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China is about to massively compete. And doesn't Micron and someone else have new fabs in NY coming online ? I can't imagine they're going to exclusively make H
by Melatonic 5d ago
China is about to massively compete. And doesn't Micron and someone else have new fabs in NY coming online ? I can't imagine they're going to exclusively make HBM.
Ram always goes through these boom and bust cycles. They're going to increase supply but not so much that they're eventually left with huge overproduction as usual.
Of course if Google researchers come up with more ram reduction tricks for newer AI architectures that could make a huge difference as well
- Dylan16807 5d agoI don't expect China to be a particularly large competitor in the next year or two affected by the decision in the article, but they'll help a lot in the long run. Micron's NY fab had a press release two months ago that they started pouring the first concrete, so that's far from coming online. If AI demand sticks around and buildouts stay cautious it could take much much longer than usual to build up enough capacity to push prices back down below $3/GB. More efficient AI memory use risks even more demand for memory because you're now able to get even more performance per dollar; the benefit of extra memory has to be sufficiently far into diminishing returns for demand to drop overall.