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Just so I can defuse lots of the commentary that always comes up whenever North Korea is mentioned: 1) Most of NK's artillery is not in range of Seoul, the few

Just so I can defuse lots of the commentary that always comes up whenever North Korea is mentioned: 1) Most of NK's artillery is not in range of Seoul, the few that are in range of Seoul are in range of the northern part of Greater Seoul (essentially suburbs), which are nowhere near as populated as Seoul proper. NK has a very small amount mobile artillery which could be repositioned, but US/SK artillery and reconnaissance will be able to hit mobile artillery attempted to move within range of Seoul before it can get close enough to do any damage. Our missiles go further, hit harder, hit more accurately, than theirs do. 2) North Korea will not engage in a mainland war before receiving authorization or warning China, at which point Chinese tourists will be recalled from Seoul and Jeju. China will not allow North Korea to threaten the affluent Chinese tourists that frequent those area, and should North Korea attempt to do so it will be facing an invasion from the Chinese border, and most likely Russian border. 3) North Korea will likely try to hit a few small islands as part of their saber rattling in order to receive aid and will not escalate any further without North Korea losing everything in a matter of moments. 4) I'm in South Korea right now (Seoul actually) and I can tell you there is no tension in the air over this issue on the part of Koreans. 5) North Korea has no way to remotely deliver a nuclear device. The only countries that have developed miniturized nukes that the North Koreans could "carry" into the country are the US, Soviet Union, and possibly Israel. They have no "suitcase nuke" nor the technology to develop one. The only way they could "nuke" Seoul is if they build one within Seoul.

EliRivers 14y ago
You have a great deal of faith in China's ability to control the DPRK. Given that China is now part of the international community behind the latest sanctions (which this action is at least partly a response to), why do you think the DPRK leadership will require Beijing's approval for their actions? Have you visited the North? When I was there last year the Juche philosophy was as much a part of everyone as the casual references to the Great Leader being the Sun of the World; the attitude amongst the people I spoke to was that China was, whilst a friendly neighbour, not necessary to the wellbeing of the DPRK (no comment on how true that actually is - just on what I gathered of people's attitudes). As it is, I do agree this is just more sabre-rattling and it is to be taken as seriously as all the previous sabre-rattling. The real announcement of continuing the war will be troop movements and the like, which will be very easily seen in advance.
- kapnobatairza 14y ago
  China has a huge number of affluent tourists in Seoul and Jeju island. If NK crosses the DMZ, it will put those tourists at risk - And if North Korea kills any Chinese tourists, you can rest assured China will breaze into the country through the undefended Northern border, dismantle NK's military, and select a new puppet regime from within the government. North Korea knows this, so will not act without China's blessing or at least giving China time to recall Chinese citizens from Seoul. Otherwise, North Korea has to fight a war with the Chinese in the North and NATO/South Korea in the South. This is an obvious recipe for swift and utter defeat. The alternate scenario is that China uses it's stooges in the NK government and military to stage a coup d'etat. Doesn't really matter what the North Korean people think, they will believe whatever nonsense their government feeds them, and there is no lack of Il-Sung descendants to pick from to be the figurehead of whatever puppet regime they choose to back. You should probably know that Kim Jong Un is entirely a figure head and all decisions are made by a faction within his government led by his uncle-in-law Chang. Not even the NK government itself is unified behind Kim Jong Un/Chang, and its likely that there will be plenty of factions happy to take the job of China's lapdog as soon as they decide NK is threatening rich Chinese citizens.
  - EliRivers 14y ago
    Is China really so big on tourists? I must say I find it odd that this comes across so strongly. Nothing about upsetting the political and military balance in the region, no inherent fear of what happens when US troops start running around the DPRK literally on the Chinese border. It's all about the the tourists.
    - fakeer 14y ago
      >>Is China really so big on tourists? I doubt that too. but as he mentioned >>rich Chinese citizens. this might be a catch because rich and influential people wield more clout in communist China than in pure capitalist nations like USA. Given that they don't have real nukes or ways to deliver them the real worry is what happens when NK is run down and then China enters the stage, says NK was my cousin - I will take over of the family and house.
seanmcdirmid 14y ago
> 2) North Korea will not engage in a mainland war before receiving authorization or warning China, at which point Chinese tourists will be recalled from Seoul and Jeju. China will not allow North Korea to threaten the affluent Chinese tourists that frequent those area, and should North Korea attempt to do so it will be facing an invasion from the Chinese border, and most likely Russian border. Are you Chinese? The PRC government is not very paternalistic on any tourists abroad, who are basically on their own; China is not going to sacrifice any intelligence advantages to protect a few tourists (and neither would the US). The DPRK is also not close enough to the PRC to ask for permission, though I'm sure they know what the PRC desires in terms of this.
- kapnobatairza 14y ago
  1) Any government is paternalistic about their citizens abroad, especially one's with money/connections/influence. And I'm surprised that you think that US citizens getting killed through North Korean action in South Korea would not lead to an immediate response by the US government. You believe that the US government would say "Oh yeah, well, they just killed many of our citizens but lets wait to attack because..." Because what? Preserve what intelligence? You are also misguided and misinformed about the relationship between the DPRK and China. While it is possible that North Korea will act without permission, they will not act without warning China beforehand.
  - seanmcdirmid 14y ago
    > And I'm surprised that you think that US citizens getting killed through North Korean action in South Korea would not lead to an immediate response by the US government. It wouldn't be what we are thinking. Generally, just having the country invaded is enough for us to be involved, actually. > You are also misguided and misinformed about the relationship between the DPRK and China. While it is possible that North Korea will act without permission, they will not act without warning China beforehand. I live in Beijing and pay attention. I don't think you are really informed very well; if the DPRK bothered to warn China, it would just give them some extra time to get some troops from Liaoning across the Yalu to stop their plans cold. Their first thought wouldn't be: let's save our tourists!

EliRivers 14y ago

You have a great deal of faith in China's ability to control the DPRK. Given that China is now part of the international community behind the latest sanctions (which this action is at least partly a response to), why do you think the DPRK leadership will require Beijing's approval for their actions? Have you visited the North? When I was there last year the Juche philosophy was as much a part of everyone as the casual references to the Great Leader being the Sun of the World; the attitude amongst the people I spoke to was that China was, whilst a friendly neighbour, not necessary to the wellbeing of the DPRK (no comment on how true that actually is - just on what I gathered of people's attitudes). As it is, I do agree this is just more sabre-rattling and it is to be taken as seriously as all the previous sabre-rattling. The real announcement of continuing the war will be troop movements and the like, which will be very easily seen in advance.

kapnobatairza 14y ago
China has a huge number of affluent tourists in Seoul and Jeju island. If NK crosses the DMZ, it will put those tourists at risk - And if North Korea kills any Chinese tourists, you can rest assured China will breaze into the country through the undefended Northern border, dismantle NK's military, and select a new puppet regime from within the government. North Korea knows this, so will not act without China's blessing or at least giving China time to recall Chinese citizens from Seoul. Otherwise, North Korea has to fight a war with the Chinese in the North and NATO/South Korea in the South. This is an obvious recipe for swift and utter defeat. The alternate scenario is that China uses it's stooges in the NK government and military to stage a coup d'etat. Doesn't really matter what the North Korean people think, they will believe whatever nonsense their government feeds them, and there is no lack of Il-Sung descendants to pick from to be the figurehead of whatever puppet regime they choose to back. You should probably know that Kim Jong Un is entirely a figure head and all decisions are made by a faction within his government led by his uncle-in-law Chang. Not even the NK government itself is unified behind Kim Jong Un/Chang, and its likely that there will be plenty of factions happy to take the job of China's lapdog as soon as they decide NK is threatening rich Chinese citizens.
- EliRivers 14y ago
  Is China really so big on tourists? I must say I find it odd that this comes across so strongly. Nothing about upsetting the political and military balance in the region, no inherent fear of what happens when US troops start running around the DPRK literally on the Chinese border. It's all about the the tourists.
  - fakeer 14y ago
    >>Is China really so big on tourists? I doubt that too. but as he mentioned >>rich Chinese citizens. this might be a catch because rich and influential people wield more clout in communist China than in pure capitalist nations like USA. Given that they don't have real nukes or ways to deliver them the real worry is what happens when NK is run down and then China enters the stage, says NK was my cousin - I will take over of the family and house.

seanmcdirmid 14y ago

> 2) North Korea will not engage in a mainland war before receiving authorization or warning China, at which point Chinese tourists will be recalled from Seoul and Jeju. China will not allow North Korea to threaten the affluent Chinese tourists that frequent those area, and should North Korea attempt to do so it will be facing an invasion from the Chinese border, and most likely Russian border. Are you Chinese? The PRC government is not very paternalistic on any tourists abroad, who are basically on their own; China is not going to sacrifice any intelligence advantages to protect a few tourists (and neither would the US). The DPRK is also not close enough to the PRC to ask for permission, though I'm sure they know what the PRC desires in terms of this.

kapnobatairza 14y ago
1) Any government is paternalistic about their citizens abroad, especially one's with money/connections/influence. And I'm surprised that you think that US citizens getting killed through North Korean action in South Korea would not lead to an immediate response by the US government. You believe that the US government would say "Oh yeah, well, they just killed many of our citizens but lets wait to attack because..." Because what? Preserve what intelligence? You are also misguided and misinformed about the relationship between the DPRK and China. While it is possible that North Korea will act without permission, they will not act without warning China beforehand.
- seanmcdirmid 14y ago
  > And I'm surprised that you think that US citizens getting killed through North Korean action in South Korea would not lead to an immediate response by the US government. It wouldn't be what we are thinking. Generally, just having the country invaded is enough for us to be involved, actually. > You are also misguided and misinformed about the relationship between the DPRK and China. While it is possible that North Korea will act without permission, they will not act without warning China beforehand. I live in Beijing and pay attention. I don't think you are really informed very well; if the DPRK bothered to warn China, it would just give them some extra time to get some troops from Liaoning across the Yalu to stop their plans cold. Their first thought wouldn't be: let's save our tourists!