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This would not be happening if the USA had not launched an attack on Iran This was the desired effect though, as higher oil prices means more profit for US bas
by iso1631 15d ago
This would not be happening if the USA had not launched an attack on Iran
This was the desired effect though, as higher oil prices means more profit for US based oil producers. I'm sure that will trickle down any time now.
- disgruntledphd2 15d ago> This was the desired effect though Honestly, I think you're giving far too much credit to the current US government.
- gizajob 15d agoIt’s a simple calculation though and not talked about enough. USA went to war in Iraq 25 years ago thanks to the oilmen in charge at that time. For all the political bluster about Iran and gas prices, $100 oil makes them hugely more profit than $60 oil. Of course producers and shareholders of American oil companies want that extra free money. They’re not pumping oil out of the ground and keeping it at a low price just to be benevolent to the American consumer.
- toomuchtodo 15d agoI think that is a contributor, but the root cause of the Iran war was Netanyahu goading a simple person into it. The US military and intelligence community knew the risk of this, told everyone not to do it, and they did it anyway. (if one is some combination of unsophisticated, irrational, and vain, and in a position of power, they will eventually be exploited by someone more rational and sophisticated, imho)
- gizajob 15d agoThat’s correct but it’s multimodal. It might not have been the reason for getting involved in the first place but it does now seem like a reason for something happening every time the oil price starts to drop again.
- toomuchtodo 15d agoStrongly agree, there's alway nuance and complexity.
- wombat-man 15d agoI don't even really understand Israel's game plan here. Iran took a lot of damage but now they control the strait, they have a lot of leverage. Hard to know how it's going to shake out, but how is Israel better off now?
- toomuchtodo 15d agoThis was Israel’s last chance to strike on Iran using the US as the munition, because the next Congress and President wouldn’t and Netanyahu (76 years old as of this comment, close to end of male life expectancy) will only live or be in power for so long. Very similar to Putin (73 years old, as of this comment) making his move against Ukraine when he did. Light cone of potential outcomes and path dependency. “Old men pulling triggers out of ideology before they’re too weak to.” I argue that, in many ways, extended life expectancy has been a curse in this context. It has allowed unscrupulous people positions of power where great harm is incurred with limited repercussions (if any!), positions of power they would not be in if they had aged out sooner. You can only wait to vote them out, or wait for them to die if you cannot vote them out. Very unfortunate.
- iso1631 15d agoThey don't care about long term effects because they don't need to suffer them.
- toomuchtodo 15d agoCorrect. "Show me the incentive and I'll show you the outcome." -- Charlie Munger Can systems be changed to expose these folks to the appropriate incentives that will improve outcomes? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
- mikeyouse 15d agoThey’ve massively expanded into Lebanon and Gaza, settlements are continuing to grow at an alarming pace, the Saudis have little choice but to get massively more involved in fighting Iran and their proxies, A less feckless US campaign could have eliminated or greatly weakened Iran’s nuclear program, Bibi’s mostly consolidated all power in Israel… it hasn’t worked out that poorly for Israel.
- nradov 15d agoIt's more complex than that. US crude oil extraction companies don't want prices to climb too high as longer term that destroys demand and encourages customers to find alternatives. Something in the $75–80/bbl range for WTI crude is probably optimal to maximize long-term industry profits.
- iso1631 15d agoThey can afford to let domestic prices increase more due to the political allies they have. When burning oil is subsidised by wind farms are banned that's a win-win for the oil companies.
- avidruntime 15d agoPersonally I think the hanlon's razor approach is an intellectually lazy thought terminating cliche that provides cover to people/groups who do act with malice. A US administration sympathetic to Russia stands to benefit from higher oil prices.
- josefritzishere 15d ago[dead]
- fpoling 15d agoRefineries in US are making even bigger profits. They even skip on maintenance running at 95% capacity non-stop.
- bluGill 15d agoFor now. They are well aware of the long picture. They know how long they can risk doing without maintenance, and will do it eventually. They are also well aware that EVs are coming and high fuel prices hurt them long term because people will switch and not come back. Someone else suggested they see $85/bbl as the ideal price. I don't know if that is true, but it seems reasonable.
- fpoling 15d agoEV is committing irrespectively of what refineries are doing at this point. The latest Chinese models with a reasonable range are cheaper to manufacture than ICE cars. So I can see why refineries want to get as much money as possible now before the massive switch to EV.
- bluGill 15d agoNo Chinese EVs in the US (yet)... This is a really complex optimization problem, but slowing EV adoption, which low gas prices help, is likely the better course for a few more years. Eventually just gouge the petrol users left is the most profit, but I don't think that has been reached yet.
- gruez 15d ago>This was the desired effect though, as higher oil prices means more profit for US based oil producers. I'm sure that will trickle down any time now. That's giving the Trump administration too much credit. Before the war there were pieces about how oil companies were doing worse under Trump than under Biden[1]. Of course, you could argue that the Iran war is Trump finally responding to oil companies, but given that it only started more than a year after he took power, it really makes you wonder whether Trump is bumbling along, or playing some 5d chess with the global oil market. On the flip side there's plenty of evidence that he doesn't want high oil prices, for instance lifting sanctions on Iranian and Russian oil. [1] https://www.economist.com/business/2025/02/06/donald-trump-loves-big-oil-does-big-oil-love-him-back https://www.economist.com/business/2025/02/06/donald-trump-l...
- gizajob 15d agoIt’s more like 2D chess, so within DJT’s comprehension.
- voakbasda 15d agoI don’t know why anyone gives Trump credit for things like this. He (like all elected officials for the past few decades) is a figurehead and has been manipulated by careerists at every step, who themselves are beholden to the lobbyists that grease the wheels of government.
- tencentshill 15d agoIt's not that complicated with him. He literally gets on the phone with CEOs and takes orders directly. But that only sticks until another competing interest talks to him.
- iso1631 15d agoYou reach him by running appropiate messages on fox news Like any senile octogenarian you want to do something, brainwash them to do your bidding and make it think it's their own choice
- nisegami 15d agoNon-US based producers too, I can already see the difference in my country's economic position.
- softwaredoug 15d agoYes its a rule in hell situation. Some folks are getting a larger share of a shrinking pie. I am unsure its by design or just idiocy. (Probably a mix of both).