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Android is the new Blackberry/Nokia. Lots of "worthless" market share. Apple earns more revenue selling accessories than Google earns with Android. "Google-Ora

Android is the new Blackberry/Nokia. Lots of "worthless" market share. Apple earns more revenue selling accessories than Google earns with Android. "Google-Oracle trial: Android revenues revealed" http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2012/apr/26/google-documents-search-revenue http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2012/apr/26/google-docu... "..after the costs of sales, marketing, engineering, product management and legal expenses were taken into account, the overall Android division was not expected to become profitable until 2011, by which time it was forecast to generate nearly $500m in adverts." "Apple's iTunes & accessory sales now greater than every other phone vendor but Samsung" http://appleinsider.com/articles/13/02/11/apples-itunes-accessory-sales-now-greater-than-every-other-phone-vendor-but-samsung http://appleinsider.com/articles/13/02/11/apples-itunes-acce... http://appleinsider.com/articles/13/01/28/apple-now-collecting-twice-as-much-from-itunes-software-services-as-from-ipod-sales http://appleinsider.com/articles/13/01/28/apple-now-collecti... "...For all of fiscal 2011, Apple is now noting that it actually collected...$4.47 billion from accessory sales. "

adventured 13y ago
I would wager that within two years Samsung will be making more money on smart phones than Apple. Apple's profits are going backwards now, while Samsung is growing very quickly. I believe that's a trend that will continue. Microsoft earns a lot more selling Windows and Windows server and surrounding products than all of the Linux vendors make supporting Linux combined (Redhat makes a mere $100m a year in profit for example). Does that inherently imply anything about Linux? No. What you're talking about is today (regarding Apple's profits). What I'm interested in is the trend of Android taking most of the market and what that'll mean in five years for Apple and the Android vendors. What it'll mean is: much like PC sales, Android sales will be dominated by 2 or 3 primary companies, with dozens of other vendors attempting to compete. My opinion is that Apple is about to get hammered as the iPhone's market share collides with Android and loses. I believe within eight quarters their profit will fall from $40x billion to $25 billion annually, and they'll lose 1/3 of their existing market share while margins also keep falling.
- ashishgandhi 13y ago
  From above: > "I would wager that within two years..." > "My opinion is that Apple is about to get hammered..." From elsewhere on this post: > "Android is going to take 85%+ of the global smart phone market..." > "The iPhone's market share will stop growing this year..." > "I don't think it will hold up..." I like that you are so confident about the future and I'm quite interested to know how you make these predictions?
  - adventured 13y ago
    I've been making the Android / iOS argument for over three years. Any forward projections are just opinion obviously. I have a particular talent for spotting negative positions in stocks and trends in general. I'm not trying to prove that I do, take my word for whatever it's worth to you. In equities I've derived it from the Graham-Dodd-Buffett approach. I've found it exceptionally easy to spot when to short stocks by reversing the Graham Dodd approach (it works for spotting undervalued equities, and it works equally for spotting overvalued equities, I just happen to be good at that side of it). On the technology side, if you understand Apple's business model, and you understand how technology markets work toward consolidation around standards, and then you apply the context of what Android is and its vendors / support / ecosystem (and whether it's of high enough quality to be good enough for that 80% to 90% of consumers, to rule ala Windows) - the rest is obvious, it lays out a momentum line that can't be stopped. There are exceptionally painful consequences to Apple losing market share that very few are pricing into things. The mistake I see often is linear thinking on market share to profits; eg if Apple is making $30 billion on 20% market share, said people then think Apple could make $15 billion on 10% market share (when in fact there are numerous destructive penalties for falling below thresholds in the market, regarding developers / apps, music, media, consumer perception, negotiating position with suppliers, stock price falling and losing key employees and on and on).
    - petsos 13y ago
      > I've been making the Android / iOS argument for over three years So, can you give us links to some of your predictions 3 years ago in order to assess your accuracy?

adventured 13y ago

I would wager that within two years Samsung will be making more money on smart phones than Apple. Apple's profits are going backwards now, while Samsung is growing very quickly. I believe that's a trend that will continue. Microsoft earns a lot more selling Windows and Windows server and surrounding products than all of the Linux vendors make supporting Linux combined (Redhat makes a mere $100m a year in profit for example). Does that inherently imply anything about Linux? No. What you're talking about is today (regarding Apple's profits). What I'm interested in is the trend of Android taking most of the market and what that'll mean in five years for Apple and the Android vendors. What it'll mean is: much like PC sales, Android sales will be dominated by 2 or 3 primary companies, with dozens of other vendors attempting to compete. My opinion is that Apple is about to get hammered as the iPhone's market share collides with Android and loses. I believe within eight quarters their profit will fall from $40x billion to $25 billion annually, and they'll lose 1/3 of their existing market share while margins also keep falling.

ashishgandhi 13y ago
From above: > "I would wager that within two years..." > "My opinion is that Apple is about to get hammered..." From elsewhere on this post: > "Android is going to take 85%+ of the global smart phone market..." > "The iPhone's market share will stop growing this year..." > "I don't think it will hold up..." I like that you are so confident about the future and I'm quite interested to know how you make these predictions?
- adventured 13y ago
  I've been making the Android / iOS argument for over three years. Any forward projections are just opinion obviously. I have a particular talent for spotting negative positions in stocks and trends in general. I'm not trying to prove that I do, take my word for whatever it's worth to you. In equities I've derived it from the Graham-Dodd-Buffett approach. I've found it exceptionally easy to spot when to short stocks by reversing the Graham Dodd approach (it works for spotting undervalued equities, and it works equally for spotting overvalued equities, I just happen to be good at that side of it). On the technology side, if you understand Apple's business model, and you understand how technology markets work toward consolidation around standards, and then you apply the context of what Android is and its vendors / support / ecosystem (and whether it's of high enough quality to be good enough for that 80% to 90% of consumers, to rule ala Windows) - the rest is obvious, it lays out a momentum line that can't be stopped. There are exceptionally painful consequences to Apple losing market share that very few are pricing into things. The mistake I see often is linear thinking on market share to profits; eg if Apple is making $30 billion on 20% market share, said people then think Apple could make $15 billion on 10% market share (when in fact there are numerous destructive penalties for falling below thresholds in the market, regarding developers / apps, music, media, consumer perception, negotiating position with suppliers, stock price falling and losing key employees and on and on).
  - petsos 13y ago
    > I've been making the Android / iOS argument for over three years So, can you give us links to some of your predictions 3 years ago in order to assess your accuracy?