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The implication from their last couple of published articles[1][2] is that they think they’ve achieved “recursive self improvement”. [1] https://openai.com/ind
by chilmers 23d ago
The implication from their last couple of published articles[1][2] is that they think they’ve achieved “recursive self improvement”.
[1] https://openai.com/index/research-acceleration-view-inside-openai/ https://openai.com/index/research-acceleration-view-inside-o...
[2] https://openai.com/index/an-alien-mind/ https://openai.com/index/an-alien-mind/
- 10xDev 23d agoCompute will always be the bottleneck even if this were true.
- Miner49er 23d agoEventually recursive self-improvement includes reducing bottlenecks.
- 10xDev 23d agoEventually the bottleneck might be people themselves.
- ccozan 23d agoImprobably, the real bottleneck is energy.
- glenstein 23d agoWhich is to say, scalable and open-ended capability of ramping up physical infrastructure. I don't know that that's achievable yet. Though the era of increasingly advanced and automated robotics seems to be around the corner which could create a cycle, vicious or virtuous depending on how you feel about it.
- Fordec 23d agoIf humans can figure out to optimize to circumvent bottlenecks, I have no doubt each new bottleneck will also get routed around, just now automated.
- dakolli 23d agoHow do you automate the mines to get the raw materials to make the compute from, and build additional fabs that take a almost a decade to stand up. You're actually delusional.
- Fordec 23d agoHello good sir from the 1700s pre-industrial revolution who doesn't think that mines and factories can be automated.
- dakolli 23d agoThe factories that supply the equipment, maintain the equipment, the energy inputs, the financials of those mines are not automated. People on hackernews are actually some of the dumbest people on the internet. This place is worse than lesswrong.
- scott_weber 23d agoThe question of whether something can be automated is distinct from the question of whether it is currently automated. Things can can be automated may transition to being automated in practice in the future as technology improves and investment deepens.
- a2ff6eeb0 23d agohttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lights_out_(manufacturing) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lights_out_(manufacturing) Scroll down to the existing examples section.
- 7373737373 23d agoSome mines are already heavily automated: https://youtube.com/watch?v=_Z9w-mUoUsY https://youtube.com/watch?v=_Z9w-mUoUsY https://youtube.com/watch?v=SRuht0QIprs https://youtube.com/watch?v=SRuht0QIprs
- mrbungie 23d ago
- monster_truck 23d agoBased on the leaps in local inference speed in the past month, which have been absurd, I'm p confident we're going to whiplash from compute constrained to storage constrained. Bit apples to oranges, but it reminds me of all the fiber we installed in the late 90s, certain that per-strand capacity increases were years or decades out, only to get massively rugged
- Fordec 23d agoI expect the investments into AI driven mathematic discoveries that underpin compression efficiency will be a key investment area. Particularly at the data center scale rather than per device or per file level.
- xtracto 23d agopi-fs will solve all our data compression problems.
- monster_truck 23d agoIt's not going to be enough. The naive approach of a project I've been working on was pushing >10gbps over the local network, after a ton of work I got it back down under 1... and now it's processing so much more shit that I'm almost past 5 again! It compresses at >3:1 but the latency hit isn't suitable. I get the impression the only reason there is renewed interest in photonics is because DCs are simply out of room (and power) to rack more servers and switches.
- Fordec 23d agoI 100% agree with your impression. For a good while to come there's going to be a bunch of Jevons Paradox to all of this, but adoption of architectural changes like that photonics adoption is exactly the type of adaption to circumvent bottlenecks I'm referring to. We're going to hit hundreds of bottlenecks and each one will inevitably breed new approaches and technology directions. And the forcing function won't be talking about them, but implementing them, seeing who wins and taking lessons.
- hgoel 23d agoAs a statement of fact divorced from context, this is of course true, but it's worth putting it in context of what small-medium scale models have been achieving recently. Many of the most recent releases from Chinese labs are almost on par with trillion parameter models from less than a year ago (edit: despite being small enough to usably run on prosumer hardware). It seems clear parameter efficiency can still be improved dramatically. In which case, maybe we don't need as much compute as we might expect. I hesitate to say "to reach a singularity" because it's kind of hard to define how that works out. Even intelligence probably hits some scaling limits eventually (e.g. speed of light related restrictions on how far it can scale, or how quickly it can expand).
- lijok 23d agoAnd the goalposts move again
- noir_lord 23d agoRecursive self improvement of their upcoming IPO value maybe. They are fluffy PR pieces otherwise.
- piloto_ciego 23d agoHow can you possible say this sort of thing in context of what looks like a millenium prize being solved. I swear there's nobody blinder than those who won't see.
- deleted 23d ago[deleted]
- samrus 23d agoYou have to look at the incentives
- FallCheeta7373 23d agoIncentives are one thing, even adjusting for them it's huge, and I don't understand this incentive play for only openai, academics have perverse incentives too, to overreport, overclaim, publication bias etc why are we scrutinizing AI industry to such high degree when they have demonstrated capability and often times are off by a model release at worst.
- altcognito 23d agoI swear to god, people would look at the successes of Xerox palo alto and just shrug and say - "yeah, but I mean, this is all marketing"
- piloto_ciego 23d agoThis is what I keep saying, and it feels like I'm taking crazy pills here! Is nobody else astounded by this?
- 21d ago
- camel-cdr 23d agoI found this post interesting in that reguard: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/thXohzXrWCA2EhZCH/mateusz-baginski-s-shortform?commentId=Y8aRZdBG6oqXPhP6Y https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/thXohzXrWCA2EhZCH/mateusz-ba...
- sensitivekt9q3 22d agoIs it? The first article says they’re on-track to building an automated AI researcher by March 2028. So they haven’t achieved RSI yet, I would think?