4 ms·

> What specifically did that say that you think is wrong? You said: > the market doesn't fit the issue. I presume you meant "fix" not "fit". You are wrong th

by chr15m 5d ago

> What specifically did that say that you think is wrong? You said: > the market doesn't fit the issue. I presume you meant "fix" not "fit". You are wrong that the market will not fix the issue. There are literally millions of observed cases across many markets of increased demand (or decreased supply) leading to higher prices leading to increased supply leading to lower prices, which is why it's a fundamental law of economics. The price of RAM will fall.

Dylan16807 5d ago
> You said: That wasn't me. Also they're talking about the short to medium term. On that time scale they're not wrong. The market is so far from fixing it right now, it's going in the opposite direction. The market is chasing HBM money which is outbidding everything else. > The price of RAM will fall. And if that might take 5+ years, that's not much comfort. > higher prices leading to increased supply leading to lower prices So far higher prices are causing barely any supply increases. (Note that the article we're commenting on is about a supply decrease.) Companies are barely trying to expand, and even if they do start trying hard it'll take a very long time.
eek2121 5d ago
I feel like everyone here forgets that the DRAM industry is operated by one big cartel. The rules of supply and demand don't apply here. Now that prices are up, they will keep it up, cutting supply as needed in order to do so. Every big DRAM manufacturer in the industry has been charged with price fixing, among other things: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DRAM_industry_price_fixing https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DRAM_industry_price_fixing There are so few players in this space they can coordinate and collude pretty easily.
- Melatonic 5d ago
  DRAM isn't nearly as hard to get into as compute. The price fixing stuff is going to bite them in the ass someday soon by massively increasing the incentives for new players to enter the market and compete.

by chr15m 5d ago

Dylan16807 5d ago

> You said: That wasn't me. Also they're talking about the short to medium term. On that time scale they're not wrong. The market is so far from fixing it right now, it's going in the opposite direction. The market is chasing HBM money which is outbidding everything else. > The price of RAM will fall. And if that might take 5+ years, that's not much comfort. > higher prices leading to increased supply leading to lower prices So far higher prices are causing barely any supply increases. (Note that the article we're commenting on is about a supply decrease.) Companies are barely trying to expand, and even if they do start trying hard it'll take a very long time.

eek2121 5d ago

I feel like everyone here forgets that the DRAM industry is operated by one big cartel. The rules of supply and demand don't apply here. Now that prices are up, they will keep it up, cutting supply as needed in order to do so. Every big DRAM manufacturer in the industry has been charged with price fixing, among other things: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DRAM_industry_price_fixing https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DRAM_industry_price_fixing There are so few players in this space they can coordinate and collude pretty easily.

Melatonic 5d ago
DRAM isn't nearly as hard to get into as compute. The price fixing stuff is going to bite them in the ass someday soon by massively increasing the incentives for new players to enter the market and compete.