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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/99942_Apophis http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/99942_Apophis It's Level 1 on the Torino impact hazard scale. The close approach in 20
by maeon3 14y ago
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/99942_Apophis http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/99942_Apophis
It's Level 1 on the Torino impact hazard scale.
The close approach in 2029 will substantially alter the object's orbit, making predictions uncertain without more data.
If it hits Earth, then it's 500 megatons of TNT going off.
If it passes through a half mile "keyhole" which is unlikely, it will hit Earth in 2036.
Apophis broke the record for the highest level on the Torino Scale, being, for only a short time, a level 4, before it was lowered.
So worst case scenario: it hits the half mile keyhole and in 2036 the equivalent of a nuclear weapon (10 tsar bomba's at once) goes off on a certain city. But there is a plot twist. There will be weeks of warning, and the risk area where it will hit will be narrowed to the size of half the earth, or if we use the science, maybe a whole continent.
So it'll be like a hurricane evacuation, but instead of one state, it will be quarter of the earth's surface. Imagine the logistical nightmare if that happened near India/china. The prospect of relocating 5 billion people within 2 weeks notice with all of their junk and to do it sustainably? Plot for a cool sci fi movie there.
- wooptoo 14y agoIt looks like we won't have to worry about the year 2038 problem anymore. Everyone can go back to 32 bit systems now.
- wyuenho 14y agoI wonder what kind of weaponry and energy is required to push it away from Earth's orbit or just simply shatter it into much smaller piece so they'll burn up in the atmosphere.
- xhrpost 14y agoIf asteroid mining becomes a reality, I wonder if we could simply mine the thing down to nothing before impact.
- pavel_lishin 14y agoSure, but when you mine stuff, where does the stuff go? Instead of deflecting the whole asteroid, you're suggesting chipping it into a bunch of pieces and deflecting those somewhere. Same problem.
- will_work4tears 14y agoWe'd bring what we mined to earth or the moon, wherever the processing plants are. Mine != blow up and leave alone.
- pavel_lishin 14y agoIf you blow it up and leave it alone, it still hits the earth with just as much energy.
- will_work4tears 14y agoThat's not what mining is. Mining isn't deflecting. They would use and ideally process the material they mine. Not blow it up, not deflect it, possibly strip it down entirely and use as much of it as possible. Could be trillions of dollars of materials there.
- pavel_lishin 14y agoRight. But unless you want the products to stay on the asteroid, you have to ship it somewhere. Shipping it somewhere would also move the asteroid.
- will_work4tears 14y agoSo you are saying if they mine 10 tons of Iron, and bring it to earth, sans the rest of the asteroid, it'll blow up and cause destruction on earth? I think I missed that part in physics. Otherwise I don't see your point.
- Tuna-Fish 14y agoShattering a big rock into smaller pieces doesn't actually change anything about how hard it hits. At these kinds of energy scales, it's really just all about the kinetic energy it delivers. Even if the entire asteroid was vaporized before it hit it would still hit more or less as hard.
- marcosdumay 14y agoIt changes the aerodynamics properties, that are what protect us from most impacts.
- dredmorbius 14y agoYou're still heating up the atmosphere and generating shock waves. The difference is that you're distributing the initial shock over a larger area (and possibly longer time period). Any sufficiently large strike would create similar results by way of ejecta which would be thrown from the impact site and re-enter the atmosphere and strike the planet elsewhere. You might be able to avoid certain order-of-magnitude effects, such as piercing the crust and exposing the mantle, but at that scale of impact, it's pretty much assured to be a bad day regardless.
- Uchikoma 14y agoThere was a Scifi book series in my childhood, that really impacted my thinking: Commander Brandis. They needed to evacuate Europe, introduced prios for people, in the end the military just shot everyone trying to get evacuated and evacuated themselves.
- StavrosK 14y agoNot "the equivalent of a nuclear weapon", the equivalent of 10 times the Tsar Bomba, whose shockwave circled the earth three times. I imagine it would be much cheaper to send three rockets to slightly nudge it off its course.
- yread 14y agoAccording to this model http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:2036_Apophis_Path_of_Risk.jpg http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:2036_Apophis_Path_of_Risk.... it seems to avoid highly populated regions (mostly). Tsar bomba was detonated in Novaya Zemlya which is arguably more remote, though.
- Trufa 14y agoIt seems to be lowered to 0? http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/a99942.html http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/a99942.html
- anonymfus 14y agoThere is a brilliant comedy about world-wide evacuation: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nihon_Igai_Zenbu_Chinbotsu http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nihon_Igai_Zenbu_Chinbotsu
- marckremers 14y agoA three season HBO series I'd say. The actual evacuation, the event, and the reality a few years later. Directed by someone like Alfonso Cuarón (Children of Men). I know there are dozens of cheesy movies out their covering the subject, but this angle maeon3 is suggesting is really interesting!