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Choosing Hong Kong Is a Brilliant Move by Edward Snowden

527 points by teawithcarl 13y ago

reiichiroh 13y ago
It's strange the Falun Gong paper Epoch Times hasn't written more about this case.
deleted 13y ago
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dfc 13y ago
Since we lack space and spend lots of time cooped up in small rooms, we have taken to the virtual world like ducks to water Sounds awesome, you have to love a lack of options.
gruseom 13y ago
This is by far the most informative [edit: if speculative] article I've read on Snowden's choice of Hong Kong, which has been the most puzzling detail of the whole story. If true, it explains a lot, not just about why he chose Hong Kong but also about his subsequent interview with the press there. Can HNers who know Hong Kong shed light on how plausible it is? It's striking how one obscure blog post can be more valuable than all the media speculation on this question (that I've seen) put together. That doesn't make its interpretation true, of course. But the alternate explanation that was going through my head seems a bit movie-esque by comparison.
- glurgh 13y ago
  It's striking how one obscure blog post can be more valuable than all the media speculation on this question (that I've seen) put together. The infographic is taken from the South China Morning Post, a mainstream media outlet. It's followed by some verbiage about the speed of the Hong Kong judiciary and then a mention of a murder trial (actually, two trials) that's gone on for nearly 10 years - but that's a murder trial, not an extradition proceeding. This is just as speculative as anything else but from what little we've learned about Snowden, he just doesn't strike me as some fiendishly clever schemer. If I had to guess, I'd say he went to Hong Kong because he has an interest in Chinese language and culture and went to the most comfortable place in China that's China-but-not-quite.
  - deleted 13y ago
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  - AVTizzle 13y ago
    I can't tell if you're being sarcastic. I don't imagine an "interest in Chinese language and culture" would have anything to do with this decision.
    - wavefunction 13y ago
      He mentioned picking up Mandarin in one of his Ars posts, I think. Not "fiendishly" clever, just apparently more clever than the folks running our intelligence services.
      - OstiaAntica 13y ago
        Mandarin is not widely spoken in Hong Kong-- locals speak Cantonese and Mandarin was not taught in school while HK was under British rule.
        eru 13y ago
        Yes, but lots of people speak Mandarin now, either for doing business with the PRC or because they are PRC immigrants.
        wavefunction 13y ago
        Certainly I know this about Cantonese, but I'm just relating to you what I had read.
      - tokenadult 13y ago
        Snowden is not proficient in Chinese, no way. (I am, by test.) As Confucius said, in one of his most famous take-downs, "始吾於人也、聽其言而信其行、今吾於人也、聽其言而觀其行。At first in dealing with people, I would hear their words and trust their deeds, but now my way of dealing with people is to hear their words and observe their deeds." We'll see what appears about his planning and his view toward China and a lot of other things about him as he continues interaction with news media and the governmental authorities of various governments.
- fnordfnordfnord 13y ago
  Not a resident, but I have spent some time there. Phone service is indeed cheap. SIM cards are bought at every kind of venue right on down to carts on the street. No ID needed, no contract. You give money, you get SIM card with nn minutes. Handsets are cheap too, really cheap, like throw away cheap. I hadn't thought about that from a signals intelligence perspective, but I bet that fact combined with the density of people would make it quite challenging to find his signal from among the others. Speaking of people density, guaranteed, no drone strikes in HK. Also, probably no movie-style snatch and grabs in HK. Aside from the tension that would cause in US/China foreign affairs, traffic would prevent that from happening most hours of the day. It would definitely not go unnoticed.
  - robryan 13y ago
    Yeah, I was also amazed at how good the 3g was on a random sim I bought at the airport. Works great in the metro too which is awesome coming from Melbourne and having no connectivity between stations in our metro.
- joonix 13y ago
  I haven't seen any articles discuss a major issue: his immigration status. If he's on a visitor/business visa he likely only has 6-12 months in the country. If he's there as a tourist, 90 days. If he overstays his visa, he can be arrested and deported.
  - fnordfnordfnord 13y ago
    Day trip to Macau might fix that. I bet he can get a special accommodation though.
    - reedlaw 13y ago
      He might face extradition at the border, depending on how Macau-China-US relations work.
      - fnordfnordfnord 13y ago
        Macau is a Special Administrative Region, of the PRC just as HK is. An entry/exit is sufficient to reset the timer on your entry visa with the mainland. I'm assuming the same thing works between HK and Macau, but I've never tested it.
  - akiselev 13y ago
    By which time he can probably get a Visa somewhere else and rinse and repeat, shuffling between two secure locations and flight paths. Once extradition proceedings have begun, he can no longer be deported. Deportation and removal orders still have to go through the court system though: http://www.hkhrm.org.hk/english/reports/eimrev96.html#Deportation http://www.hkhrm.org.hk/english/reports/eimrev96.html#Deport...
    - cema 13y ago
      shuffling between two secure locations and flight paths That would still be observable and therefore risky.
- leephillips 13y ago
  "It's striking how one obscure blog post can be more valuable than all the media speculation on this question (that I've seen) put together." Perhaps this still qualifies as striking, but it's becoming rapidly more common, as mainstream journalism becomes ever more predictable and imitative, and individuals with expertise and actual insight, not working for news organizations, stand out as the only voices worth paying attention to.
  - Estragon 13y ago
    Yeah, I stopped reading the MSM in 2003 when Juan Cole was blogging about stuff which didn't appear in mainstream sources until months later.
  - pvdm 13y ago
    Not to mention they missed the whole subprime mortage crisis and never questioned the weapons of mass destruction ruse for invading Iraq.
  - SkyMarshal 13y ago
    Exactly. Blogging allows subject matter experts to easily, cheaply publish, be widely read, and compete for eyeballs with the MSM. There's no way most people who just went to Journalism school can compete with, say, an experienced Constitutional lawyer like Greenwald or Lessig, or hacker like PG or Spolsky, or VC like Fred Wilson etc. But there are some things MSM can still do - good professional journalists can still round up experts and put together a composite of their views. Or they do real investigative journalism that bloggers may not have the resources for, be it Bloomberg suing the Federal Reserve under FOIA [1], or sending reporters to hotspots for first-hand reporting. Personally I think a combination of data journalism and investigative journalism (like WaPo's Top Secret America [2] and Bloomberg's FOIA lawsuit and reporting) are their best way forward. Both require resources most individual bloggers can't provide, and both are real news, real journalism. [1]: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-23/fed-s-once-secret-data-compiled-by-bloomberg-released-to-public.html http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-23/fed-s-once-secret-d... [2]: http://projects.washingtonpost.com/top-secret-america/ http://projects.washingtonpost.com/top-secret-america/
vph 13y ago
Brilliant move, maybe, unless he was manipulated by the Chinese. It is very interesting that the allegation that the NSA has been hacking into Chinese systems came out at the time when the US and China are meeting and Obama is trying to admonish the Chinese on hacking. It would be interesting to explore if Edward Snowden has any handler. And how exactly he chose Hong Kong and decided to reveal that the NSA has been hacking the Chinese.
- pilsetnieks 13y ago
  The allegation was that they are hacking everyone. And Obama is meeting someone from everywhere every other week.
- vidarh 13y ago
  It is "very interesting" in the sense that Snowden may have realised that strategically talking to Chinese press and leaking information that would be likely to be looked upon favorably by the Chinese government at this time would be likely to be beneficial to his chances of avoiding extradition in the future. I'm not sure what you are trying to imply - the choice and timing of that particular leak would seem to be a logical choice once he'd chosen somewhere to go.
  - vph 13y ago
    If he is afraid of being charged in the US, I would think he wouldn't have done this in the first place. Initially, it is said he did this because he cared about Americans. But by working with the Chinese, he is no longer a patriot in the eyes of many Americans. Overall, it appears like he was manipulated or at least fueled by the Chinese operatives.
spitx 13y ago
CBS' Bob Schieffer on Snowden's junket: "For one thing, I don't remember Martin Luther King, Jr., or Rosa Parks running off and hiding in China. The people who ran the civil-rights movement were willing to break the law and suffer the consequences." "That's a little different than putting the nation's security at risk and running away." "What I see in Edward Snowden is just a narcissistic young man who has decided he is smarter than the rest of us" "I don't know what he is beyond that. But he is no hero. If he has a point — which I'm not sure he does — he would help his cause by voluntarily coming home to face the consequences." Source: Schieffer to Snowden: Come home, face the consequences http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IU5-r6mw6nQ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IU5-r6mw6nQ
- deleted 13y ago
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- onli 13y ago
  Useful to know how the enemy is arguing. Sure, the consequences are torture, imprisonment and death. But who wouldn't take those consequences to be a real hero?
  - untog 13y ago
    Using phrases like 'the enemy' doesn't really help raise the level of debate.
    - onli 13y ago
      I didn't mean spitx - the comment didn't make clear that this was his position. I doubt Bob Schieffer will read this. You're right though.
  - spitx 13y ago
    Did Daniel Ellsberg bolt for a communist nation, sympathetic to his views after releasing the Pentagon papers? No, he turned himself in. Snowden wants all the glory and none of the bruises. If that doesn't demonstrate a lack of selflessness, what does? Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daniel_Ellsberg#Trial_and_mistrial http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daniel_Ellsberg#Trial_and_mistr...
crazygringo 13y ago
I'm curious... is there anything currently preventing him from flying to a further country as well? I'm not aware of there being a warrant out for his arrest or anything yet... What would happen today if he just hopped on the next flight to Iceland or Ecuador or wherever else (or let's just assume nonstop flights)?
- pilsetnieks 13y ago
  Anywhere except the UK, UK airlines or connecting flights through UK - http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jun/14/dont-fly-edward-snowden-uk-airlines-told http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jun/14/dont-fly-edward-...
- anologwintermut 13y ago
  Apparently INTERPOL can issue red notices that are not public. So its possible if he tried to leave Hong Kong under his own ID he'd get arrested. I assume he doesn't have a real forged passport. But how hard do they check for leaving Hong Kong? Could he get to Iceland and instead of trying to fool Icelandic passport control, just request asylum?
  - XorNot 13y ago
    Pretty hard? China has steep controls on its own citizens leaving China. Hong Kong is now part of China, and probably a favoured way out.
    - pyre 13y ago
      Travel between HK and 'mainland' China regulated, as I understand it. It's possible that China is looking more closely to that border as an escape point than people leaving HK.
      - XorNot 13y ago
        "Closely" is a relative term when it comes to airport. I'd think Chinese intelligence would be paying very close attention to someone who the US wants to arrest within their borders, seeing as how it impacts relations with their biggest trading partner.
jsnk 13y ago
Fourth point about Hong Kong being under China probably has a significant effect that public cannot know about to full extent. It's not a outright conspiracy to believe that there's a largely hidden but real power struggle between US and China. China probably likes the fact that Snowden has brought NSA and US government into public scrutiny and they are probably plotting a way to make the best out of it.
- gbog 13y ago
  I don't think so. China has so many problems, it's government always preferred the status quo, anything new like this is considered a threat to political stability: imagine if a few Chinese decided to go Snowden way?
  - pyre 13y ago
    It can be spun other ways too. Snowden could be heralded as "proof" that China is better than the US. "US citizen flees oppressive government, seeking refuge in China." I'm sure that this incident will also enter the lexicon of North Korea when they try to bring up the bad things that US has/may have done in order to justify their own actions.
    - gbog 13y ago
      Do you think that Chinese are that stupid? They all know their wealthy elite send kids and wife to the US, why would they do that if China was better?
      - pyre 13y ago
        The way that I understand it, a lot of the propaganda that the Chinese see in the media is known to be propaganda (i.e. it's not fooling anyone). Why would this be any different?
  - adventured 13y ago
    China can and does easily suppress dissent. They love opportunities to jab back at the US regarding human rights issues. That's worth a lot more than the very very very small risk that Snowden presents toward inspiring emulators.
RoboTeddy 13y ago
The graphic in the article is downscaled -- here's the direct link: https://www.scmp.com/sites/default/files/2013/06/14/snowden-extradiction-web.jpg https://www.scmp.com/sites/default/files/2013/06/14/snowden-...
steve19 13y ago
Somewhat disingenuous to suggest swapping sim cards to avoid being tracked. This myth is one that law enforcement love. They just track phones with IMEI numbers.
- alextingle 13y ago
  Because nobody sells phone for cash, right?
  - kissickas 13y ago
    GP still has a valid point, SIM card swapping as mentioned in the article is not track-proof.
    - fnordfnordfnord 13y ago
      Well fine there's cloning a phone, setting a bogus or duplicate IMEI, or simply buying cheap throw-away phones. Here, have a look at a really terribly done video of one electronics market in HK. One of many. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dxTR5X0PIP4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dxTR5X0PIP4
  - pyre 13y ago
    The idea behind "swapping SIMs" to avoid being tracked assumes that the phone itself can't be identified and tracked (regardless of the SIM card in it). Once one of your SIM cards can be identified as belonging to you (maybe you break down and call a relative), it can be linked to the phone. If the phone can be tracked, then all of the other SIM cards that you use with it can be linked together, regardless of the whether or not the original purchase of the phone or SIM cards can be linked to you (cash vs. card).
  - reeses 13y ago
    I think he's referring to the artificial security based on swapping SIMs into the same phone, since both can be tracked. In fact, with appropriate metadata[1], this could poison a number of SIMs and phones if they were ever passed between handsets and/or people. Now I'm imagining the trouble one could cause with a cell-phone recycling bin at Best Buy. [1] Yeah, I know.
Apocryphon 13y ago
I've been thinking of alternative destinations. New Zealand, home of exile Kim Dotcom, could work. But what about Sweden? Aren't they very neutral? Or Switzerland, the nation that's synonymous with neutrality?
- toyg 13y ago
  Are you serious? New Zealand is the land of night-raids on Kim Dotcom's home to please American corporations -- not exactly a prime candidate. Sweden is the country currently responsible for Assange's plight. Switzerland, as I said elsewhere, is now an EU state in all but name, and their security services are laughable anyway. What Snowden needs is not "neutrality" in a Cold-War sense. Strictly speaking, no government will ever defend the ideas he's fighting for; he can only choose the lesser evil, the place where he gets the most leverage out of his stance (i.e. most non-US-friendly nations) without losing his rights (i.e. most democratically-run nations with a respectable legal system). There's only a handful of countries in this peculiar intersection, and HK is definitely one of them.
  - pyre 13y ago
    > New Zealand is the land of night-raids on Kim > Dotcom's home to please American corporations > -- not exactly a prime candidate. That has caused a bunch of blow-back in NZ though. I'd say it's up in the air as to whether or not another such incident will occur.
    - toyg 13y ago
      Yes, but I don't see NZ ever abandoning their strategic intelligence alliance with US and UK (which produced, among other things, the original Echelon). Blowback all you want, Snowden would still be sent straight to Washington.
      - throwawayyyyyy 13y ago
        new zealand gave the big F U to the USA back in the 80s when they refused the USS Buchanan nuclear powered destroyer entry to the port as it violated the nuclear-free legislation.
fspeech 13y ago
A warrant may never even be issued, since if he is arrested Hongkong police will be duty bound to turn over anything of national security interest to Beijing. Yeah it is a pretty sharp move.
_k 13y ago
My guess is someone gave him advice on it because at first sight Hong Kong isn't the most obvious choice at all. The infographic explains how it all works but if someone had asked me something like that, I wouldn't even be able to answer it for my own country.
- toyg 13y ago
  It's 2013, we have the internets, 24/7 news and no end of sources on everything related to politics of any country on the planet. If something you don't know becomes vital to a project you're planning, you fire up Google every day for a few hours and learn what's going on. It's clear he didn't leak on a whim: he planned it over a certain period of time and, being a smart fellow, had all the time in the world to read up on the fine points of US international diplomacy, which would significantly narrow down his research pool on extradition systems.
skue 13y ago
There is another big reason why Snowden may have chosen HK. A few months ago the HK high court ruled that the process for applying for asylum needs overhaul, and until that happens all extradition proceedings for asylum seekers are on hold. So Snowden simply needs to apply for asylum in HK to significantly delay things: http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/asia-pacific/china/130610/why-edward-snowden-hong-kong-extradition-asylum http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/asia-pacific... I haven't seen much coverage of this in the US press, aside from Slate & CSM. The rest of the media seems more interested in Snowden's girlfriend and scholastic record instead (sigh).
- akirk 13y ago
  I was about to ask, how he would deal with staying, as you can't simply choose a country but must conform to its visa regulations. He might be there as a tourist for now but I would think that cannot do so forever.
STRML 13y ago
I live in Hong Kong, and can verify that it is absolutely a technologist's paradise and an extremely easy place to move around in. Phones are incredibly cheap; the cheapest functional Android knockoff smartphones will run you about $50-80 (all prices in USD for simplicity), maybe less if you get it in Kowloon. "Burner"-style phones can be as low as $8. SIM cards are essentially free (usually about $8-10 deposit on the card) and minutes are as lower than $0.01 each[1]. Data is about $5/GB prepaid. All cash, no credit cards, no checks. You don't even have to give them your name. Coverage is completely universal here because the density is absurd. It's a cell phone carrier's dream; one tower can potentially reach nearly a million people. Taxi drivers here regularly have half a dozen cell phones in their cars. One for personal use, one for work, one for less savory work... who knows, there is always a lot going on, especially in relation to gambling. Additionally, the broadband is great (and cheap) - I regularly get as much as 250mbps or more to the US from my home connection. I can say with confidence that I browse US sites more quickly from here than I could from my home connection when I lived in the states. The ping is of course higher but it is not as bad as you'd think (150-180ms). There are great technology centers like Cyberport[2] that will rent you a desk or tiny office with gigabit internet for very little money. It is easy to disappear in HK because it is so dense. While housing is not cheap it is available and some landlords will take cash. Being white earns you stares here, it is well known that the Chinese suffer from the same problem we do; it is difficult to tell white people apart, much like we may find it difficult to tell some ethnic Chinese apart. I am speculating but it could be used to his advantage: with a hairstyle change and contact lenses it would be difficult for a US citizen to identify Snowden, going only on the news photos. It would be even harder for a foreigner. That is, if the novelty of seeing a young nerdy white man doesn't arouse suspicion alone. Members of the expat community have been setting up rallies for Snowden and they have been getting decent attendance. The South China Morning Post has been very favorable in their framing of his actions. I think the populace here is very sympathetic to his plight. As for the legal system, I can't comment; I just work here, man. [1] Keep in mind, prices are in HKD - 1USD = 7.76 HKD. http://one2free.hkcsl.com/jsp/prepaid_sim_card/o2f_local_prepaid_sim/charges/charges.jsp http://one2free.hkcsl.com/jsp/prepaid_sim_card/o2f_local_pre... [2] http://www.cyberport.hk/en http://www.cyberport.hk/en
- pyre 13y ago
rdl 13y ago
I actually don't think Hong Kong was a great choice, as it brings up the whole question of foreign intelligence service involvement. He absolutely should have picked a common law jurisdiction (like Hong Kong), and probably not US/UK/Canada, but NZ would have worked pretty well. He's not "in hiding" from the intelligence services. I suspect even second tier countries know where he is.
- toyg 13y ago
  I'm sure Kim Dotcom thought his move to NZ had "worked pretty well".
  - fnordfnordfnord 13y ago
    It did. It wasn't without it's hiccups. But, there he is in NZ still doing two things that he apparently loves to do, trolling and making money.
    - toyg 13y ago
      He trolls Hollywood interests, Snowden is effectively trolling the whole US government; the difference is of some importance. NZ was in the original Echelon program, in terms of intelligence they fall squarely in line with GCHQ and friends. It's really one of the worst locations he could choose, right after the US and Britain.
      - fnordfnordfnord 13y ago
        I agree that Snowden is better off in HK, I was just responding to the comment WRT Kim Dotcom.
      - rdl 13y ago
        NZ is better than US, UK, Canada, or AU.
      - jahmed 13y ago
        Hong Kong also does not have a CIA/NSA/GCHQ/MI-6/MSS type agency. Your statement make me think Snowden saw the level of cooperation on the intel side and picked someone without a horse in the race.
adventured 13y ago
"Nobody stands to win by taking decisive action on Snowden, so my guess, based on years of living in Hong Kong, is that both Beijing and Hong Kong will avoid doing so, which heightens the possiblity of a long, long court process." That depends on how badly the US wants him. If they want him badly enough, they'll buy him from China with an offering big enough to create a winner. That would be trivial for the US to do - they could have Snowden back in a few days - but the price might be very high.
- rhizome 13y ago
  Like movies, do you?
  - adventured 13y ago
    Taiwan Would that do? Yep, I think it would. Perhaps even just the substantial delay of new arms sales. It's meant as a black and white example, but it proves my point. There are countless things the US could give China that are worth a lot more to China than Snowden is. Your comment is comical in its lack of realism. And that's comical because you're alluding to me being the unrealistic one. In reality, politics is a game of buying or trading favors. It's that simple, and it works that way locally or internationally.
    - rhizome 13y ago
      If it's that simple, you'll have no trouble coming up with historical examples of the mechanism you describe having operated with the simplicity you assert.
      - scarmig 13y ago
        http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Percentages_agreement http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Percentages_agreement Or, if that doesn't suit your fancy, any of the WWII dealings among the Allies about how things would be divied up.
    - jessaustin 13y ago
rld 13y ago
> Budding spies and others of a paranoid nature can buy a couple of those SIM cards to swap in and out of their (unlocked) phones for $10 in any 7-11, no registration, no questions asked (try doing that in India or Argentina!) Argentine here, you can buy SIM cards literally everywhere. Vendors will even sell them to you on trains.
- contingencies 13y ago
  Logging on to GSM your phone uploads its IMEI ('phone serial number') with the SIM card identifier or IMSI ('sim ID'). So if you switch, you are still tracked. Budding spies will learn their tech before putting their ass on the line.
  - sporkologist 13y ago
    As mentioned further up these comments, IMEI's can be forged, and phones produced "off-hours" in the factories often have IMEI's consisting of all 0's or all 1's. I gleaned this much just from reading this thread.
    - contingencies 13y ago
      Sure. Also, according to recent quotes from Snowden, this is the primary mobile communciations key the NSA maintain records and search by... not phone number.
frozenport 13y ago
Especially if he is a Chinese spy. Because bragging about Hong Kong freedom's sounds like a cold war farce.
- MichaelLouis 13y ago
  I thought that I was the only person that considered that a possibility.
avn2109 13y ago
Is there any hard evidence that ES is actually in Hong Kong? It seems to be widely accepted that he is, though I'm not familiar with the evidence in favor of this claim.
jcoder 13y ago
The commentary about swapping SIMs and fast 'net puzzles me. If someone in Snowden's position wants to avoid tracking, given the leaked information that is the very reason he is wanted, I would think the safest tactic is to eschew personal devices and 'net usage entirely.
tokenadult 13y ago
I think Snowden didn't have a lot of choices of places to fly to from Hawaii, where he was last based. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=5854562 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=5854562 Some of the rationales for being in Hong Kong we see attributed to interview statements by him sound like statements by a person who knows a lot less about east Asia than he thinks he knows. In the six years that I lived in east Asia, all spent there after first learning the history, language, and culture of China thoroughly by university studies and independent reading and participation in foreign student clubs before going over, I grew quite tired of instant experts on Asia who can't even speak any local language. Snowden made the move he could make when he decided to leave his employment at Booz Allen Hamilton, but it's not clear that his move was "brilliant" or even very thought out at all.
- einhverfr 13y ago
  I want to explain why I think you are wrong in terms of it being thought out. I think it was very carefully thought out and it fit into his plans very well. Whether it was "brilliant" or not I suppose depends on what you think of the game he is playing. If you carefully look at Snowden's actions and his statements to various press establishments, his entire strategy is based on playing one group off another. He got the Washington Post to publish a story on Prism by getting the Guardian to run one on the Verizon warrants, for example. If you look carefully he is doing the same thing regarding Hong Kong. 1. He went to Hong Kong and immediately made provocative statements about the commitment of the special administrative province to the rule of law and to political dissent. This does not mean he believes that this is the nature of things. What these statements immediately did was put the image of Hong Kong's independence at risk of Bejing comes in too forcefully. 2. He then makes a number of statements about US intelligence activity which, quite frankly, everyone would probably assume to be the case anyway (hacking Chinese internet backbones etc). This creates a US vs China dynamic and shows that he can be a danger to the US if the US does not back off. In essence what he has done has been tailored around Hong Kong specifically. He has chosen somewhere to make a stand that fits his strategy, nothing more and nothing less.
  - Sven7 13y ago
nikcub 13y ago
You can also sneak out of Hong Kong easily, and it is an hour ferry ride a to Macau or Guangzhou or a bus or taxi ride to Shenzen. Hong Kong has very loose exit visa policies on western passports. You can jump on a plane to some destinations with your passport only being checked at checkin (which is of the ticket). It is very simple to get to any number of ~50 countries in the space of hours and not having your identity checked until you land. Private banking in Hong Kong means he can have money sent to him and he can spend money without worrying about who finds out who supports him. He is also likely to find work, since there is a lot of English speaking expat work in the country especially in the IT industry. I'm unsure if he has a path to citizenship, a path to residency is easy but I think the only way he could swap his passport is if he works out an entire 4 or 5 year residency or go citizenship via asylum.
- matthewrudy 13y ago
  This isn't true. At the airport there is a passport check after security. At Hung Hom train station the same. At all the China land borders things are pretty strict. Most smugglers go through Sha Tau Kok in the north east, but you need a permit to even enter that area.
  - agilebyte 13y ago
    Can one take a swim/use an inflatable at night undetected?
Stupendous 13y ago
I live in Hong Kong too (about 20 minutes walk from the Mira where Snowden was allegedly staying), and his stated reasons of coming here due to the country's commitment to free speech and political dissent are baffling and misguided. When compared to China, Hong Kong seems free but the reality is very different. Start with the South China Morning Post, the main English language newspaper here which has been covering this story extensively. The current editor, Wang Xiangwei, joined in 2011, is a member of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Congress, and has been criticized for self-censorship multiple times since taking over. Then you have the political system here, where people can vote in local elections but not in the main election that actually decides the Chief Executive (President). The current CE, CY Leung, was dogged by accusations that he was a Communist Party member throughout the election period. These accusations were not without merit given his political history (appointed to a prominent committee at a young age, a position traditionally occupied by party members), and these issues have not died down since he's taken office. It makes no sense for Snowden to have come to HK for its political freedom. Neither is this city a hotbed for political dissent. The Occupy movement here was largely ineffective (there were often more homeless people than protestors at the camp), and power here is concentrated in the elite (HK has one of the highest Gini coefficients in the world). He came here because here he can leverage China vs the US. Any talk of political freedom or appreciating the culture is pure fluff.
- meric 13y ago
  There is a lot of perceived political freedom from people outside of Hong Kong (both people in US as well as in China - why else would Chinese dissenters travel to Hong Kong to protest?). By declaring Hong Kong has political freedom, China is forced to defend that image, both domestically and internationally. I am from Hong Kong, so I know what you're talking about, but I'm currently living outside of Hong Kong, so I know what foreigners' perspective of Hong Kong is, too.
- Spooky23 13y ago
  I don't know if it makes sense or not, but the fact is that Mr. Snowden appears to not be in custody at the moment. So that says something.
intelliot 13y ago
Ron Paul has specifically mentioned two places as having more liberty (in certain ways) than the US: Switzerland and Hong Kong.
kragen 13y ago
Author says, "Budding spies and others of a paranoid nature can buy a couple of those SIM cards to swap in and out of their (unlocked) phones for $10 in any 7-11, no registration, no questions asked (try doing that in India or Argentina!)" I don't live in India, but I do live in Argentina, and there are guys selling SIM cards on the subway and outside the train stations for, I think, AR$5, which is about US$0.76. No registration, no questions asked. If you instead go to a cellphone store, not only do you need to register, but they want ID. I suspect that India is porous enough that there are similar holes in whatever controls they have to require registration. I don't get 250Mbps in my house though; maybe 1Mbps to the US. And the murder rate is a little higher than in the US.
- kragen 13y ago
  Update: I asked the blind guy selling SIMs on the subway today how much they cost. The price has gone up to AR$10, which is currently about US$1.20.
sandGorgon 13y ago
I dont get it - every one of those factors is present in India as well (with a few compromises on bandwidth I'll admit). If the article makes a case that in Hong Kong people can take to the streets, it so happens that they did in Delhi [1]. Hell, India has a superior record of amnesty than most other countries [2]. Plus, the tech work scene is undoubtedly better in India as well as .... um... not being 100% undemocratic. I personally am of the opinion that one of the big reasons could be that the pay is potentially better in Hong Kong - especially for someone from Booz Allen. [1] http://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/Opinion/2013/0315/Reactions-to-Steubenville-Ohio-and-India-gang-rapes-show-India-isn-t-so-backward http://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/Opinion/2013/0315/Reacti... [2] http://www.unhcr.org/50001ec69.html http://www.unhcr.org/50001ec69.html
- stbtrax 13y ago
  Is there access to uninterrupted electricity?
- MrJagil 13y ago
  He visited HK with his girlfriend, so perhaps the simple truths is (beyond all the reasons listed in the article) that he had a personal relationship with the place. Logic and planning is great, but humans are quite affective, a notion that shouldn't be discarded. By choosing HK, he "kinda" knew what he was getting into. Comfort.
ericfong 13y ago
Born in Hong Kong. Personally don't think Hong Kong is that safe and has such freedom. But may be good for his case. As China like to see him exists...
gboone42 13y ago
This still doesn't explain why he didn't choose a country with no possibility of extradition like, uh, any of these: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extradition_law_in_the_United_States#Countries_with_diplomatic_relations_but_no_extradition_treaty http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extradition_law_in_the_United_S... They may not be technological paradises, but it's pretty hard (nearly impossible) to be extradited to the US from any of them.
- rdouble 13y ago
  He did. China is on that list. Hong Kong is China.
  - gboone42 13y ago
    Right, it is but it isn't. The whole point of the piece is that because of HK's complicated relationship with China it makes extradition possible, just very hard. I guess my point is, why not Shanghai? I'm sure the PRC would love the opportunity to grand asylum to an Internet freedom activist.
    - rdouble 13y ago
      My opinion is that he didn't really think it through that far, but that seems to be an unpopular thing to say on HN.
dnr 13y ago
The question I've been wondering about is how he'll get money to live on. Presumably it won't be long before the US will freeze his bank accounts, if they haven't already. Has he set up offshore bank accounts in advance? Won't they get frozen too? Is he planning on working in HK? He probably doesn't have a visa that allows working, and switching visas usually requires leaving the country. He's too well-known now to work under the table. Did he carry huge amounts of cash?

527 points by teawithcarl 13y ago

reiichiroh 13y ago

It's strange the Falun Gong paper Epoch Times hasn't written more about this case.

deleted 13y ago

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dfc 13y ago

Since we lack space and spend lots of time cooped up in small rooms, we have taken to the virtual world like ducks to water Sounds awesome, you have to love a lack of options.

gruseom 13y ago

This is by far the most informative [edit: if speculative] article I've read on Snowden's choice of Hong Kong, which has been the most puzzling detail of the whole story. If true, it explains a lot, not just about why he chose Hong Kong but also about his subsequent interview with the press there. Can HNers who know Hong Kong shed light on how plausible it is? It's striking how one obscure blog post can be more valuable than all the media speculation on this question (that I've seen) put together. That doesn't make its interpretation true, of course. But the alternate explanation that was going through my head seems a bit movie-esque by comparison.

glurgh 13y ago
It's striking how one obscure blog post can be more valuable than all the media speculation on this question (that I've seen) put together. The infographic is taken from the South China Morning Post, a mainstream media outlet. It's followed by some verbiage about the speed of the Hong Kong judiciary and then a mention of a murder trial (actually, two trials) that's gone on for nearly 10 years - but that's a murder trial, not an extradition proceeding. This is just as speculative as anything else but from what little we've learned about Snowden, he just doesn't strike me as some fiendishly clever schemer. If I had to guess, I'd say he went to Hong Kong because he has an interest in Chinese language and culture and went to the most comfortable place in China that's China-but-not-quite.
- deleted 13y ago
  [deleted]
- AVTizzle 13y ago
  I can't tell if you're being sarcastic. I don't imagine an "interest in Chinese language and culture" would have anything to do with this decision.
  - wavefunction 13y ago
    He mentioned picking up Mandarin in one of his Ars posts, I think. Not "fiendishly" clever, just apparently more clever than the folks running our intelligence services.
    - OstiaAntica 13y ago
      Mandarin is not widely spoken in Hong Kong-- locals speak Cantonese and Mandarin was not taught in school while HK was under British rule.
      - eru 13y ago
        Yes, but lots of people speak Mandarin now, either for doing business with the PRC or because they are PRC immigrants.
      - wavefunction 13y ago
        Certainly I know this about Cantonese, but I'm just relating to you what I had read.
    - tokenadult 13y ago
      Snowden is not proficient in Chinese, no way. (I am, by test.) As Confucius said, in one of his most famous take-downs, "始吾於人也、聽其言而信其行、今吾於人也、聽其言而觀其行。At first in dealing with people, I would hear their words and trust their deeds, but now my way of dealing with people is to hear their words and observe their deeds." We'll see what appears about his planning and his view toward China and a lot of other things about him as he continues interaction with news media and the governmental authorities of various governments.
fnordfnordfnord 13y ago
Not a resident, but I have spent some time there. Phone service is indeed cheap. SIM cards are bought at every kind of venue right on down to carts on the street. No ID needed, no contract. You give money, you get SIM card with nn minutes. Handsets are cheap too, really cheap, like throw away cheap. I hadn't thought about that from a signals intelligence perspective, but I bet that fact combined with the density of people would make it quite challenging to find his signal from among the others. Speaking of people density, guaranteed, no drone strikes in HK. Also, probably no movie-style snatch and grabs in HK. Aside from the tension that would cause in US/China foreign affairs, traffic would prevent that from happening most hours of the day. It would definitely not go unnoticed.
- robryan 13y ago
  Yeah, I was also amazed at how good the 3g was on a random sim I bought at the airport. Works great in the metro too which is awesome coming from Melbourne and having no connectivity between stations in our metro.
joonix 13y ago
I haven't seen any articles discuss a major issue: his immigration status. If he's on a visitor/business visa he likely only has 6-12 months in the country. If he's there as a tourist, 90 days. If he overstays his visa, he can be arrested and deported.
- fnordfnordfnord 13y ago
  Day trip to Macau might fix that. I bet he can get a special accommodation though.
  - reedlaw 13y ago
    He might face extradition at the border, depending on how Macau-China-US relations work.
    - fnordfnordfnord 13y ago
      Macau is a Special Administrative Region, of the PRC just as HK is. An entry/exit is sufficient to reset the timer on your entry visa with the mainland. I'm assuming the same thing works between HK and Macau, but I've never tested it.
- akiselev 13y ago
  By which time he can probably get a Visa somewhere else and rinse and repeat, shuffling between two secure locations and flight paths. Once extradition proceedings have begun, he can no longer be deported. Deportation and removal orders still have to go through the court system though: http://www.hkhrm.org.hk/english/reports/eimrev96.html#Deportation http://www.hkhrm.org.hk/english/reports/eimrev96.html#Deport...
  - cema 13y ago
    shuffling between two secure locations and flight paths That would still be observable and therefore risky.
leephillips 13y ago
"It's striking how one obscure blog post can be more valuable than all the media speculation on this question (that I've seen) put together." Perhaps this still qualifies as striking, but it's becoming rapidly more common, as mainstream journalism becomes ever more predictable and imitative, and individuals with expertise and actual insight, not working for news organizations, stand out as the only voices worth paying attention to.
- Estragon 13y ago
  Yeah, I stopped reading the MSM in 2003 when Juan Cole was blogging about stuff which didn't appear in mainstream sources until months later.
- pvdm 13y ago
  Not to mention they missed the whole subprime mortage crisis and never questioned the weapons of mass destruction ruse for invading Iraq.
- SkyMarshal 13y ago
  Exactly. Blogging allows subject matter experts to easily, cheaply publish, be widely read, and compete for eyeballs with the MSM. There's no way most people who just went to Journalism school can compete with, say, an experienced Constitutional lawyer like Greenwald or Lessig, or hacker like PG or Spolsky, or VC like Fred Wilson etc. But there are some things MSM can still do - good professional journalists can still round up experts and put together a composite of their views. Or they do real investigative journalism that bloggers may not have the resources for, be it Bloomberg suing the Federal Reserve under FOIA [1], or sending reporters to hotspots for first-hand reporting. Personally I think a combination of data journalism and investigative journalism (like WaPo's Top Secret America [2] and Bloomberg's FOIA lawsuit and reporting) are their best way forward. Both require resources most individual bloggers can't provide, and both are real news, real journalism. [1]: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-23/fed-s-once-secret-data-compiled-by-bloomberg-released-to-public.html http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-23/fed-s-once-secret-d... [2]: http://projects.washingtonpost.com/top-secret-america/ http://projects.washingtonpost.com/top-secret-america/

vph 13y ago

Brilliant move, maybe, unless he was manipulated by the Chinese. It is very interesting that the allegation that the NSA has been hacking into Chinese systems came out at the time when the US and China are meeting and Obama is trying to admonish the Chinese on hacking. It would be interesting to explore if Edward Snowden has any handler. And how exactly he chose Hong Kong and decided to reveal that the NSA has been hacking the Chinese.

pilsetnieks 13y ago
The allegation was that they are hacking everyone. And Obama is meeting someone from everywhere every other week.
vidarh 13y ago
It is "very interesting" in the sense that Snowden may have realised that strategically talking to Chinese press and leaking information that would be likely to be looked upon favorably by the Chinese government at this time would be likely to be beneficial to his chances of avoiding extradition in the future. I'm not sure what you are trying to imply - the choice and timing of that particular leak would seem to be a logical choice once he'd chosen somewhere to go.
- vph 13y ago
  If he is afraid of being charged in the US, I would think he wouldn't have done this in the first place. Initially, it is said he did this because he cared about Americans. But by working with the Chinese, he is no longer a patriot in the eyes of many Americans. Overall, it appears like he was manipulated or at least fueled by the Chinese operatives.

spitx 13y ago

CBS' Bob Schieffer on Snowden's junket: "For one thing, I don't remember Martin Luther King, Jr., or Rosa Parks running off and hiding in China. The people who ran the civil-rights movement were willing to break the law and suffer the consequences." "That's a little different than putting the nation's security at risk and running away." "What I see in Edward Snowden is just a narcissistic young man who has decided he is smarter than the rest of us" "I don't know what he is beyond that. But he is no hero. If he has a point — which I'm not sure he does — he would help his cause by voluntarily coming home to face the consequences." Source: Schieffer to Snowden: Come home, face the consequences http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IU5-r6mw6nQ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IU5-r6mw6nQ

deleted 13y ago
[deleted]
onli 13y ago
Useful to know how the enemy is arguing. Sure, the consequences are torture, imprisonment and death. But who wouldn't take those consequences to be a real hero?
- untog 13y ago
  Using phrases like 'the enemy' doesn't really help raise the level of debate.
  - onli 13y ago
    I didn't mean spitx - the comment didn't make clear that this was his position. I doubt Bob Schieffer will read this. You're right though.
- spitx 13y ago
  Did Daniel Ellsberg bolt for a communist nation, sympathetic to his views after releasing the Pentagon papers? No, he turned himself in. Snowden wants all the glory and none of the bruises. If that doesn't demonstrate a lack of selflessness, what does? Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daniel_Ellsberg#Trial_and_mistrial http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daniel_Ellsberg#Trial_and_mistr...

crazygringo 13y ago

I'm curious... is there anything currently preventing him from flying to a further country as well? I'm not aware of there being a warrant out for his arrest or anything yet... What would happen today if he just hopped on the next flight to Iceland or Ecuador or wherever else (or let's just assume nonstop flights)?

pilsetnieks 13y ago
Anywhere except the UK, UK airlines or connecting flights through UK - http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jun/14/dont-fly-edward-snowden-uk-airlines-told http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jun/14/dont-fly-edward-...
anologwintermut 13y ago
Apparently INTERPOL can issue red notices that are not public. So its possible if he tried to leave Hong Kong under his own ID he'd get arrested. I assume he doesn't have a real forged passport. But how hard do they check for leaving Hong Kong? Could he get to Iceland and instead of trying to fool Icelandic passport control, just request asylum?
- XorNot 13y ago
  Pretty hard? China has steep controls on its own citizens leaving China. Hong Kong is now part of China, and probably a favoured way out.
  - pyre 13y ago
    Travel between HK and 'mainland' China regulated, as I understand it. It's possible that China is looking more closely to that border as an escape point than people leaving HK.
    - XorNot 13y ago
      "Closely" is a relative term when it comes to airport. I'd think Chinese intelligence would be paying very close attention to someone who the US wants to arrest within their borders, seeing as how it impacts relations with their biggest trading partner.

jsnk 13y ago

Fourth point about Hong Kong being under China probably has a significant effect that public cannot know about to full extent. It's not a outright conspiracy to believe that there's a largely hidden but real power struggle between US and China. China probably likes the fact that Snowden has brought NSA and US government into public scrutiny and they are probably plotting a way to make the best out of it.

gbog 13y ago
I don't think so. China has so many problems, it's government always preferred the status quo, anything new like this is considered a threat to political stability: imagine if a few Chinese decided to go Snowden way?
- pyre 13y ago
  It can be spun other ways too. Snowden could be heralded as "proof" that China is better than the US. "US citizen flees oppressive government, seeking refuge in China." I'm sure that this incident will also enter the lexicon of North Korea when they try to bring up the bad things that US has/may have done in order to justify their own actions.
  - gbog 13y ago
    Do you think that Chinese are that stupid? They all know their wealthy elite send kids and wife to the US, why would they do that if China was better?
    - pyre 13y ago
      The way that I understand it, a lot of the propaganda that the Chinese see in the media is known to be propaganda (i.e. it's not fooling anyone). Why would this be any different?
- adventured 13y ago
  China can and does easily suppress dissent. They love opportunities to jab back at the US regarding human rights issues. That's worth a lot more than the very very very small risk that Snowden presents toward inspiring emulators.

RoboTeddy 13y ago

The graphic in the article is downscaled -- here's the direct link: https://www.scmp.com/sites/default/files/2013/06/14/snowden-extradiction-web.jpg https://www.scmp.com/sites/default/files/2013/06/14/snowden-...

steve19 13y ago

Somewhat disingenuous to suggest swapping sim cards to avoid being tracked. This myth is one that law enforcement love. They just track phones with IMEI numbers.

alextingle 13y ago
Because nobody sells phone for cash, right?
- kissickas 13y ago
  GP still has a valid point, SIM card swapping as mentioned in the article is not track-proof.
  - fnordfnordfnord 13y ago
    Well fine there's cloning a phone, setting a bogus or duplicate IMEI, or simply buying cheap throw-away phones. Here, have a look at a really terribly done video of one electronics market in HK. One of many. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dxTR5X0PIP4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dxTR5X0PIP4
- pyre 13y ago
  The idea behind "swapping SIMs" to avoid being tracked assumes that the phone itself can't be identified and tracked (regardless of the SIM card in it). Once one of your SIM cards can be identified as belonging to you (maybe you break down and call a relative), it can be linked to the phone. If the phone can be tracked, then all of the other SIM cards that you use with it can be linked together, regardless of the whether or not the original purchase of the phone or SIM cards can be linked to you (cash vs. card).
- reeses 13y ago
  I think he's referring to the artificial security based on swapping SIMs into the same phone, since both can be tracked. In fact, with appropriate metadata[1], this could poison a number of SIMs and phones if they were ever passed between handsets and/or people. Now I'm imagining the trouble one could cause with a cell-phone recycling bin at Best Buy. [1] Yeah, I know.

Apocryphon 13y ago

I've been thinking of alternative destinations. New Zealand, home of exile Kim Dotcom, could work. But what about Sweden? Aren't they very neutral? Or Switzerland, the nation that's synonymous with neutrality?

toyg 13y ago
Are you serious? New Zealand is the land of night-raids on Kim Dotcom's home to please American corporations -- not exactly a prime candidate. Sweden is the country currently responsible for Assange's plight. Switzerland, as I said elsewhere, is now an EU state in all but name, and their security services are laughable anyway. What Snowden needs is not "neutrality" in a Cold-War sense. Strictly speaking, no government will ever defend the ideas he's fighting for; he can only choose the lesser evil, the place where he gets the most leverage out of his stance (i.e. most non-US-friendly nations) without losing his rights (i.e. most democratically-run nations with a respectable legal system). There's only a handful of countries in this peculiar intersection, and HK is definitely one of them.
- pyre 13y ago
  > New Zealand is the land of night-raids on Kim > Dotcom's home to please American corporations > -- not exactly a prime candidate. That has caused a bunch of blow-back in NZ though. I'd say it's up in the air as to whether or not another such incident will occur.
  - toyg 13y ago
    Yes, but I don't see NZ ever abandoning their strategic intelligence alliance with US and UK (which produced, among other things, the original Echelon). Blowback all you want, Snowden would still be sent straight to Washington.
    - throwawayyyyyy 13y ago
      new zealand gave the big F U to the USA back in the 80s when they refused the USS Buchanan nuclear powered destroyer entry to the port as it violated the nuclear-free legislation.

fspeech 13y ago

A warrant may never even be issued, since if he is arrested Hongkong police will be duty bound to turn over anything of national security interest to Beijing. Yeah it is a pretty sharp move.

_k 13y ago

My guess is someone gave him advice on it because at first sight Hong Kong isn't the most obvious choice at all. The infographic explains how it all works but if someone had asked me something like that, I wouldn't even be able to answer it for my own country.

toyg 13y ago
It's 2013, we have the internets, 24/7 news and no end of sources on everything related to politics of any country on the planet. If something you don't know becomes vital to a project you're planning, you fire up Google every day for a few hours and learn what's going on. It's clear he didn't leak on a whim: he planned it over a certain period of time and, being a smart fellow, had all the time in the world to read up on the fine points of US international diplomacy, which would significantly narrow down his research pool on extradition systems.

skue 13y ago

There is another big reason why Snowden may have chosen HK. A few months ago the HK high court ruled that the process for applying for asylum needs overhaul, and until that happens all extradition proceedings for asylum seekers are on hold. So Snowden simply needs to apply for asylum in HK to significantly delay things: http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/asia-pacific/china/130610/why-edward-snowden-hong-kong-extradition-asylum http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/asia-pacific... I haven't seen much coverage of this in the US press, aside from Slate & CSM. The rest of the media seems more interested in Snowden's girlfriend and scholastic record instead (sigh).

akirk 13y ago
I was about to ask, how he would deal with staying, as you can't simply choose a country but must conform to its visa regulations. He might be there as a tourist for now but I would think that cannot do so forever.

STRML 13y ago

I live in Hong Kong, and can verify that it is absolutely a technologist's paradise and an extremely easy place to move around in. Phones are incredibly cheap; the cheapest functional Android knockoff smartphones will run you about $50-80 (all prices in USD for simplicity), maybe less if you get it in Kowloon. "Burner"-style phones can be as low as $8. SIM cards are essentially free (usually about $8-10 deposit on the card) and minutes are as lower than $0.01 each[1]. Data is about $5/GB prepaid. All cash, no credit cards, no checks. You don't even have to give them your name. Coverage is completely universal here because the density is absurd. It's a cell phone carrier's dream; one tower can potentially reach nearly a million people. Taxi drivers here regularly have half a dozen cell phones in their cars. One for personal use, one for work, one for less savory work... who knows, there is always a lot going on, especially in relation to gambling. Additionally, the broadband is great (and cheap) - I regularly get as much as 250mbps or more to the US from my home connection. I can say with confidence that I browse US sites more quickly from here than I could from my home connection when I lived in the states. The ping is of course higher but it is not as bad as you'd think (150-180ms). There are great technology centers like Cyberport[2] that will rent you a desk or tiny office with gigabit internet for very little money. It is easy to disappear in HK because it is so dense. While housing is not cheap it is available and some landlords will take cash. Being white earns you stares here, it is well known that the Chinese suffer from the same problem we do; it is difficult to tell white people apart, much like we may find it difficult to tell some ethnic Chinese apart. I am speculating but it could be used to his advantage: with a hairstyle change and contact lenses it would be difficult for a US citizen to identify Snowden, going only on the news photos. It would be even harder for a foreigner. That is, if the novelty of seeing a young nerdy white man doesn't arouse suspicion alone. Members of the expat community have been setting up rallies for Snowden and they have been getting decent attendance. The South China Morning Post has been very favorable in their framing of his actions. I think the populace here is very sympathetic to his plight. As for the legal system, I can't comment; I just work here, man. [1] Keep in mind, prices are in HKD - 1USD = 7.76 HKD. http://one2free.hkcsl.com/jsp/prepaid_sim_card/o2f_local_prepaid_sim/charges/charges.jsp http://one2free.hkcsl.com/jsp/prepaid_sim_card/o2f_local_pre... [2] http://www.cyberport.hk/en http://www.cyberport.hk/en

pyre 13y ago

rdl 13y ago

I actually don't think Hong Kong was a great choice, as it brings up the whole question of foreign intelligence service involvement. He absolutely should have picked a common law jurisdiction (like Hong Kong), and probably not US/UK/Canada, but NZ would have worked pretty well. He's not "in hiding" from the intelligence services. I suspect even second tier countries know where he is.

toyg 13y ago
I'm sure Kim Dotcom thought his move to NZ had "worked pretty well".
- fnordfnordfnord 13y ago
  It did. It wasn't without it's hiccups. But, there he is in NZ still doing two things that he apparently loves to do, trolling and making money.
  - toyg 13y ago
    He trolls Hollywood interests, Snowden is effectively trolling the whole US government; the difference is of some importance. NZ was in the original Echelon program, in terms of intelligence they fall squarely in line with GCHQ and friends. It's really one of the worst locations he could choose, right after the US and Britain.
    - fnordfnordfnord 13y ago
      I agree that Snowden is better off in HK, I was just responding to the comment WRT Kim Dotcom.
    - rdl 13y ago
      NZ is better than US, UK, Canada, or AU.
    - jahmed 13y ago
      Hong Kong also does not have a CIA/NSA/GCHQ/MI-6/MSS type agency. Your statement make me think Snowden saw the level of cooperation on the intel side and picked someone without a horse in the race.

adventured 13y ago

"Nobody stands to win by taking decisive action on Snowden, so my guess, based on years of living in Hong Kong, is that both Beijing and Hong Kong will avoid doing so, which heightens the possiblity of a long, long court process." That depends on how badly the US wants him. If they want him badly enough, they'll buy him from China with an offering big enough to create a winner. That would be trivial for the US to do - they could have Snowden back in a few days - but the price might be very high.

rhizome 13y ago
Like movies, do you?
- adventured 13y ago
  Taiwan Would that do? Yep, I think it would. Perhaps even just the substantial delay of new arms sales. It's meant as a black and white example, but it proves my point. There are countless things the US could give China that are worth a lot more to China than Snowden is. Your comment is comical in its lack of realism. And that's comical because you're alluding to me being the unrealistic one. In reality, politics is a game of buying or trading favors. It's that simple, and it works that way locally or internationally.
  - rhizome 13y ago
    If it's that simple, you'll have no trouble coming up with historical examples of the mechanism you describe having operated with the simplicity you assert.
    - scarmig 13y ago
      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Percentages_agreement http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Percentages_agreement Or, if that doesn't suit your fancy, any of the WWII dealings among the Allies about how things would be divied up.
  - jessaustin 13y ago

rld 13y ago

> Budding spies and others of a paranoid nature can buy a couple of those SIM cards to swap in and out of their (unlocked) phones for $10 in any 7-11, no registration, no questions asked (try doing that in India or Argentina!) Argentine here, you can buy SIM cards literally everywhere. Vendors will even sell them to you on trains.

contingencies 13y ago
Logging on to GSM your phone uploads its IMEI ('phone serial number') with the SIM card identifier or IMSI ('sim ID'). So if you switch, you are still tracked. Budding spies will learn their tech before putting their ass on the line.
- sporkologist 13y ago
  As mentioned further up these comments, IMEI's can be forged, and phones produced "off-hours" in the factories often have IMEI's consisting of all 0's or all 1's. I gleaned this much just from reading this thread.
  - contingencies 13y ago
    Sure. Also, according to recent quotes from Snowden, this is the primary mobile communciations key the NSA maintain records and search by... not phone number.

frozenport 13y ago

Especially if he is a Chinese spy. Because bragging about Hong Kong freedom's sounds like a cold war farce.

MichaelLouis 13y ago
I thought that I was the only person that considered that a possibility.

avn2109 13y ago

Is there any hard evidence that ES is actually in Hong Kong? It seems to be widely accepted that he is, though I'm not familiar with the evidence in favor of this claim.

jcoder 13y ago

The commentary about swapping SIMs and fast 'net puzzles me. If someone in Snowden's position wants to avoid tracking, given the leaked information that is the very reason he is wanted, I would think the safest tactic is to eschew personal devices and 'net usage entirely.

tokenadult 13y ago

I think Snowden didn't have a lot of choices of places to fly to from Hawaii, where he was last based. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=5854562 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=5854562 Some of the rationales for being in Hong Kong we see attributed to interview statements by him sound like statements by a person who knows a lot less about east Asia than he thinks he knows. In the six years that I lived in east Asia, all spent there after first learning the history, language, and culture of China thoroughly by university studies and independent reading and participation in foreign student clubs before going over, I grew quite tired of instant experts on Asia who can't even speak any local language. Snowden made the move he could make when he decided to leave his employment at Booz Allen Hamilton, but it's not clear that his move was "brilliant" or even very thought out at all.

einhverfr 13y ago
I want to explain why I think you are wrong in terms of it being thought out. I think it was very carefully thought out and it fit into his plans very well. Whether it was "brilliant" or not I suppose depends on what you think of the game he is playing. If you carefully look at Snowden's actions and his statements to various press establishments, his entire strategy is based on playing one group off another. He got the Washington Post to publish a story on Prism by getting the Guardian to run one on the Verizon warrants, for example. If you look carefully he is doing the same thing regarding Hong Kong. 1. He went to Hong Kong and immediately made provocative statements about the commitment of the special administrative province to the rule of law and to political dissent. This does not mean he believes that this is the nature of things. What these statements immediately did was put the image of Hong Kong's independence at risk of Bejing comes in too forcefully. 2. He then makes a number of statements about US intelligence activity which, quite frankly, everyone would probably assume to be the case anyway (hacking Chinese internet backbones etc). This creates a US vs China dynamic and shows that he can be a danger to the US if the US does not back off. In essence what he has done has been tailored around Hong Kong specifically. He has chosen somewhere to make a stand that fits his strategy, nothing more and nothing less.
- Sven7 13y ago

nikcub 13y ago

You can also sneak out of Hong Kong easily, and it is an hour ferry ride a to Macau or Guangzhou or a bus or taxi ride to Shenzen. Hong Kong has very loose exit visa policies on western passports. You can jump on a plane to some destinations with your passport only being checked at checkin (which is of the ticket). It is very simple to get to any number of ~50 countries in the space of hours and not having your identity checked until you land. Private banking in Hong Kong means he can have money sent to him and he can spend money without worrying about who finds out who supports him. He is also likely to find work, since there is a lot of English speaking expat work in the country especially in the IT industry. I'm unsure if he has a path to citizenship, a path to residency is easy but I think the only way he could swap his passport is if he works out an entire 4 or 5 year residency or go citizenship via asylum.

matthewrudy 13y ago
This isn't true. At the airport there is a passport check after security. At Hung Hom train station the same. At all the China land borders things are pretty strict. Most smugglers go through Sha Tau Kok in the north east, but you need a permit to even enter that area.
- agilebyte 13y ago
  Can one take a swim/use an inflatable at night undetected?

Stupendous 13y ago

I live in Hong Kong too (about 20 minutes walk from the Mira where Snowden was allegedly staying), and his stated reasons of coming here due to the country's commitment to free speech and political dissent are baffling and misguided. When compared to China, Hong Kong seems free but the reality is very different. Start with the South China Morning Post, the main English language newspaper here which has been covering this story extensively. The current editor, Wang Xiangwei, joined in 2011, is a member of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Congress, and has been criticized for self-censorship multiple times since taking over. Then you have the political system here, where people can vote in local elections but not in the main election that actually decides the Chief Executive (President). The current CE, CY Leung, was dogged by accusations that he was a Communist Party member throughout the election period. These accusations were not without merit given his political history (appointed to a prominent committee at a young age, a position traditionally occupied by party members), and these issues have not died down since he's taken office. It makes no sense for Snowden to have come to HK for its political freedom. Neither is this city a hotbed for political dissent. The Occupy movement here was largely ineffective (there were often more homeless people than protestors at the camp), and power here is concentrated in the elite (HK has one of the highest Gini coefficients in the world). He came here because here he can leverage China vs the US. Any talk of political freedom or appreciating the culture is pure fluff.

meric 13y ago
There is a lot of perceived political freedom from people outside of Hong Kong (both people in US as well as in China - why else would Chinese dissenters travel to Hong Kong to protest?). By declaring Hong Kong has political freedom, China is forced to defend that image, both domestically and internationally. I am from Hong Kong, so I know what you're talking about, but I'm currently living outside of Hong Kong, so I know what foreigners' perspective of Hong Kong is, too.
Spooky23 13y ago
I don't know if it makes sense or not, but the fact is that Mr. Snowden appears to not be in custody at the moment. So that says something.

intelliot 13y ago

Ron Paul has specifically mentioned two places as having more liberty (in certain ways) than the US: Switzerland and Hong Kong.

kragen 13y ago

Author says, "Budding spies and others of a paranoid nature can buy a couple of those SIM cards to swap in and out of their (unlocked) phones for $10 in any 7-11, no registration, no questions asked (try doing that in India or Argentina!)" I don't live in India, but I do live in Argentina, and there are guys selling SIM cards on the subway and outside the train stations for, I think, AR$5, which is about US$0.76. No registration, no questions asked. If you instead go to a cellphone store, not only do you need to register, but they want ID. I suspect that India is porous enough that there are similar holes in whatever controls they have to require registration. I don't get 250Mbps in my house though; maybe 1Mbps to the US. And the murder rate is a little higher than in the US.

kragen 13y ago
Update: I asked the blind guy selling SIMs on the subway today how much they cost. The price has gone up to AR$10, which is currently about US$1.20.

sandGorgon 13y ago

I dont get it - every one of those factors is present in India as well (with a few compromises on bandwidth I'll admit). If the article makes a case that in Hong Kong people can take to the streets, it so happens that they did in Delhi [1]. Hell, India has a superior record of amnesty than most other countries [2]. Plus, the tech work scene is undoubtedly better in India as well as .... um... not being 100% undemocratic. I personally am of the opinion that one of the big reasons could be that the pay is potentially better in Hong Kong - especially for someone from Booz Allen. [1] http://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/Opinion/2013/0315/Reactions-to-Steubenville-Ohio-and-India-gang-rapes-show-India-isn-t-so-backward http://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/Opinion/2013/0315/Reacti... [2] http://www.unhcr.org/50001ec69.html http://www.unhcr.org/50001ec69.html

stbtrax 13y ago
Is there access to uninterrupted electricity?
MrJagil 13y ago
He visited HK with his girlfriend, so perhaps the simple truths is (beyond all the reasons listed in the article) that he had a personal relationship with the place. Logic and planning is great, but humans are quite affective, a notion that shouldn't be discarded. By choosing HK, he "kinda" knew what he was getting into. Comfort.

ericfong 13y ago

Born in Hong Kong. Personally don't think Hong Kong is that safe and has such freedom. But may be good for his case. As China like to see him exists...

gboone42 13y ago

This still doesn't explain why he didn't choose a country with no possibility of extradition like, uh, any of these: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extradition_law_in_the_United_States#Countries_with_diplomatic_relations_but_no_extradition_treaty http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extradition_law_in_the_United_S... They may not be technological paradises, but it's pretty hard (nearly impossible) to be extradited to the US from any of them.

rdouble 13y ago
He did. China is on that list. Hong Kong is China.
- gboone42 13y ago
  Right, it is but it isn't. The whole point of the piece is that because of HK's complicated relationship with China it makes extradition possible, just very hard. I guess my point is, why not Shanghai? I'm sure the PRC would love the opportunity to grand asylum to an Internet freedom activist.
  - rdouble 13y ago
    My opinion is that he didn't really think it through that far, but that seems to be an unpopular thing to say on HN.

dnr 13y ago

The question I've been wondering about is how he'll get money to live on. Presumably it won't be long before the US will freeze his bank accounts, if they haven't already. Has he set up offshore bank accounts in advance? Won't they get frozen too? Is he planning on working in HK? He probably doesn't have a visa that allows working, and switching visas usually requires leaving the country. He's too well-known now to work under the table. Did he carry huge amounts of cash?