in the world can tell the material of the thing you just run over on the highway? That said, I've seen more Lamborghini and lotuses on the highway bursting in flames than model S's (Ss? Ses?) And > Statistically, there have been fewer fatalities with Model S than the average for the number of miles driven Biggest fallacy ever read here. Most car accidents happens when people are traveling large distances or coming back from unusual places such as parties and bars (not home-work commute) and the Tesla and other low range electrical nowadays are mostly commute machines. (yeah they can be used for those things, but 99% of the people that actually buys them do not)
- nbouscal 13y ago
  > Most car accidents happens when people are traveling large distances or coming back from unusual places such as parties and bars (not home-work commute) Source please? I've always heard that the majority of accidents happen within the first few miles of a drive, but have not put in any research.
  - thrownaway2424 13y ago
    That's only because most trips are of a few miles.
- Noted 13y ago
  What is the source for " Most car accidents happens when people are traveling large distances or coming back from unusual places such as parties and bars (not home-work commute)" when most of the data I've seen says that most accidents occur within 5 miles from home and that only 1% of accidents occur further than 50 miles from home.
fizx 13y ago
It is, however, a fun day to become a Tesla shareholder.
- StavrosK 13y ago
  Does anyone know if it's possible for a foreigner with a US bank account to buy/manage stock there? Preferably online.
  - drx 13y ago
    You need a brokerage account with access to the US stock market. There are a few that allow foreigners.
  - rohansingh 13y ago
    I believe Charles Schwab provides global investment solutions that allow you to purchase US stock.
  - btian 13y ago
    Yes. Check out Interactive Brokers
  - vidarh 13y ago
    Yes, most US brokerages will accept foreigners. There's just a couple of things to pay attention to. - Make sure you know the tax arrangements between your country and the US, and file whatever documentation is needed. In the US, you'll probably want/need to file a form W-8BEN with the IRS (http://www.irs.gov/uac/Form-W-8BEN,-Certificate-of-Foreign-Status-of-Beneficial-Owner-for-United-States-Tax-Withholding http://www.irs.gov/uac/Form-W-8BEN,-Certificate-of-Foreign-S...) to prevent withholding taxes in the US. Most brokerages will be used to that anyway. - Documentation of your identity. If you have a US bank account already, this will likely be trivial for you. But sometimes US financial institutions gets finicky about this. I had a US bank account with Chase years ago as I had a small business where I had to process a reasonable number of US cheques, and processing them with a non-US bank would effectively eat everything in fees. I ended up having to go to the US embassy to get an apostille attached to copies of my passport and the application form (basically someone had to watch me sign the documents, and match them to my ID and then attach a document and seal as evidence that they had certified my signatures). Other times they don't care at all - it appears to be down to who has been subjected to cranky auditors and/or concerns about money laundering recently or not...

by marvin 13y ago

JimmaDaRustla 13y ago

Yes, Li-ion batteries can be like little bombs. Considering the batter was engulfed in a flame and safely contained...I'm pretty surprised and have a more positive view of Tesla now.

CamperBob2 13y ago
Indeed. SpaceX isn't public, or I would've bought their stock after seeing how their vehicle handled the aborted launch during their first ISS resupply mission. These guys understand the meaning of "fail safe."

symfoniq 13y ago

Moreover, when this sort of thing happens to a car that uses gasoline, the results can be far more catastrophic. "The freak accident occurred about 10:30 a.m. on Nov. 8, 1994, when the family was traveling to Wisconsin to celebrate birthdays. The van, driven by Scott Willis and carrying his wife and six of their nine children, struck a piece of debris that had fallen off a truck driven by Ricardo Guzman. The debris, a mudflap/taillight assembly, punctured the mini-van's gas tank, and the car burst into flames. Scott and Janet Willis managed to untangle themselves and escape, but the children were trapped and five of the six perished instantly. The oldest in the car, 12-year-old Ben, died the next day." http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2000-05-01/news/0005010161_1_willis-family-rev-duane-scott-willis-accident http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2000-05-01/news/000501016...

ofthecaribbean 13y ago
This is possible with a gas car, but the gas tank doesn't occupy the whole bottom of the car and even if it is punctured, it won't ignite unless there is some additional spark or heat source. Given the number of gas cars on the road, anything described as a "freak accident" must have a very low probability. If this is the 13th serious accident of a Tesla, it's unlikely that the probability is very low.
- samman 13y ago
  >If this is the 13th serious accident of a Tesla, it's unlikely that the probability is very low. I'm not sure you've followed the thread here...I don't think anyone's (accurately) saying that this is the 13th spontaneous battery accident. I'm pretty sure the other 12 are standard traffic accidents, of which this is the first to produce a battery fire. All in all, it seems a rather small sample size to make any kind of determination.
  - tedunangst 13y ago
    Assuming that the normal rate of battery fires after collisions is one per million, the probability of observing such a fire after only 13 collisions is rather low. (Not impossible, just unlikely.) so perhaps the rate is not one per million. Doesn't mean it's one in thirteen, just not one in a million.
    - 286c8cb04bda 13y ago
      If the chance of a catastrophic event happening is one-in-a-million, then it is equally likely to happen on the 13th and on the millionth coin toss. > Assuming that the normal rate of battery fires after collisions is one per million, the probability of observing such a fire after only 13 collisions is rather low. What you're arguing is that the probability of it happening on or before the 13th time is less than it happening on or before the millionth time -- Which is self-evidently true of _any_ probability, and is a much weaker argument. > perhaps the rate is not one per million This is much closer to the argument you should be making. I.e. "Given that a purported one-in-a-million event occurred after only the 13th test, what is the probability that their estimate of one-in-a-million is accurate?" (I don't know the math to answer that question, but I hope somebody that does will come along and chime in.)

IgorPartola 13y ago

12 crashes is not a huge sample size. Also, potholes and other road hazards are so common that if 0.1% of encounters with them causes a fire that ruins the very expensive battery pack, it is an issue. Overall, yes, superior engineering prevented the problem from being worse than it was. However, there is still a problem.

sally888 13y ago
IMHO, there is a major problem with Tesla's batteries. Boeing has had issues with its lithium-ion batteries catching on fire. I wouldn't be surprised if more Teslas have the same issues in the future.
- alexholehouse 13y ago
  > IMHO, there is a major problem with Tesla's batteries. Is this based on any kind of information, or just supposition stemming from the problems Boeing had (where, IIRC, Tesla offered to provide engineering assistance).
  - sally888 13y ago
    Well, the Chevy Volts' lithium ion batteries also have fire issues too. Not to mention overheated laptops with li-ion batteries that have caught on fire.
    - HeyItsJames 13y ago
      We're still waiting on any categorical information from you, other than your baseless fears stemming from problems with wholly different companies using similar technology.
    - smileysteve 13y ago
      News, Every car has batteries that are potential fire/explosion/acid explosions. I've seen a standard 12v lead acid battery evaporating/boiling hydrochloric acid out of its vent holes, I've also seen one smoking about to explode.

pizu 13y ago

in movies cars catch fire and explode all the time. guess, the movie industry will face an inevitable change when 20-50 years into the future everyone drives electric.

ianstallings 13y ago
Anytime energy is stored to be released there is a chance of disaster. Usually this manifests itself in fire.

joezydeco 13y ago

I'm kind of fascinated by the idea that the car is telling you to stop and get the hell out before doom happens. Does anyone have an image or video of that kind of notice?

IanDrake 13y ago
I used to have a K car that would tell me things like "Your door is ajar" and other random bits of information. Then one day, it said, "Your electrical system is malfunctioning." We all bust out laughing. If was funny until the engine stalled after 4 more miles. Turned out the alternator was dead.
- shabble 13y ago
  "My fault-detection circuitry may be malfunctioning, but I'm not sure how to tell"

bitops 13y ago

> Not a fun day to be a Tesla shareholder Only if you're fickle and lack conviction. People are talking a lot about "is Tesla at a fair valuation" and I personally believe that it's impossible to know what a fair valuation is until a few more years have elapsed. I could reasonably see Tesla bouncing back to $300/share over the next 18 months or staying at or around $200. The current drops are more likely related to general market unease and opportunism rather than anything endemically wrong with Tesla. Also, with "momentum" stocks I'm sure some people got in looking to make a quick buck and also some people are surely taking advantage of the general shutdown-related cacophony to short the stock so they can buy it at lower prices (I would). Fluctuations like this illustrate why one of the most important qualities an investor can have is patience. If you're trying to get rick quick, you'll be in trouble. But if you invest in solid companies that you understand, you should do well. Provided you do your homework, of course. I'll reiterate Peter Lynch's excellent advice from "One Up on Wall Street" - if the stock drops but the fundamentals still make sense, stick around to see how the story develops.

foobarqux 13y ago
You talk about fundamental value and then throw out a $200-300 share price. What valuation methodology could possibly come up with that absurd number?
- marvin 13y ago
  The correct stock market value of a company is the discounted sum of all its future earnings. This number is impossible to calculate, but investors can estimate it with probabilistic models (a discounted cash flow model, taking into account the probabilities of different scenarios). E.g. a simplification of such a model would be to create some plausible-looking probability histogram for the "fundamental" value of the company in 10 years. Many investors believe there is a significant probability that Tesla will be worth >100 billion in 10-15 years, i.e. one of the world's major automakers (perhaps one of the largest) due to a global shift to electric vehicles and its 5-year head start and patent moat. It's probably worth noting that multiple major analysts have performed such a DCF analysis and arrived at a number in this ballpark. Under these assumptions, a $200-300 share price isn't absurd. I can agree it's speculative and extrapolating a lot. But on the other hand a $40 price as some analysts are calling for, is IMHO more absurd since it ignores some very likely growth prospects. If companies were always valued on "fundamental" value, buying growth stocks would be guaranteed to make you a massive, market-beating return.

JshWright 13y ago

>The fire department was able to put out the fire with a single truck. Goodness I hope so... A modern fire engine can pump a couple thousand gallons of water and foam every minute...

FireBeyond 13y ago
A modern fire engine pumps around 1250-2000gpm. However it also only has around 750-1000 gallons of water onboard. So you'd better hope that there's a hydrant nearby. Also, hand lines are only 150-250gpm. A deck gun is pretty useless for a car fire (a - can't be aimed at below 0deg, and b - you'd have approximately 30 seconds of usable time to get any deluge on the car and extinguish it, which is not particularly realistic if it's at all involved).
- JshWright 13y ago
  You just need to get creative. Assuming you had a hydrant, you could just hook up a couple portable monitors, or maybe the engine has a tele-squirt. (I kid, obviously...) Obviously there are limiting factors beyond the flow rate of the pump. My point was simply that a car fire that exceeds the firefighting capabilities of a single engine would be a very impressive car fire indeed.
  - FireBeyond 13y ago
    True. The last car fire I put out with two dry chem extinguishers from our rig (which is good, because our rig was an ambulance…) But yeah, maybe a ground monitor would work. :)

gcb0 13y ago

who in the world can tell the material of the thing you just run over on the highway? That said, I've seen more Lamborghini and lotuses on the highway bursting in flames than model S's (Ss? Ses?) And > Statistically, there have been fewer fatalities with Model S than the average for the number of miles driven Biggest fallacy ever read here. Most car accidents happens when people are traveling large distances or coming back from unusual places such as parties and bars (not home-work commute) and the Tesla and other low range electrical nowadays are mostly commute machines. (yeah they can be used for those things, but 99% of the people that actually buys them do not)

nbouscal 13y ago
> Most car accidents happens when people are traveling large distances or coming back from unusual places such as parties and bars (not home-work commute) Source please? I've always heard that the majority of accidents happen within the first few miles of a drive, but have not put in any research.
- thrownaway2424 13y ago
  That's only because most trips are of a few miles.
Noted 13y ago
What is the source for " Most car accidents happens when people are traveling large distances or coming back from unusual places such as parties and bars (not home-work commute)" when most of the data I've seen says that most accidents occur within 5 miles from home and that only 1% of accidents occur further than 50 miles from home.

fizx 13y ago

It is, however, a fun day to become a Tesla shareholder.

StavrosK 13y ago
Does anyone know if it's possible for a foreigner with a US bank account to buy/manage stock there? Preferably online.
- drx 13y ago
  You need a brokerage account with access to the US stock market. There are a few that allow foreigners.
- rohansingh 13y ago
  I believe Charles Schwab provides global investment solutions that allow you to purchase US stock.
- btian 13y ago
  Yes. Check out Interactive Brokers
- vidarh 13y ago
  Yes, most US brokerages will accept foreigners. There's just a couple of things to pay attention to. - Make sure you know the tax arrangements between your country and the US, and file whatever documentation is needed. In the US, you'll probably want/need to file a form W-8BEN with the IRS (http://www.irs.gov/uac/Form-W-8BEN,-Certificate-of-Foreign-Status-of-Beneficial-Owner-for-United-States-Tax-Withholding http://www.irs.gov/uac/Form-W-8BEN,-Certificate-of-Foreign-S...) to prevent withholding taxes in the US. Most brokerages will be used to that anyway. - Documentation of your identity. If you have a US bank account already, this will likely be trivial for you. But sometimes US financial institutions gets finicky about this. I had a US bank account with Chase years ago as I had a small business where I had to process a reasonable number of US cheques, and processing them with a non-US bank would effectively eat everything in fees. I ended up having to go to the US embassy to get an apostille attached to copies of my passport and the application form (basically someone had to watch me sign the documents, and match them to my ID and then attach a document and seal as evidence that they had certified my signatures). Other times they don't care at all - it appears to be down to who has been subjected to cranky auditors and/or concerns about money laundering recently or not...