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Good here is in reference to the average crash statistics. Most drivers are safer than the average, because you can’t go below 0 and some people are really bad

by Retric 24d ago

Good here is in reference to the average crash statistics. Most drivers are safer than the average, because you can’t go below 0 and some people are really bad.

ryandrake 24d ago
I know someone who's been at fault in at least 12+ car accidents, and she keeps driving (as someone else put it you almost have to drive in the USA). There are colossally bad drivers out there and we don't yet have a viable system for keeping them off the road.
- GrinningFool 24d ago
  How is she able to get insurance coverage?
  - BugsJustFindMe 24d ago
    1) What makes you think she has insurance coverage? 2) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Actuarial_science https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Actuarial_science
    - GrinningFool 24d ago
      With that many accidents, I'd assume bankruptcy if she didn't. re: 2) yes that was the point. She'd have to be paying multiple thousands in an assigned-risk pool policy with that record of at-faults.
      - jakzurr 24d ago
        Unfortunately, if you make (or are born with) enough resources, you might skate for quite a while. Eventually you might get a lot of fines and even some jail time, but afterwards, some people just take their chances and drive anyway.
      - phainopepla2 24d ago
        An estimated 1 in 6 drivers in Los Angeles don't have insurance. I know at least a dozen people who have been hit by uninsured drivers, and that's not counting hit and runs, who probably are also mostly uninsured. The victim's own insurance will pay if they have uninsured motorist coverage (you'd be a fool not to have it, living in LA at least), but there is basically no punishment for the uninsured driver, assuming a fender-bender. The police won't do anything. The insurance companies don't think it's worth their time to try to squeeze out something from someone who probably has almost nothing anyway.
        darkmarmot 23d ago
        Here in Washington state, it's a fine of over $500 to not be able to present insurance proof on demand when pulled over...
        bookofjoe 23d ago
        2002-2004 [most recent I could find] California Department of Insurance (CDI) study showed Los Angeles County’s uninsured driver rate at 24.0% (2002), 23.4% (2003), and 23.7% (2004). https://www.insurance.ca.gov/ https://www.insurance.ca.gov/
  - nradov 24d ago
    Most US states have some sort of assigned risk pool which makes minimum coverage available to even the worst drivers, as long as they still have a valid license. (I'm not claiming that this is necessarily a good public policy, just pointing out that it exists.) https://insurify.com/car-insurance/knowledge/assigned-risk-auto-insurance/ https://insurify.com/car-insurance/knowledge/assigned-risk-a...
    - hamdingers 24d ago
      I'm happy to make the claim this is terrible policy that literally kills people. Every dollar spent on this should go toward transit funding instead.
      - saltcured 24d ago
        But, when the (sad) alternative is that person keeps driving without insurance and the unfortunate victims are left with the full bill, I think the absurd insurance may be better than not?
        Gigachad 24d ago
        Surely this problem is mostly solvable with ALPRs now. Every plate is attached to an owner and the insurance status can be checked. There's the situation where an uninsured driver is using someone elses car, but that's at least most uninsured drivers taken off the road.
  - labcomputer 24d ago
    Strangely enough... Most US states do not require insurance. Yes, really! In almost every state, you may post a bond in lieu of insurance, for an amount as low as $35,000!
    - cucumber3732842 22d ago
      This is like saying "you can build a nuclear power plant anywhere, zoning be damned" because it's regulated at the state level and they aren't legally bound to honor municipal zoning. It's not lying, but it's basically the derivative of lying because it's only true in the most technical sense. Most of those state processes are a) reserved for businesses b) discretionary and they exercise their discretion not to approve anyone. If it was something that was practically doable every 200k HHI household that drives old cars and has good health insurance would take advantage of them.
BugsJustFindMe 24d ago
You cannot measure driver goodness (skill and vigilance) by looking at crash statistics, because crashes are definitively circumstantial. Most very clearly bad/dangerous/unskilled/unvigilant operations of automobiles do not lead to crashes.
- Retric 24d ago
  Population level statistics let you look for statistical aberrations that you can’t detect at the individual level. Further suppose you define “good driving” as a set of behaviors but failed to include narcolepsy or similar medical conditions in your definition, then some of your “good” drivers would represent a significant risk to the general public. Thus the actual criteria the defines good driver behavior is accidents.
  - BugsJustFindMe 23d ago
    Why would I fail to include driving with untreated narcolepsy in my definition? > as a set of behaviors I think you're thinking about "set" and "behaviors" incorrectly here. The definition wouldn't need to state "and doesn't fall asleep", because abstractions like "being attentive" and "anticipating things that might go wrong" already cover that.
    - Retric 23d ago
      > Why would I fail to include driving with untreated narcolepsy in my definition? It’s an illiterate example not a literal one. The point is trying to state the full set of behaviors that represent safe driving will fail. > The definition wouldn't need to state "and doesn't fall asleep", because abstractions like "being attentive" and "anticipating things that might go wrong" already cover that. And here you failed, “Being attentive” is a proxy for the behavior you want not inherently valuable. Information saturation also results in accidents, though this is more commonly recognized in aviation the same is true of driving. Specificity is required not just platitudes.
      - 23d ago
saalweachter 24d ago
It looks like the median/mode is 1-2 car accidents (50% of drivers), and the average is 3-4. 25% of drivers have no accidents (as far as insurance companies are concerned, ie, no claims or police reports). I'm curious how this looks with various ways of normalizing for amount driven; is that no-accident crowd the quartile of drivers who don't drive very much? The biggest factor in being in the opposite group (the 10% of drivers with 50% of accidents) is "drive all the time, commercially or otherwise".

by Retric 24d ago

Good here is in reference to the average crash statistics. Most drivers are safer than the average, because you can’t go below 0 and some people are really bad.

ryandrake 24d ago

I know someone who's been at fault in at least 12+ car accidents, and she keeps driving (as someone else put it you almost have to drive in the USA). There are colossally bad drivers out there and we don't yet have a viable system for keeping them off the road.

GrinningFool 24d ago
How is she able to get insurance coverage?
- BugsJustFindMe 24d ago
  1) What makes you think she has insurance coverage? 2) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Actuarial_science https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Actuarial_science
  - GrinningFool 24d ago
    With that many accidents, I'd assume bankruptcy if she didn't. re: 2) yes that was the point. She'd have to be paying multiple thousands in an assigned-risk pool policy with that record of at-faults.
    - jakzurr 24d ago
      Unfortunately, if you make (or are born with) enough resources, you might skate for quite a while. Eventually you might get a lot of fines and even some jail time, but afterwards, some people just take their chances and drive anyway.
    - phainopepla2 24d ago
      An estimated 1 in 6 drivers in Los Angeles don't have insurance. I know at least a dozen people who have been hit by uninsured drivers, and that's not counting hit and runs, who probably are also mostly uninsured. The victim's own insurance will pay if they have uninsured motorist coverage (you'd be a fool not to have it, living in LA at least), but there is basically no punishment for the uninsured driver, assuming a fender-bender. The police won't do anything. The insurance companies don't think it's worth their time to try to squeeze out something from someone who probably has almost nothing anyway.
      - darkmarmot 23d ago
        Here in Washington state, it's a fine of over $500 to not be able to present insurance proof on demand when pulled over...
      - bookofjoe 23d ago
        2002-2004 [most recent I could find] California Department of Insurance (CDI) study showed Los Angeles County’s uninsured driver rate at 24.0% (2002), 23.4% (2003), and 23.7% (2004). https://www.insurance.ca.gov/ https://www.insurance.ca.gov/
- nradov 24d ago
  Most US states have some sort of assigned risk pool which makes minimum coverage available to even the worst drivers, as long as they still have a valid license. (I'm not claiming that this is necessarily a good public policy, just pointing out that it exists.) https://insurify.com/car-insurance/knowledge/assigned-risk-auto-insurance/ https://insurify.com/car-insurance/knowledge/assigned-risk-a...
  - hamdingers 24d ago
    I'm happy to make the claim this is terrible policy that literally kills people. Every dollar spent on this should go toward transit funding instead.
    - saltcured 24d ago
      But, when the (sad) alternative is that person keeps driving without insurance and the unfortunate victims are left with the full bill, I think the absurd insurance may be better than not?
      - Gigachad 24d ago
        Surely this problem is mostly solvable with ALPRs now. Every plate is attached to an owner and the insurance status can be checked. There's the situation where an uninsured driver is using someone elses car, but that's at least most uninsured drivers taken off the road.
- labcomputer 24d ago
  Strangely enough... Most US states do not require insurance. Yes, really! In almost every state, you may post a bond in lieu of insurance, for an amount as low as $35,000!
  - cucumber3732842 22d ago
    This is like saying "you can build a nuclear power plant anywhere, zoning be damned" because it's regulated at the state level and they aren't legally bound to honor municipal zoning. It's not lying, but it's basically the derivative of lying because it's only true in the most technical sense. Most of those state processes are a) reserved for businesses b) discretionary and they exercise their discretion not to approve anyone. If it was something that was practically doable every 200k HHI household that drives old cars and has good health insurance would take advantage of them.

BugsJustFindMe 24d ago

You cannot measure driver goodness (skill and vigilance) by looking at crash statistics, because crashes are definitively circumstantial. Most very clearly bad/dangerous/unskilled/unvigilant operations of automobiles do not lead to crashes.

Retric 24d ago
Population level statistics let you look for statistical aberrations that you can’t detect at the individual level. Further suppose you define “good driving” as a set of behaviors but failed to include narcolepsy or similar medical conditions in your definition, then some of your “good” drivers would represent a significant risk to the general public. Thus the actual criteria the defines good driver behavior is accidents.
- BugsJustFindMe 23d ago
  Why would I fail to include driving with untreated narcolepsy in my definition? > as a set of behaviors I think you're thinking about "set" and "behaviors" incorrectly here. The definition wouldn't need to state "and doesn't fall asleep", because abstractions like "being attentive" and "anticipating things that might go wrong" already cover that.
  - Retric 23d ago
    > Why would I fail to include driving with untreated narcolepsy in my definition? It’s an illiterate example not a literal one. The point is trying to state the full set of behaviors that represent safe driving will fail. > The definition wouldn't need to state "and doesn't fall asleep", because abstractions like "being attentive" and "anticipating things that might go wrong" already cover that. And here you failed, “Being attentive” is a proxy for the behavior you want not inherently valuable. Information saturation also results in accidents, though this is more commonly recognized in aviation the same is true of driving. Specificity is required not just platitudes.
    - 23d ago

saalweachter 24d ago

It looks like the median/mode is 1-2 car accidents (50% of drivers), and the average is 3-4. 25% of drivers have no accidents (as far as insurance companies are concerned, ie, no claims or police reports). I'm curious how this looks with various ways of normalizing for amount driven; is that no-accident crowd the quartile of drivers who don't drive very much? The biggest factor in being in the opposite group (the 10% of drivers with 50% of accidents) is "drive all the time, commercially or otherwise".