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Until you can buy oil without dollars. This was an explicit agreement called the Petrodollar system, which was premised on the US navy securing international tr

Until you can buy oil without dollars. This was an explicit agreement called the Petrodollar system, which was premised on the US navy securing international trade. If the US navy proves unable to do that (and exhausts its arms and demonstrates unpreparedness for future conflicts) then the whole premise falls apart. You might also stop buying real estate if the government seems unstable and economy is poised to collapse. Good soybeans also depend on fuel prices and the continued flow of fertilizer...

disdegeneration 21d ago
Until you find a more thrustworthy stewart of the international order. Everyone yells loudly about how bad the us is, but then you realize that the whole world voted with there feet that every other alternative is worse. The russians tried for years to write some replacement fiction into reality (BRICS) even though they would be the first to get shanked if the old great game returned. Its a absurd situation where empire cosplayers long for the times of "greatness" while struggling on even small "to real" acts ..
- anon84873628 21d ago
  China is "trustworthy" in the sense that they have obvious, rational, consistent motivations and very stable government.
  - nradov 21d ago
    China's government is "very stable" until it's not. As a society, China has a long history but the central government has essentially collapsed or experienced violent revolution in 1976, 1969, 1949, 1927, 1911, 1850, 1796, 1644, etc. Perhaps we have reached "the end of history" and the Chinese Communist Party will now maintain stable control forever. Or maybe it will all fall apart again in a few decades due to resource shortages or factional power struggles or a foreign war.
    - lumost 21d ago
      The loss of a succession strategy with an elderly leader at the helm seems like a major issue.
      - disdegeneration 21d ago
        [dead]
      - spwa4 21d ago
        ... for everyone, Chinese or not, except the elderly leader in question. Same for Russia.
      - tremon 20d ago
        That seems to be a recurring theme regardless of the country's economic system. We're two months away from seeing if the US still has a working succession strategy.
- k12sosse 21d ago
  Are we talking about Russia or the US in that last sentence, or is the ambiguity the point?
- kergonath 21d ago
  > Everyone yells loudly about how bad the us is, but then you realize that the whole world voted with there feet that every other alternative is worse. The main problem right now is that the US are not the US for which we voted with our feet. They are a worse alternative to the US that created the status quo (to their advantage obviously, but much of the world also benefitted from free trade and the lack of other world wars).
fmajid 21d ago
Or until you don't need to buy oil at all. China has reduced its consumption by 1.5M barrels/day this year alone.
- anon84873628 21d ago
  To nitpick, much of that is probably due to halting refining for export and drawing down reserves. But of course the point stands that they are rapidly electrifying and expanding renewable generation.
  - rapind 21d ago
    Also tons and tons of coal. Hopefully just a stopgap.
    - actionfromafar 21d ago
      Yeah, until they run out of coal.
      - leonidasrup 21d ago
        China has large coal reserves, enough for many decades. "China, the world’s largest coal consumer, has domestic reserves of coal to last the next 50 years, according to annual reserves data from the Ministry of Natural Resources cited by Bloomberg. At current rates of domestic production, China also has crude oil reserves that could last for at least 18 more years, according to the ministry" https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/China-Says-Its-Coal-Reserves-Will-Last-For-50-Years.html https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/China-Say... https://www.mining.com/web/china-has-enough-coal-reserves-to-last-another-five-decades/ https://www.mining.com/web/china-has-enough-coal-reserves-to...
        rafterydj 21d ago
        Wow. Only enough reserves to be measured in decades? Once it's gone it's gone. Genuine Carboniferous coal, one day a thousand years from now, might be a rare museum item! I have a habit of thinking about history in very long terms, and that just does not sit right with me. That kind of thinking (oh we have enough for decades, let it rip!) happens, and the decades pass, and time inevitably is less kind to the descendants of such decision makers.
leonidasrup 21d ago
"$20 Billion Oil Deals Paid in Chinese Yuan, US Dollar Left Out" https://watcher.guru/news/20-billion-oil-deals-paid-in-chinese-yuan-us-dollar-left-out https://watcher.guru/news/20-billion-oil-deals-paid-in-chine... "China and Saudi Arabia Settle First Oil Trade Using Digital Yuan" https://www.economywatch.com/china-and-saudi-arabia-settle-first-oil-trade-using-digital-yuan https://www.economywatch.com/china-and-saudi-arabia-settle-f...
kalx 21d ago
This isn’t true. You can buy oil with other currencies. It’s just that dollars are liquid. No pun intended.

disdegeneration 21d ago

Until you find a more thrustworthy stewart of the international order. Everyone yells loudly about how bad the us is, but then you realize that the whole world voted with there feet that every other alternative is worse. The russians tried for years to write some replacement fiction into reality (BRICS) even though they would be the first to get shanked if the old great game returned. Its a absurd situation where empire cosplayers long for the times of "greatness" while struggling on even small "to real" acts ..

anon84873628 21d ago
China is "trustworthy" in the sense that they have obvious, rational, consistent motivations and very stable government.
- nradov 21d ago
  China's government is "very stable" until it's not. As a society, China has a long history but the central government has essentially collapsed or experienced violent revolution in 1976, 1969, 1949, 1927, 1911, 1850, 1796, 1644, etc. Perhaps we have reached "the end of history" and the Chinese Communist Party will now maintain stable control forever. Or maybe it will all fall apart again in a few decades due to resource shortages or factional power struggles or a foreign war.
  - lumost 21d ago
    The loss of a succession strategy with an elderly leader at the helm seems like a major issue.
    - disdegeneration 21d ago
      [dead]
    - spwa4 21d ago
      ... for everyone, Chinese or not, except the elderly leader in question. Same for Russia.
    - tremon 20d ago
      That seems to be a recurring theme regardless of the country's economic system. We're two months away from seeing if the US still has a working succession strategy.
k12sosse 21d ago
Are we talking about Russia or the US in that last sentence, or is the ambiguity the point?
kergonath 21d ago
> Everyone yells loudly about how bad the us is, but then you realize that the whole world voted with there feet that every other alternative is worse. The main problem right now is that the US are not the US for which we voted with our feet. They are a worse alternative to the US that created the status quo (to their advantage obviously, but much of the world also benefitted from free trade and the lack of other world wars).

fmajid 21d ago

Or until you don't need to buy oil at all. China has reduced its consumption by 1.5M barrels/day this year alone.

anon84873628 21d ago
To nitpick, much of that is probably due to halting refining for export and drawing down reserves. But of course the point stands that they are rapidly electrifying and expanding renewable generation.
- rapind 21d ago
  Also tons and tons of coal. Hopefully just a stopgap.
  - actionfromafar 21d ago
    Yeah, until they run out of coal.
    - leonidasrup 21d ago
      China has large coal reserves, enough for many decades. "China, the world’s largest coal consumer, has domestic reserves of coal to last the next 50 years, according to annual reserves data from the Ministry of Natural Resources cited by Bloomberg. At current rates of domestic production, China also has crude oil reserves that could last for at least 18 more years, according to the ministry" https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/China-Says-Its-Coal-Reserves-Will-Last-For-50-Years.html https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/China-Say... https://www.mining.com/web/china-has-enough-coal-reserves-to-last-another-five-decades/ https://www.mining.com/web/china-has-enough-coal-reserves-to...
      - rafterydj 21d ago
        Wow. Only enough reserves to be measured in decades? Once it's gone it's gone. Genuine Carboniferous coal, one day a thousand years from now, might be a rare museum item! I have a habit of thinking about history in very long terms, and that just does not sit right with me. That kind of thinking (oh we have enough for decades, let it rip!) happens, and the decades pass, and time inevitably is less kind to the descendants of such decision makers.

leonidasrup 21d ago

"$20 Billion Oil Deals Paid in Chinese Yuan, US Dollar Left Out" https://watcher.guru/news/20-billion-oil-deals-paid-in-chinese-yuan-us-dollar-left-out https://watcher.guru/news/20-billion-oil-deals-paid-in-chine... "China and Saudi Arabia Settle First Oil Trade Using Digital Yuan" https://www.economywatch.com/china-and-saudi-arabia-settle-first-oil-trade-using-digital-yuan https://www.economywatch.com/china-and-saudi-arabia-settle-f...

kalx 21d ago

This isn’t true. You can buy oil with other currencies. It’s just that dollars are liquid. No pun intended.