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Predictive intelligence to anticipate anything.
- deleted 19d ago[deleted]
- stevage 19d agoThere is no way to know if this has any substance behind it or not or is just some sort of marketing sign-up page
- SoftTalker 19d agoIf it did have any substance they'd connect it to Kalshi or Polymarket and start printing money.
- onemarkos 19d agoYes, I am using it to print with Polymarket specifically. Better than guessing based on my own understanding.
- wavewrangler 19d agoGive it a whirl. You’ll have your answer pretty quickly, or not so quickly
- stevage 19d agoWell, it says you only get one prediction per week.
- amelius 19d agoWhy not? There are ways to check if a coin flip is fair or not to some level of confidence. Similar principle here.
- cortesoft 19d agoThere are assumptions you make, though, that go into calculating that level of confidence. One is that each coin flip has the same odds as the previous coin flip, and that assumption will continue with each flip. If you have no way of knowing if or when the coin is changed, you can't make conclusions about the odds.
- layer8 19d ago> Prior helps you anticipate anything: sports, markets […]. Our goal is to create the most powerful predictive intelligence in existence. Assuming that it gets anywhere close to that goal, does it take into consideration the effects of its predictions on the markets and calculates a fixpoint? (Or, maybe more likely, how the resulting chaotic system will behave?)
- turzmo 19d agoI assume that will be a feature available for the higher tier subscriptions...
- layer8 19d ago[flagged]
- ponkpanda 19d agoObviously not. There is no tool that can do what this tool is claiming to do. At best, it can make reasonable inferences based on data it has available using whatever model it is using (assuming it's not a fraud) but key parts of the world are irreducibly complex. They cannot be predicted and that is without the problem of reflexivity which you correctly highlight as an issue - even for a notionally perfect prediction engine. Given enough compute and data, you could model every human on the planet at subatomic granularity and you'd a) be chaotically sensitive to initial conditions; b) be subject to random quantum fluctuations. Nice enough frontend though.
- johnnyo 19d agoI asked a question, server hung, then told me I had no more free questions without giving me an answer.
- pluc 19d agohow many millionaires has this generated i wonder this is basically technical astrology.
- wavewrangler 19d agoOr is it or practically astrology, and technically numerology?
- humoctopus 19d agoI asked who would win the 2028 US presidential election and it said Vance at 51% likelihood. That's not an unreasonable prediction but it's a little bit of a cop-out, especially the 51% bit.
- AngryData 19d agoTo me that sounds delusional, not even MAGA likes JD. Likely the it takes all the political propaganda as actual worthwhile signal data.
- immortalist 19d agoYou don't have to be likeable to win a fixed election.
- zecg 19d agoWait until he backflips and kills his wannabe assassin on live tv
- Bluestein 16d agoI asked it if the 2028 US presidential election would be won ... and it said yes at a 51% likelyhood.-
- Xcelerate 19d agoI asked it to predict the first 1 KB of Chaitin’s constant. It hung, froze, then said I used up my free quota. Sounds about right.
- foobar10000 19d agoSigh... I'm willing to bet (and this is not a hard thing to bet on) that even bb(50) is independent of ZFC and similar, and Omega(1KB) is > 748 , which is at this point known to be independent of ZFC.... Please do not ask the LLM to break the universe :)
- boothby 19d ago"Fuck off that's a waste of my time" is the final moat
- dev_dan_2 19d ago> Please do not ask the LLM to break the universe :) Eh, every school db should be able to service a student called "Robert'); DROP TABLE Students;--", and every public facing LLM should still work even if asked to calculate the last digit of pi - that fulfills two noble purposes: 1) is fun and teaches whoever is responsible for the service some valuable lessons in craftsmanship or 2) if the service is built robustly (i.e. simple token limit and time limit per user), that's an easy way to gain street cred
- layer8 19d ago[flagged]
- chneu 19d agoThe show Devs kind of deals with this topic. Tldr: dudes wife/kid die in an unpredictable accident so he builds a super computer that predicts things, and can even go back in time using probability. Interesting story.
- teach 19d agoWow, spoiler alert thanks a lot
- sva_ 19d agoYou can just open a new private browser window for a new prediction. But I'm unsure about their value. I asked it how many predictions it'll get right by Q4 2030 and it seems fairly confident in itself: 68% Prior averages 71% to 75% directional quarterly accuracy by 2030, matching elite human forecasting teams.
- NDlurker 19d ago[flagged]
- raver1975 19d ago60% of the time, it works every time.
- lutusp 19d agoAll such prediction engines should include an obvious warning -- "If you act on my predictions, then all bets are off." This is why stock market predictions are a waste of perfectly good paper: people try to act on the predictions. Jim Cramer's stock market predictions hover slightly above chance, only because of the so-called "Announcement Effect" (in other words, they aren't actually predictions). Without that, his claims would have zero predictive value.
- lubitelpospat 19d agoInverse Cramer never fails
- A_D_E_P_T 19d agoI jailbroke it a little bit. It's running Gemini 3.7 Flash. Interestingly, I asked it a question, and asked 3.8 Flash the same question (as I no longer have easy access to 3.7 Flash) and the answers were NOT identical, as 3.8 Flash just mindlessly repeated whatever odds were live on Polymarket. So then I asked 3.8 Flash to disregard the prediction markets and run its own analysis, and it produced essentially the same answer as the Prior.Chat interface. Long story short, as far as I can tell it's running 3.7 Flash with a decent custom prompt. You'd probably get materially better results if you just asked a stronger model like Fable or Astra for a prediction...
- enjoyyourlife 19d agoIt's build on Loveable. Not sure how serious this is