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It seems one way Iran fights the US asymmetrically is by harming the Federal financial picture with endlessly higher rates + borrowing costs. If this keeps happ
by softwaredoug 22d ago
It seems one way Iran fights the US asymmetrically is by harming the Federal financial picture with endlessly higher rates + borrowing costs. If this keeps happening month-after-month, year-after-year, we're really going to feel the squeeze.
Treasury has already tried to reassure markets and failed
Add to this other trade war nonsense...
- iso1631 22d agoThis would not be happening if the USA had not launched an attack on Iran This was the desired effect though, as higher oil prices means more profit for US based oil producers. I'm sure that will trickle down any time now.
- disgruntledphd2 22d ago> This was the desired effect though Honestly, I think you're giving far too much credit to the current US government.
- gizajob 22d agoIt’s a simple calculation though and not talked about enough. USA went to war in Iraq 25 years ago thanks to the oilmen in charge at that time. For all the political bluster about Iran and gas prices, $100 oil makes them hugely more profit than $60 oil. Of course producers and shareholders of American oil companies want that extra free money. They’re not pumping oil out of the ground and keeping it at a low price just to be benevolent to the American consumer.
- toomuchtodo 22d agoI think that is a contributor, but the root cause of the Iran war was Netanyahu goading a simple person into it. The US military and intelligence community knew the risk of this, told everyone not to do it, and they did it anyway. (if one is some combination of unsophisticated, irrational, and vain, and in a position of power, they will eventually be exploited by someone more rational and sophisticated, imho)
- gizajob 22d agoThat’s correct but it’s multimodal. It might not have been the reason for getting involved in the first place but it does now seem like a reason for something happening every time the oil price starts to drop again.
- toomuchtodo 22d agoStrongly agree, there's alway nuance and complexity.
- wombat-man 22d agoI don't even really understand Israel's game plan here. Iran took a lot of damage but now they control the strait, they have a lot of leverage. Hard to know how it's going to shake out, but how is Israel better off now?
- toomuchtodo 22d agoThis was Israel’s last chance to strike on Iran using the US as the munition, because the next Congress and President wouldn’t and Netanyahu (76 years old as of this comment, close to end of male life expectancy) will only live or be in power for so long. Very similar to Putin (73 years old, as of this comment) making his move against Ukraine when he did. Light cone of potential outcomes and path dependency. “Old men pulling triggers out of ideology before they’re too weak to.” I argue that, in many ways, extended life expectancy has been a curse in this context. It has allowed unscrupulous people positions of power where great harm is incurred with limited repercussions (if any!), positions of power they would not be in if they had aged out sooner. You can only wait to vote them out, or wait for them to die if you cannot vote them out. Very unfortunate.
- iso1631 22d agoThey don't care about long term effects because they don't need to suffer them.
- nradov 22d agoIt's more complex than that. US crude oil extraction companies don't want prices to climb too high as longer term that destroys demand and encourages customers to find alternatives. Something in the $75–80/bbl range for WTI crude is probably optimal to maximize long-term industry profits.
- iso1631 22d agoThey can afford to let domestic prices increase more due to the political allies they have. When burning oil is subsidised by wind farms are banned that's a win-win for the oil companies.
- avidruntime 22d agoPersonally I think the hanlon's razor approach is an intellectually lazy thought terminating cliche that provides cover to people/groups who do act with malice. A US administration sympathetic to Russia stands to benefit from higher oil prices.
- josefritzishere 22d ago[dead]
- fpoling 22d agoRefineries in US are making even bigger profits. They even skip on maintenance running at 95% capacity non-stop.
- bluGill 22d agoFor now. They are well aware of the long picture. They know how long they can risk doing without maintenance, and will do it eventually. They are also well aware that EVs are coming and high fuel prices hurt them long term because people will switch and not come back. Someone else suggested they see $85/bbl as the ideal price. I don't know if that is true, but it seems reasonable.
- fpoling 22d agoEV is committing irrespectively of what refineries are doing at this point. The latest Chinese models with a reasonable range are cheaper to manufacture than ICE cars. So I can see why refineries want to get as much money as possible now before the massive switch to EV.
- bluGill 22d agoNo Chinese EVs in the US (yet)... This is a really complex optimization problem, but slowing EV adoption, which low gas prices help, is likely the better course for a few more years. Eventually just gouge the petrol users left is the most profit, but I don't think that has been reached yet.
- gruez 22d ago>This was the desired effect though, as higher oil prices means more profit for US based oil producers. I'm sure that will trickle down any time now. That's giving the Trump administration too much credit. Before the war there were pieces about how oil companies were doing worse under Trump than under Biden[1]. Of course, you could argue that the Iran war is Trump finally responding to oil companies, but given that it only started more than a year after he took power, it really makes you wonder whether Trump is bumbling along, or playing some 5d chess with the global oil market. On the flip side there's plenty of evidence that he doesn't want high oil prices, for instance lifting sanctions on Iranian and Russian oil. [1] https://www.economist.com/business/2025/02/06/donald-trump-loves-big-oil-does-big-oil-love-him-back https://www.economist.com/business/2025/02/06/donald-trump-l...
- gizajob 22d agoIt’s more like 2D chess, so within DJT’s comprehension.
- voakbasda 22d agoI don’t know why anyone gives Trump credit for things like this. He (like all elected officials for the past few decades) is a figurehead and has been manipulated by careerists at every step, who themselves are beholden to the lobbyists that grease the wheels of government.
- tencentshill 22d agoIt's not that complicated with him. He literally gets on the phone with CEOs and takes orders directly. But that only sticks until another competing interest talks to him.
- iso1631 22d agoYou reach him by running appropiate messages on fox news Like any senile octogenarian you want to do something, brainwash them to do your bidding and make it think it's their own choice
- nisegami 22d agoNon-US based producers too, I can already see the difference in my country's economic position.
- softwaredoug 22d agoYes its a rule in hell situation. Some folks are getting a larger share of a shrinking pie. I am unsure its by design or just idiocy. (Probably a mix of both).
- alangibson 22d agoIran said publicly that driving up costs in the USA to effect the coming elections is their strategy.
- bluGill 22d agoEven if they don't say that, it is the obvious thing to do. Elections are coming up in a few months. Already because of midterm elections the democrats were expected to gain seats (this is something you could predict the day after the 2024 elections before Trump took office again). The democrats are not so stupid as to not yell about gasoline prices in their advertisements - this is a big deal to a lot of people. Iran has a lot of power to affect gas prices (something they have long known) and so their best chance to harm Trump is to ensure the democrats win as many seats as possible. The real question is what happens after the elections. There is a lot happening in Iran and nobody can figure out which factions really are gaining power (we know who is the public voice of power, but not if they have real power)
- dietr1ch 22d agoand I'm not sure how much they need to do to drive up costs. During Covid the economy has started showing signs that the incentives are wrong and Trump 2 showed you can just buy government favours and tilt the field to your advantage.
- Haven880 21d agoCovid was early 2020, he lost too. Dems can just match it with 5K given approval comes from congress not EO. The congress will flip Nov 4. And congressional witch trials will be devastating in Jan 2027. If recession happens by then, congress can revoke SS protection after 2028. By then given worldwide mess and maybe AI havoc, I doubt we thinking about him more than our walmart cart. Sigh, a future that I am not looking forward to.
- Haven880 21d agoNo need month-after-month. My groceries and gas yesterday already look like horror movie. And with that I still got a job. That's the silver lining?