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Right. This is one of the realities a lot of people unfamiliar with the geography of Korea fail to understand. The North has just a ton of rockets pointed at,

Right. This is one of the realities a lot of people unfamiliar with the geography of Korea fail to understand. The North has just a ton of rockets pointed at, and within range of, Seoul. The North declares war and we are all forced to treat it as a joke because taking it seriously and actually letting the hot war start would be devastating. This is China's mess. China really needs to step in here and do something. It's fence-sat with the North for too long. It has understandable concerns about North Korean refugees flooding across its borders, but its tolerance of bad behavior and resistance to taking stronger action to influence it's unruly charge is leading to it losing face at best, and at worse being seen as contributing to a needless conflict with great loss of life should it occur.

seanmcdirmid 14y ago
What can China do? Damned if they do and damned if they don't. China doesn't want war, but they don't want change either. They don't want DPRK to implode, they like the status quo as it is. They don't want refugees flooding in to Liaoning, and they don't want the Americans to cross that parallel in any case. But if war comes, the PLA might just strike first across the Yalu and end it quickly. The DPRK is extremely aware of this, it makes them more weary to start anything because they have no real friends. Do not think for a second that China has some sort of dictator that can decide what side of the fence they want to be on. You have a lot of diversity in thought on what to do about the DPRK in the PRC. Many of them still don't trust the US, and its more important to check us than to preserve trade relationships.
- kapnobatairza 14y ago
  China doesn't want war. Period. I don't think you realize how many affluent Chinese tourists there are in Seoul. The moment China lets North Korea cross the DMZ is the moment China invades North Korea themselves and installs some new puppet regime. I don't think you understand what kind of uproar would occur in China should any Chinese casualties occur because of North Korea's antics.
  - seanmcdirmid 14y ago
    > I don't think you realize how many affluent Chinese tourists there are in Seoul. The PRC government could give a shit about a few tourists. Its more about the trade relations they have with the ROK (and PSY is really popular here). > The moment China lets North Korea cross the DMZ is the moment China invades North Korea themselves and installs some new puppet regime. Reread my post, this is exactly what I said. If you didn't know, the Yalu river forms the border between Liaoning and DPRK. > I don't think you understand what kind of uproar would occur in China should any Chinese casualties occur because of North Korea's antics. Now that is a weird statement to make. First of all, they are more concerned with trade relations, think of all the PRC citizens that will starve to death if the export factories have to close down because the PRC is in it bad with the US?
    - kapnobatairza 14y ago
      You are incorrect that "they could [sic] give a shit" (you probably meant couldn't) about wealthy Chinese citizens. With affluence comes influence. Maybe if we were talking about factory labourers they would not care, but when a country's wealthiest citizens are in mortal peril you can bet your ass there will a swift response. You are correct that trade relations are key here, and I omitted this 800 pound gorilla. Thank you for the addition.
      - seanmcdirmid 14y ago
        When its war, they aren't going to sacrifice any intelligence/surprise advantage to preserve a few tourists, that is true for either side (PRC, ROK, DPRK, USA). It doesn't matter who these citizens are actually, and its probably not the "country's wealthiest citizens," those are either safely at home or in Hong Kong. We are talking just about a few rich business men at most.
        kapnobatairza 14y ago
        The situation is not so delicate that China would be able to brush off these deaths for strategic reasons. I'm not even sure what you think a strategic reason for China biding it's time would be. A vague reference to intelligence/surprise attack doesn't really mean anything. A rapid response from the north is an automatic loss for North Korea, there will be no waiting.
kapnobatairza 14y ago
The moment that North Korea crosses the line China will simply roll through the undefended Northern border, dismantle NK's military, and install a new puppet regime from within the current government. Simple as that.

seanmcdirmid 14y ago

What can China do? Damned if they do and damned if they don't. China doesn't want war, but they don't want change either. They don't want DPRK to implode, they like the status quo as it is. They don't want refugees flooding in to Liaoning, and they don't want the Americans to cross that parallel in any case. But if war comes, the PLA might just strike first across the Yalu and end it quickly. The DPRK is extremely aware of this, it makes them more weary to start anything because they have no real friends. Do not think for a second that China has some sort of dictator that can decide what side of the fence they want to be on. You have a lot of diversity in thought on what to do about the DPRK in the PRC. Many of them still don't trust the US, and its more important to check us than to preserve trade relationships.

kapnobatairza 14y ago
China doesn't want war. Period. I don't think you realize how many affluent Chinese tourists there are in Seoul. The moment China lets North Korea cross the DMZ is the moment China invades North Korea themselves and installs some new puppet regime. I don't think you understand what kind of uproar would occur in China should any Chinese casualties occur because of North Korea's antics.
- seanmcdirmid 14y ago
  > I don't think you realize how many affluent Chinese tourists there are in Seoul. The PRC government could give a shit about a few tourists. Its more about the trade relations they have with the ROK (and PSY is really popular here). > The moment China lets North Korea cross the DMZ is the moment China invades North Korea themselves and installs some new puppet regime. Reread my post, this is exactly what I said. If you didn't know, the Yalu river forms the border between Liaoning and DPRK. > I don't think you understand what kind of uproar would occur in China should any Chinese casualties occur because of North Korea's antics. Now that is a weird statement to make. First of all, they are more concerned with trade relations, think of all the PRC citizens that will starve to death if the export factories have to close down because the PRC is in it bad with the US?
  - kapnobatairza 14y ago
    You are incorrect that "they could [sic] give a shit" (you probably meant couldn't) about wealthy Chinese citizens. With affluence comes influence. Maybe if we were talking about factory labourers they would not care, but when a country's wealthiest citizens are in mortal peril you can bet your ass there will a swift response. You are correct that trade relations are key here, and I omitted this 800 pound gorilla. Thank you for the addition.
    - seanmcdirmid 14y ago
      When its war, they aren't going to sacrifice any intelligence/surprise advantage to preserve a few tourists, that is true for either side (PRC, ROK, DPRK, USA). It doesn't matter who these citizens are actually, and its probably not the "country's wealthiest citizens," those are either safely at home or in Hong Kong. We are talking just about a few rich business men at most.
      - kapnobatairza 14y ago
        The situation is not so delicate that China would be able to brush off these deaths for strategic reasons. I'm not even sure what you think a strategic reason for China biding it's time would be. A vague reference to intelligence/surprise attack doesn't really mean anything. A rapid response from the north is an automatic loss for North Korea, there will be no waiting.

kapnobatairza 14y ago

The moment that North Korea crosses the line China will simply roll through the undefended Northern border, dismantle NK's military, and install a new puppet regime from within the current government. Simple as that.