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> For any of his posts that I read, while there are numbers thrown around, the numbers don't actually connect to a coherent argument. In many cases, as we saw a
by simonw 1mo ago
> For any of his posts that I read, while there are numbers thrown around, the numbers don't actually connect to a coherent argument. In many cases, as we saw above, the numbers don't even really support his argument (such as an MAU decline in Facebook causing Meta financial problems which would then cause Meta to spuriously insert AI in places it doesn't belong). I suspect he's relying on people's eyes glazing over when they see numbers and just not thinking about what the numbers mean.
A frustrating thing about Ed Zitron is that he sometimes breaks news - gets hold of leaked numbers that nobody else has, for example - but he then wraps those numbers in his own extremely biased commentary. This makes it much harder to evaluate how credible the new information is.
- mdmxkxkxndn 1mo ago[dead]
- 0x20cowboy 1mo ago“Because Danny had a mortgage and a boss to answer to … The guilty don't feel guilty, they learn not to“
- dgellow 1mo agoI don’t understand the issue, cannot you ignore his commentary and just look at the numbers?
- simonuv 1mo ago[flagged]
- simonw 1mo agoA shill for the AI industry wouldn't spend four solid years writing about how inherently insecure their products are. https://simonwillison.net/tags/prompt-injection/ https://simonwillison.net/tags/prompt-injection/
- SpicyLemonZest 1mo agoThe problem is that some numbers genuinely require a critical eye. If a source tells you that the OpenAI CFO told employees July ARR exceeded the Q2 total, there are a number of serious questions to be raised on how these numbers were calculated and what the point of such a confusing comparison is supposed to be. (I think the answer has to be that ChatGPT wrote the CFO’s script, no human financial expert would think to compare an annualized figure to the sum of three specific months.) But it’s hard to analyze the facts appropriately when they’re relayed by a guy who tells you that it’s all a giant scam and infers the worst possible answer to all the questions.
- dcre 1mo agoYou're broadly right but I think you're dead wrong about the CFO statement — I think "July revenue alone exceeded all of Q2" is an extremely normal thing to say when revenue is going up at an insane rate. For example, if it was not true that June revenue exceeded March-May revenue, the point would be to show how their revenue growth has accelerated.
- tovej 1mo agoIf he meant that he would've said July revenue, not ARR. ARR means it's multiplied by twelve.
- dcre 1mo agoShe, and we do not have the direct quote. It's a paraphrase, and the report can't seem to decide whether they're talking about revenue or growth. If she was talking about growth, "the ARR growth in July exceeded the ARR growth of Q2" is perfectly coherent. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/29/openai-cfo-sarah-friar-tells-employees-arr-in-july-topped-all-of-q2.html https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/29/openai-cfo-sarah-friar-tells... OP is way overinterpreting something we don't even have verbatim in a way that unfortunately resembles what they're rightly accusing Zitron of.
- tovej 1mo ago
- simonw 1mo agoI'm not financially literate enough to trust my own analysis of the numbers. Ideally I'd like commentary from someone like Bloomberg's Matt Levine, a genuine expert in financial matters who is also extremely good at explaining them in terms non-finance-professionals like me can understand.
- dgellow 1mo agoFair, if you’re looking for reliable financial commentary Matt Levine is indeed the goat. Zitron is more like an old school blogger, with a very aggressive and corrosive style. My approach for internal documents leaked by Zitron is just to wait to see if Bloomberg picks up on the info or not.
- jdgoesmarching 1mo agoI didn’t even see the OP comment as a criticism of his analyses, just that he likes to do this rhetorical trick of dropping in numbers that are, at best, tangential to his point to prop up the argument’s credibility. Sometimes he does this in the middle of a real financial analysis which is even more maddening and confusing.
- iamacyborg 1mo agoJohn Authers newsletter is also well worth subscribing to on Bloomberg (it’s free).
- dcre 1mo agoNo, you can't. The numbers are genuinely confusing, and Zitron actively works to make them more confusing rather than explaining what they mean because he needs them to sound as bad as possible. He also buries the numbers in thousands of words of prose!
- JumpCrisscross 1mo agoNo, particularly not when he manipulates and selectively discloses them.
- cyanydeez 1mo ago[flagged]
- catlover76 1mo ago[dead]
- toomuchtodo 1mo agoAs someone else mentioned, ignore Ed’s personality and look solely at the balance sheets and capital analysis. Regardless of delivery, the math doesn’t math. It's wild to me how much Ed is criticized while pathological liars like Musk and Altman are glossed over. (Disclosure: I pay for Zitron's publication for the capital figures and exclusives he gets his hands on, I do not pay attention to his interviews, we are fact finding, if he wants to perform, I am not bothered, I've seen the performers on the other side, just keep the facts coming for ground truth)
- aleph_minus_one 1mo ago> while pathological liars like Musk and Altman are glossed over. You seem to live in a bubble where these people are worshipped ... :-(
- toomuchtodo 1mo agogestures broadly at HN and the tech industry https://www.ycombinator.com/blog/ai-startupschool https://www.ycombinator.com/blog/ai-startupschool I am a realist, I understand the cult of personality, etc. Just like I wouldn't spend a moment trying to talk a Catholic out of their faith. I have no feelings on the topic, this can only last so long based on capital trajectories.
- aleph_minus_one 1mo ago> gestures broadly at HN and the tech industry For me, HN ist rather some kind of counterweight/counterbubble where not everybody is insanely critical and cynical about Elon Musk and Sam Altman. :-)
- toomuchtodo 1mo agoI respect the bubble here for what it is. You've found your people, I hope it helps. I am a polite guest in this tribe's town square. Edit: I am not asking for anyone to be overly critical of those I mention. Facts and evidence are objective, feelings are subjective. Find Your People - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44074017 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44074017 - May 2025 (283 comments)
- iNerdier 1mo agoDidn’t the FT both vet his numbers and also publish on the same leak?
- minimaxir 1mo agoThere was a major material difference between the FT and Ed's post: FT explicitly noted that OpenAI has $billions in cash on hand (which is relevant if you are analyzing data about solvency), while Ed's post obfuscated that data point.
- dcre 1mo agoYes, and his post about the exact same data was noticeably more confusing and less illuminating than theirs because he was primarily concerned to point to whatever the biggest number was and go "Ooh, big number!" https://www.wheresyoured.at/exclusive-openai-financials/ https://www.wheresyoured.at/exclusive-openai-financials/ https://www.ft.com/content/e15b0d7e-ff6b-4f16-ba7a-4068feddb828 https://www.ft.com/content/e15b0d7e-ff6b-4f16-ba7a-4068feddb... (https://archive.ph/pAIEa https://archive.ph/pAIEa)
- bogzz 1mo ago[flagged]
- enraged_camel 1mo agoIf you find derision and extreme cynicism "soothing", the problem may be with you, rather than those who are optimistic about AI.
- GlacierFox 1mo ago[flagged]
- simonw 1mo agoRight, you're very much his target audience.
- GlacierFox 1mo ago[flagged]
- simonw 1mo agoI don't follow.
- GlacierFox 1mo agoYou said "Right, you're very much his target audience." I read that as a bit of a snarky jibe. You implied you weren't his target audience so asked if you're on the other side of it - deep in AI psychosis.
- simonw 1mo agoI don't think "not being Ed Zitron's target audience" works as a useful definition of AI psychosis.
- 1mo ago
- melagonster 1mo ago>He doesn't count February 1-10, counts March 1-10 twice, counts August 21-October 21 as one month instead of two, and doesn't count October 21-November 1. Seriously, I expected more slight wrong before I read the article. Why do people trust someone who can't add numbers correctly to make predictions?
- jesterson 1mo ago> gets hold of leaked numbers that nobody else has, for example - but he then wraps those numbers in his own extremely biased commentary. You can think of yourself and draw your own conclusions (or we have completely lost the aptitude since "ai" started off?). You don't have to agree with Ed, or even follow his conclusions.
- simonw 1mo agoLike I said, "This makes it much harder to evaluate how credible the new information is."
- jesterson 1mo agoI still fail to see the problem here. If you disagree with numbers / conclusions he makes, I would be happy to hear/read your opinion on that (no sarcasm at all). It makes me a bit concerned seeing how many people say oh he is this and that so I wouldn't even read or help him. For G'ds sake, what happened to healthy discussions? If you disagree, lets just share opinions and let people judge. But if we just recuse ourselves from it, it will let opinions unchallenged.