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Isaac Asimov's predictions for what the world will be like in 2014
- michaelpinto 13y agoI loved this "Communications will become sight-sound and you will see as well as hear the person you telephone. The screen can be used not only to see the people you call but also for studying documents and photographs and reading passages from books. Synchronous satellites, hovering in space will make it possible for you to direct-dial any spot on earth, including the weather stations in Antarctica (shown in chill splendor as part of the '64 General Motors exhibit)."
- jacques_chester 13y agoHe was right about Antarctica. In 1998 and 2001 my dad did winter missions with the Australian Antarctic Division née ANARE. Part of his job was keeping the satellite links functional. We got to talk to him on the phone once a week. On the numbers, he had more bandwidth than I did at the time -- 155kbps. Latency was a bit rough though.
- anigbrowl 13y agoRobots will neither be common nor very good in 2014, but they will be in existence. They're good but not common.
- DennisP 13y agoTo the author of I, Robot, they probably still wouldn't qualify as good.
- deleted 13y ago[deleted]
- arjn 13y agoHe was right about this one!
- area51org 13y agoThere are uncommon sort-of-good ones (by Asimov standards), but the semi-common ones are abysmal. Ever own a Roomba? I never will again.
- anigbrowl 13y agoI was thinking of semi-humanoid industrial robots, like this (prototype) model from ABB: http://www.abb.com/cawp/abbzh254/fcfbdad9a72cfe08c1257862006bcfbf.aspx http://www.abb.com/cawp/abbzh254/fcfbdad9a72cfe08c1257862006...
- cup 13y agoThey're pretty common in heavy industry.
- coldtea 13y agoHe meant humanoid robots, not fancy industrial automation.
- hugs 13y agoWhen a general-purpose robot (aka "something that looks like a human") is refined and improved for a particular task, it won't look like a robot anymore. Therefore, "robots" will never be good at anything, because once they're good, they're no longer robots. (e.g. dish washers, washing machine, coffee makers, laser cutters, CNC machines, etc.)
- coldtea 13y agoThat's incorrect. It assumes that the task is best served by non-humanoid forms. While that might be true for a laser cutter or a washing machine, there are lots of tasks that in order to be "refined and improved" for them, it should absolutely look like a human. An obvious example would be a sex-partner robot. Generally any kind of robot that serves humans and we want them to have better empathy towards it (e.g a robot to keep companion to the sick and the elderly). The same holds for robots that are to be used as spies, e.g to infiltrate some human community. Robots that could be used to play competitive sports for spectators. Robots that do stunt-doubling of actors or perform themselves. Also, if we want a robot to serve as a "personal assistant" (e.g a butler) the human form is very flexible (and it's flexibility and performance would be increased by the robot's extra capabilities, like more "muscle" power and speed, finer vision, etc). Such a form will be able to cook, restock the fridge, massage our back, play tennis, take the dog for a walk, clean the house, play poker, help us move, throw out the garbage etc. If you can have something like that, why use a specialized machine for each (for some of those actions, a dedicated machine would provide a luck-luster experience anyway).
- yen223 13y agoThey're common, but not good. Almost every factory has a robotic system, but they're not the sci-fi bipedal humanoid AI that people imagine we would have.
- eru 13y agoDepends on what you mean. Dish washing robots are OK and common.
- GrantS 13y agoIn fact, the animatronic 1964 GE pavillion show that Asimov is talking about can still be seen today at Disney World. It's called the Carousel of Progress, kind of tucked away behind the Buzz Lightyear ride in tomorrowland and sadly (but understandably) not as popular as it used to be. http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walt_Disney's_Carousel_of_Progress http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walt_Disney's_Carousel_of_Pro...
- jonahx 13y agoI'd be curious to know if anyone has ever written one of these types of predictions, at any period in history predicting another period 50+ years out, and not had a large percentage of big misses.
- ctdonath 13y agoIn 1900, The Ladies' Home Journal had a long list of "What May Happen in the Next Hundred Years" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J._Elfreth_Watkins http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J._Elfreth_Watkins with most of the predictions either spot-on or close enough (them being unable to conceive of the means to the end, but getting the gist of the prediction right).
- dobbsbob 13y agoGeorge Orwell, William Gibson, Star Trek writers.
- yk 13y agoGibson, like everybody else, had completely missed cell phones.
- danielq 13y agoThis was amazingly accurate!
- Syros 13y agoI think it's important to note here that Asimov was never a big proponent of the "science fiction author as Nostradamus" theory. He was always very clear that neither his nor any other writer's predictions should be given any more credibility than the average Joe off the street. In fact, I'm pretty puzzled as to why this article was written at all.
- atgm 13y ago> In fact, I'm pretty puzzled as to why this article was written at all. He shifted away from fiction and into non-fiction (textbooks, educational books, and newspaper columns) in the early 60s. This probably falls into the "scientific education" niche in some form. My understanding is that Asimov did not believe in science fiction as a clear-cut prophecy of the future but did enjoy talking about what effects modern-day science and achievements could have on the future and the society of the future in non-fiction. He very much enjoyed making science -- and knowledge in general -- more accessible to other people.
- taitems 13y agoIntentional or not, he has certainly predicted technology that has only recently come into existence. They may seem obvious now, but I wonder how inevitable they seemed during the 50s and 60s? Take for instance the Multivac: it is essentially Wolfram Alpha, even down to the pro-tier pricing he mentions in one short story.
- ijk 13y agoI suspect Wolfram Alpha was explicitly designed with Multivac in mind, either directly or indirectly through the general idea of an oracular AI machine. Google, on the other hand, is a bit more alien--though I have met plenty of people who try to address Google as if it was Multivac (or Siri, I suppose).
- coldtea 13y ago>Take for instance the Multivac: it is essentially Wolfram Alpha, even down to the pro-tier pricing he mentions in one short story. Or it would be, if Wolfram Alpha wasn't tragically limited. Given the grandiose annoucements when it came out, I expected a lot more than a wikipedia meets scientific calculator with sub-Siri query intelligence.
- asr2bd 13y agoI wish he was right about the education part
- leeny 13y agoI guess he never anticipated that "the best minds of [our] generation are thinking about how to make people click ads."[1] [1] http://www.smh.com.au/business/world-business/why-this-tech-bubble-is-different-20110415-1dhbm.html#ixzz2dDwQHDql http://www.smh.com.au/business/world-business/why-this-tech-...
- contingencies 13y agoOr extracting wealth from the digitally accelerated, cataclysmic, climactic failure of the economic system of yore. Or the legal systems, fairly similarly. Or to global surveillance systems dangling carrots for citizens but storing all of their data: location, human communications, etc. forever.
- edem 13y agoYour post reminds me of this image: http://joking.of-cour.se/files/2009/02/2393382.jpg http://joking.of-cour.se/files/2009/02/2393382.jpg
- dredmorbius 13y agoCatabolic Collapse and Rent Seeking are largely the same thing: http://www.ecoshock.org/transcripts/greer_on_collapse.pdf http://www.ecoshock.org/transcripts/greer_on_collapse.pdf Ads, FIRE industries, intellectual property feudalism, and microcode: it's where the fiscal hoarding opportunities are. They're creating little if any real wealth.
- lowglow 13y agoJust read Diamond Age.
- CCs 13y agoCache: http://www.readability.com/articles/woerybqt http://www.readability.com/articles/woerybqt (New York Times seems to be down)
- ijk 13y ago(Because of the other news item today): https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6286374 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6286374
- tokenadult 13y ago"Even so, mankind will suffer badly from the disease of boredom, a disease spreading more widely each year and growing in intensity. This will have serious mental, emotional and sociological consequences, and I dare say that psychiatry will be far and away the most important medical specialty in 2014." It is a striking finding of cross-cultural studies of suicide that many of the places with especially high suicide rates, and many of the cultural subgroups with high suicide rates among groups who live in the same place, are the advantaged rather than the disadvantaged. While people have to struggle to survive, they stay alive to continue the struggle. When people's basic needs are all met, they sometimes doubt the meaningfulness of living. "Why Suicides Are More Common in Richer Neighborhoods" http://business.time.com/2012/11/08/why-suicides-are-more-common-in-richer-neighborhoods/ http://business.time.com/2012/11/08/why-suicides-are-more-co...
- mixmastamyk 13y agoVery similar comments on this story: "The Problem with Delhi's Rich Kids (wsj.com)" https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6237893 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6237893
- wikiburner 13y agoThe suicidal in lower income situations could succumb to it in more subtle ways, for example heroin, crack, or meth overdose, suicide by gang, suicide by cop, etc.
- wildgift 13y agoThat seems very different. That's more like exciting, risky behavior mixed in with a deathwish.
- solistice 13y agoIf you have nothing to loose and a death wish, you go on a rampage. If you have a reputation to uphold postmortem, going that route seems to be out of question. One route would be death due to work exhaustion, which the Japanese actually have a word for: "Karoshi". The other, more direct, is suicide. There's many ways in which a deathwish can manifest, they're not limited to suicide.
- BecauseWeCan 13y ago"Even so, mankind will suffer badly from the disease of boredom, a disease spreading more widely each year and growing in intensity. This will have serious mental, emotional and sociological consequences, and I dare say that psychiatry will be far and away the most important medical specialty in 2014. The lucky few who can be involved in creative work of any sort will be the true elite of mankind, for they alone will do more than serve a machine." This bit is spot on.
- patdennis 13y ago>"Windows need be no more than an archaic touch, and even when present will be polarized to block out the harsh sunlight. The degree of opacity of the glass may even be made to alter automatically in accordance with the intensity of the light falling upon it." This actually makes me curious. Why don't we have photochromic windows? We use the technology in transition lenses.
- jlgreco 13y agoI think the technology is just too expensive unless you want to show off: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smart_glass http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smart_glass
- otikik 13y agoA relatively cheap alternative is taking 2 polarized pieces of glass and making them rotate one on top of the other - that way the amount of light they let through is variable. The main drawback is that it requires circular windows with mechanical rotors. There is also a patent that allegedly doesn't require rotation, but I have never seen it realized: http://www.google.com/patents/US6414790 http://www.google.com/patents/US6414790
- coldtea 13y ago>At the New York World's Fair of 2014, General Motors' "Futurama" may well display vistas of underground cities complete with light- forced vegetable gardens. Amazing prediction! Well, he got the GM part wrong, but indeed, there was a series called "Futurama" and it DID display "vistas of underground cities" (New New York)!
- mehwoot 13y agoThe series Futurama was named for such displays at the world fairs. The name Futurama comes from a pavilion at the 1939 New York World's Fair. Designed by Norman Bel Geddes, the Futurama pavilion depicted how he imagined the world would look in 1959. I presume the New York World's Fair of 1964 had a display with a similar name which is what he is talking about.
- scardine 13y agoNot complete underground cities, but there are plenty underground marijuana light-forced gardens out there... Even with panels that change colors (some growers use different wavelengths for vegetative and flowering stages). :-)
- solistice 13y agoYou seem to know an awful lot about growing marijuana. Past work experience?
- rollo_tommasi 13y agoThere was recently an exhibit in NYC showing off the underground 'light-forced garden' concept, although it was a park rather than a produce garden: http://thelowline.org/ http://thelowline.org/
- caublestone 13y agoAt the time of this writing, GM was the largest corporation in America. Think about the largest corporations today and then replace those names where GM is.
- coldtea 13y ago>And experimental fusion-power plant or two will already exist in 2014. (Even today, a small but genuine fusion explosion is demonstrated at frequent intervals in the G.E. exhibit at the 1964 fair.) Anybody knows what happened to that G.E fusion thing he mentions?
- eru 13y agoIt was probably a Fusor (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusor https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusor). You can put one on your desk at home, if you care.
- ricardobeat 13y agoRound-up: ✗ EL panels (not yet) ✗ Smart glass (unless you own a ferrari) ✓ Frozen meals + programmable microwave ✓ Lame robots ✓ 3D movies ✗ Fusion power plants ✗ Radioactive batteries ✓ Solar power ✓ Self-driving cars (in progress) ✗ Moving sidewalks (do airport conveyors count?) ✓ Video calls ✓ Mobile data, sharing, e-books ✓ Global mobile phone network ✗ Moon colonies (double fail since he just takes them for granted) ✓ Fiber-optics ✓ Unmanned mars missions, plans for a colony (mars one etc) ✓ Flat screen TVs ✓ 3D display tech demos ✓ Meat substitutes ✓ Digital teaching aids (kinda) ✓ Boredom and consumerism
- zanny 13y agoOn some of the missing ones: 1. We have at least one fusion plant I know of, the UK Joint Torus, which I know have been operating for decades. It just consumes more power than it generates. But Asimov suggests one or two, which is strikingly accurate. 2. We could probably make radio-decay batteries (maybe not AA size, but car batteries running on Thorium or some such, albeit an extremely expensive containment for something running so hot). We probably just don't do it because the radiation risks are too high. And I'd count airport conveyors as moving sidewalks. Or just the complexity of baggage carrying systemes in those airports, lend that we easily have the technoloy to create weather resistant rotary motor systems as sidewalks, but like Asimovs suggestions of underground housing, cost is the bigger prohibitor than technology. Also, I don't think the degree of boredom he touches on has occured. Consumerism and the wealth concentration in the US has kept people needing to maintain 40 hour work weeks where productivity is magnitudes higher. We produce vastly more, but work as much as ever. Back in the 60s the sentiment was that 21st century Americans might have 10 hour work weeks.
- dllu 13y ago1. The National Ignition Facility [1] recently reported record amounts of energy produced by laser-based fusion, but it is more of a research facility than a power plant. 2. Do the betavoltaics [2] in some early pacemakers and the small reactor on spacecraft and the Mars Science Laboratory count as radioactive batteries? But I am assuming that, since betavoltaic pacemakers and nuclear spacecraft have been around since Asimov's time, they probably don't count. [1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Ignition_Facility http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Ignition_Facility [2] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betavoltaics http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betavoltaics
- purplelobster 13y agoThe most accurate prediction is to predict that most things will stay the same.
- milesf 13y agoWhere's my flying car?!? I was promised a flying car and I want it right now!
- gaius 13y agoUnless you are over 60, you weren't. You were promised an oppressive cyberpunk dystopia - and here it is #nsa
- osetinsky 13y agoDid he predict that the Syrian Electronic Army would take down the nytimes?
- adamconroy 13y agoVery good Isaac. Except the robots are allowed to kill.
- Roboprog 13y agoI'm sure the drone-bots' creators view it as a matter of preventing inaction which allows humans to come to harm (and not considering the vic's as human, alas)
- jpatokal 13y agoAsimov's own biases shine through pretty clearly in the initial bit: One thought that occurs to me is that men will continue to withdraw from nature in order to create an environment that will suit them better. By 2014, electroluminescent panels will be in common use. Ceilings and walls will glow softly, and in a variety of colors that will change at the touch of a push button. Windows need be no more than an archaic touch, and even when present will be polarized to block out the harsh sunlight. The degree of opacity of the glass may even be made to alter automatically in accordance with the intensity of the light falling upon it. He was, rather famously, an acrophobe who disliked heights and open spaces and never flew when he could help it, so apparently he'd prefer a future without windows and sunlight. There is an underground house at the fair which is a sign of the future. if its windows are not polarized, they can nevertheless alter the "scenery" by changes in lighting. Suburban houses underground, with easily controlled temperature, free from the vicissitudes of weather, with air cleaned and light controlled, should be fairly common. At the New York World's Fair of 2014, General Motors' "Futurama" may well display vistas of underground cities complete with light- forced vegetable gardens. The surface, G.M. will argue, will be given over to large-scale agriculture, grazing and parklands, with less space wasted on actual human occupancy. This depiction of life pretty much exactly mirrors the completely walled-in life of The Caves of Steel, which many readers found dystopian, but for him was more of a utopia. http://stason.org/TULARC/education-books/isaac-asimov/2-11-Is-it-true-that-Isaac-Asimov-had-a-fear-of-flying.html#.Uh1qGqwecak http://stason.org/TULARC/education-books/isaac-asimov/2-11-I...
- xixixao 13y agoThis is true, but SPOILER: // // // // In Asimov's universe, humans do end up leaving their caves. So in the end, Asimov turns to the stars. // // //
- nohuck13 13y agoMaybe it's because of biases like these, but we tend to vastly underestimate the timespans in which cities can be radically remade. 50 years? Commercial buildings being built in 1964 would have been expected to last 50+ years. Much of Chicago's lakefront is buildings from the turn of the 20th century or earlier. A skyscraper taller than 47 floors has never been demolished peacefully [1] 1 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-20535821 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-20535821
- polymathist 13y ago"...there will be increasing emphasis on transportation that makes the least possible contact with the surface. There will be aircraft, of course, but even ground travel will increasingly take to the air*a foot or two off the ground. Visitors to the 1964 fair can travel there in an "aquafoil," which lifts itself on four stilts and skims over the water with a minimum of friction. This is surely a stop-gap. By 2014 the four stilts will have been replaced by four jets of compressed air so that the vehicle will make no contact with either liquid or solid surfaces." Sounds a little bit like the hyperloop, no?
- wtallis 13y agoThe Hyperloop definitely comes to mind, but I think hovercraft are a well-established realization of what he predicted there.
- codezero 13y agoCouldn't wait for 2014 to post this, huh? :P
- craftshape 13y ago- What will the World's Fair of 2014 be like? - At the New York World's Fair of 2014, General Motors' "Futurama" may well display vistas of underground cities complete with light- forced vegetable gardens. - In fact, one popular exhibit at the 2014 World's Fair will be such a 3-D TV, built life-size, in which ballet performances will be seen. - The 2014 World's Fair will have exhibits showing cities in the deep sea with bathyscaphe liners carrying men and supplies across and into the abyss. - One of the more serious exhibits at the 2014 World's Fair, accordingly, will be a series of lectures, movies and documentary material at the World Population Control Center (adults only; special showings for teen-agers). Summary from http://textteaser.com http://textteaser.com
- a3voices 13y agoThis is a good description of how much we've failed as a society. Since we haven't accomplished most of those things.
- barbs 13y agoAt the risk of sounding pedantic, should the title for this HN submission have (1964) at the end of it?
- b0rsuk 13y agoWhy are moving sidewalks so incredibly popular in old SF novels ?!?! The concept is silly. The constant energy use is a showstopper, and even if you assume thorium reactors would handle it, there's material fatigue. Another early SF prediction which which is baffling today: everything (houses, cars, highways) made of... plastic. Plastic being the material of the future. But perhaps it's not as naive, seeing as early plastic was really durable, some our plastic bowls are still in good shape after 20 years. LEGOs are very durable, too. Hovercars - ordinary 2D cars are one of most common causes of mortal accidents today. Imagine the chaos with an extra dimension! Hoverbuses - perhaps, but cars ??? But the one that really cracks me up is by Strugatsky brothers: carbonated soured milk (Impossible according to one chemist).
- dclowd9901 13y agoFiberglass siding, modular order-and-build houses are made of plastic, and the matter looks pretty damn futuristic and cool.
- skrause 13y agoThe future from the 50s and 60s would also be pretty loud. With the recent discussions about the annoyance of leaf blowers, image the noise of a city where each car would have this: "Jets of compressed air will also lift land vehicles off the highways, which, among other things, will minimize paving problems"
- bart42_0 13y agoIt would be fun to write a 'Visit to the World's Fair of 2064'
- traughber 13y agoWe still have four months left!
- dredmorbius 13y agoLet's judge... The piece is less optimistic and cornucopian than I'd expected. The first part is pretty light, but it turns a shade dark, especially for. The prediction record includes a few failures but surprisingly more hits than I expected. men will continue to withdraw from nature Yes and no. Our environments are more artificial, but we're not living in hermetically sealed enclosures. Electroluminescent panels .... Ceilings and walls will glow softly. It's simply vastly less expensive and more flexible to have light fixtures than to change out your entire interior room skin when you want to change your lighting scheme. Though what's becoming possible with LED lighting is fairly distinctive. Most lamps are designe around traditional bulbs though. Windows ... no more than an archaic touch. Asimov highly underestimates the desire of people to see the outdoors. We do have glasses with extensive coatings, though most are aimed at UV and thermal radiation. Again, the low-tech approach of blinds or curtains allows for more styling at lower cost than electronically dimmable windows, though these exist (for a price). Asimov fails to forsee photovoltaic cells integrated into window designs, another technology starting to emerge today. His future is apparently energy-abundant. Suburban houses underground Again: costs, tradition, and views make this a very rare exception, though some high-efficiency homes are built partially below grade. Gadgetry It turns out that the easiest way to automate meal preparation ... is to centralize the gadgetry at a food-preparation facility. We have TV dinners (which existed in 1964), as well as take-out and other options for food. Though microwaves can be convenient. I wonder how Asimov would have responded to the craze for restaurant-style kitchens in private homes. Robots They're rather less common or good than Asimov supposed. As with cooking gadgets, it turns out that it's difficult to design something that can navigate a home (including stairs and uneven surfaces), perform tasks, usefully, and not cost a bundle. Especially when competing with low-cost maid services. No electric cords Well, that was optimistic. Though the variety of cordless power tools now available is fairly impressive. I'm afraid, though, that my home is rather infested with current-feeding snakes of various descriptions. Fusion power plants. The power plant of the future. And it always will be. Solar power Here I'd say we're exceeding Asimov slightly: we've got large plants, though not as many as I'd like to see, and distributed solar in the form of panels on houses and other extant structures is pretty commonplace, even in less favorable locations such as Germany. models of power stations in space alas, are all I suspect we'll ever see. Perhaps several hundred years out. The world of 50 years hence will have shrunk further. We certainly do have a great deal more transportation, though our basic modes haven't changed, nor have top travel speeds, from what was available in Asimov's day. The biggest change is the proliferation of high-speed rail systems. Slower than jet aviation of 1964, but more prevalent, at least along covered routes. Which exclude the United States. The first such line had already been in operation for a decade, however, in 1964: Japan's Tōkaidō Line. Hovercraft: other than military applications, not used to any significant extent. Hoverspeed, operator of the English Channel hovercraft ferries, converted fully to catamaran operations in 2000. Along with land hovercraft, the energy required for lift is excessive, directional control a challenge, and the overall effort not worthwhile. vehicles with "Robot-brains" In extensive field trials. I'd say we're actually roughly where Asimov predicted we'd be in this regard, not bad. moving sidewalks Expensive and prone to breakdowns when used outdoors, but heavily relied on in airports and some other regions of high pedestrian traffic. Though without the benches he supposes. As with other predictions, Asimov goes for flair over practicality: it's vastly more convenient to put benches on a wheeled (or tracked) vehicle than it is to move an entire roadbed. Trolley cars are effectively providing the service he describes, and had been for nearly 100 years when he wrote his piece. Communications Yes, we've got A/V communications, but more comms has actually moved to text for a simple reason: it's asynchronous. And easily storeable and searchable. Asimov is also spot-on for satellites, though that's a fundamental technology whose basic concept is largely unchanged from Arthur C. Clarke's first proposals. Direct-dialing weather stations in remote locations is in fact something I've enjoyed, though generally via a Web browser. Moon colonies Nope. That gravity toll is a real bitch, Ike. laser beams Spot on here: communications are carried increasingly by light, not radio waves, though in fibers, not beamed through space or the air. Astronomical telemetry remains radio-based. television wall screens Also spot on. Pity he didn't call for 3D to be a brief overhyped fad, or I'd have been truly impressed. Population Well, he only fell short by half a billion, though his US estimate is high (actual is 313 million). increasing penetration of desert and polar areas Somewhat, though mostly people are crowding into existing cities. Though the growth of cities such as Phoenix, Salt Lake City, and Las Vegas counts as desert growth to me. Underwater housing Yes. But not in the way he'd intended. Our continental shelves are still largely habitation-free, unless one has redefined New Orleans and certain boroughs of New York City as belonging to the shelf.... And other than the Costa Concordia, bathyscaphe liners are few and far between. Processed yeast and algae Vegemite and nori flakes aside, not so much. And I really don't see the cultured burger going very far. Not all the world's population will enjoy the gadgety world Correct. That part of the population will make the gadgets. They will have moved backward, relatively. That's rather stunningly prescient. Calls to mind the 99%. Nor can technology continue to match population growth Part of the Zeitgeist. The first rumblings of limits were starting to echo about in the 1960s, though the Club of Rome's Limits to Growth wasn't published until 1972. Undoubtedly, the world of A.D. 2014 will have agreed on the [lowering the birth rate]. Sadly, not. lifted the life expectancy in some parts of the world to age 85. Yes. Japan most notably. birth control by rational and humane methods It exists. Birth control pills were already available by the late 1950s, though formal approval didn't arrive until 1960. And of course, the Catholic Church, GOP, and Tea Party are entirely on board. Sigh. automation Yes and no. Great strides in manufacturing (really, we've got to come up with a better word than "hand made" to describe, well, other than hand made stuff), though there's still a great deal of manual processes. In other areas, humans are cheaper, more reliable, more adaptable to harsh or adverse conditions, and more easily instructed, than robots. Though automation and labor costs and rates are presenting challenges. Machine tenders isn't a bad description for many of us, and Asimov's comments on teaching and the place of fundamentals of tech are pretty accurate. And his comments on boredom may also be more accurate than many hear accept. We're seeing the world from a perspective of another 50 years of technological progress and divorce from direct physical labor -- labor which while it can be wearying, is also engaging. And there are certainly a wide range of psychological issues, particularly depression, present in our 2014.
- chris_wot 13y agoSo it looks like NYTimes is down.
- transfire 13y agoWhat I don't think Mr. Asimov could have imagined is the rise of the Oligarchs, dominated primarily by the heads of the banking industry, though also by the petrochemical and a few other top-tier industries. These individuals have increasingly distorted the free-market system and corrupted the political systems to satisfy their own narrow ends. They are financial protectionists. And because of them a great deal of innovation that could have been has been stymied. I would argue that if it were not for their depressing effects on society, Mr. Asimov's predictions would now look rather underwhelming by comparison, as we would have achieved far more than he predicted. Alas, given our current state of affairs, I do not think it possible for society to advanced very far beyond were it currently stands. And in a matter of decades we are likely to start moving backwards rather then forwards. On that mark, with his concerns on population growth, I believe Mr. Asimov hit it squarely on the head.
- btbuildem 13y agoPff, Asimov. I don't understand why people hold him in such high esteem, his imagination was flat and lacking. Want to read some real futurology and prime-cut sci-fi? Check out Stanislaw Lem. (eg. Peace on Earth -- it will blow your mind).
- jloughry 13y agoBest: the subtle mis-prediction that there would be a 2014 World's Fair. I think we have the Web today instead.
- hexis 13y agoI think he was only off by a year - http://www.milanworldsfair.com/ http://www.milanworldsfair.com/
- jimgardener 13y agowhy do I keep getting a 'server not found' error ? you guys seem to be able to access this url.. however I had to google this heading and read the article @ http://www.mydogear.com/articles/521d762aa97dca07b21805ea http://www.mydogear.com/articles/521d762aa97dca07b21805ea
- emerod 13y ago<i>All high school students will be taught the fundamentals of computer technology, will become proficient in binary arithmetic and will be trained to perfection in the use of the computer languages that will have developed out of those like the contemporary "Fortran" (from "formula translation").</i> We're still working on this one.
- squozzer 13y agoNot bad, but had to laugh at his statement, "All earth will be a single choked Manhattan by A.D. 2450 and society will collapse long before that!" Uh, a collapsed society could not support a growing population, Dr. A.