6 ms·

I get that statistics can be manipulated but... https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-pmi-reports/pmi/july/ https://www.ismwo

I get that statistics can be manipulated but... https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-pmi-reports/pmi/july/ https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/... > Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in July for the seventh consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report. > The report was issued today by Susan Spence, MBA, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. > “The Manufacturing PMI® registered 55.6 percent in July, 2.3 percentage points above the June figure and the highest reading since May 2022 (55.9 percent). The overall economy continued in expansion for the 21st month in a row.

edgyquant 1mo ago
[flagged]
- atoav 1mo ago
  Really? I know people in the hardware space for whom the tariffs have been an unmitigated disaster. They had to go through a lot to not lose their customer base outside the US. I have seen many US-people with businesses swearing about that admin, especially the smaller ones.
  - A_D_E_P_T 1mo ago
    Uh, I'm in manufacturing in the US and EU. Can confirm the tariffs are a total disaster. It's increasingly difficult and expensive to ship raw materials and components to the US! "Just find US suppliers." It's not that simple. There are a lot of things that simply aren't made in the US. (The majority of tool steels, all titanium alloys, everything made of tungsten, and I could go on all day.) Besides, dealing with the Chinese is like life on easy mode. Handshake agreements are always respected. In most cases service and support are 24/7. Importantly for QoL, they never make you fill out a dozen forms, pay for a D&B report, "let's get on a Zoom call to touch base," and all of that nonsense. American B2B firms aren't really into customer service, as a general rule, I think.
    - themaninthedark 1mo ago
      Until that handshake deal isn't respected despite you doing everything right i.e. know supplier, know broker. https://youtu.be/as2KoDtsS_0?is=3H1TVc2PZPbGLdPK https://youtu.be/as2KoDtsS_0?is=3H1TVc2PZPbGLdPK
- esseph 1mo ago
  Everybody I know in construction, especially larger scale, is losing their minds because nobody can bid on jobs without risking loosing their shirts. Tariffs could hit somewhere between the bid and the time the job starts and could increase material costs by 150-200% and could cause more delays. It's been like this for 2 years or so and they're losing their minds.
  - shoopadoop 1mo ago
    Tariffs have been hell for marina renovation work I'm associated with. Things paid for well in advance have exploded way past their budgets thanks to all the raw material costing so much more. Thanks to Trump. Even the MAGA folks I have to deal with are bitter about it. They still voted for Trump but they can't deny the cause and effect. I think they'd still vote for Trump though. I don't understand how they manage to deal with the cognitive dissonance.
    - realo 1mo ago
      Some kind of "derangement syndrome "? It's funny... laugh.
      - solid_fuel 1mo ago
        Turns out, the real “TDS” was in the morons who thought a treasonous conman would fix the country this whole time. Almost like his critics were fucking right.
        SadErn 1mo ago
        Turns out all the overly political people are annoying. I can't imagine having a conversation with someone like this for more than five minutes.
        esseph 1mo ago
        Like the people running the country?
- gyanchawdhary 1mo ago
  it's remarkable how much presentation can distort ppls judgment .. they'll actually admire narcissistic behaviour as long as its wrapped in a polished and presentable package (the ex PM of cananda) and yet label the less polished, ill mannered person with common sense as the narcissist ..
  - switchbak 1mo ago
    Who exactly is this ill mannered counterpart to Trudeau? Please tell me you’re not talking about Trump here? Trudeau was a colossal cluster f of a prime minister, but he’s nowhere in the same ballpark.
    - gyanchawdhary 1mo ago
      really ? one resigned after turning his country into a dumping ground through disastrous immigration policies .. while the other restricted immigration .. put his own citizens first .. and generally shook up a complacent West .. and you think ther are not in the same ballpark? Let me ask you, in what ballpark would you put Trump in ? up there wkth Hitler ? Stalin ? You would wouldn’t you ?
- thiht 1mo ago
  > Every founder I know in manufacturing is thankful for this admin Are they MAGA?
- driverdan 1mo ago
  What are they manufacturing? It must not involve any metal. Due to the tariffs on metals manufacturing costs have increased significantly for anyone using them.
  - MisterTea 1mo ago
    As someone who grew up in a machine shop, still in manufacturing, and have my own hobby shop, its gross how much raw materials cost. I can get finished parts shipped from China cheaper then I can buy the raw material here in the US. I almost wept looking at over $500 for a simple 2x4 foot sheet of 1/2 inch thick 6061 aluminum. Inconel is through the roof and I know a few aerospace clients who are MONTHS behind due to shortages and bonkers material costs. Like holding up the military supply chain which is ludicrous. This admin is brain dead.
    - sandworm101 1mo ago
      It is going to get worse. Iron/steel and aluminum are some of the most common elements on the planet. They are literally everywhere. The cost is in the energy for production, and to a lesser extent transport. But energy is not only going to become more expensive but actually hard to get (thank you again AI). Canada has energy, from empty land for wind/solar/hydro, to oil, to enormous piles of uranium ore. That is not an enemy worth making.
      - nine_k 1mo ago
        I remember people taking about smelting aluminum as a way to put overproduced solar electricity to a good use. Would come in very handy now.
        sandworm101 1mo ago
        It would, but smelting is not a process that likes being started and stopped. Once furnaces and other bits and pieces are up to temperature they want to stay there. Thermal expansion is a thing, but also letting them all cool down is throwing energy away. And iron workers don't like sitting around "on call" waiting for energy prices to swing enough to justify going to work. Same too with customers. The people buying bulk metal need is when they need it. They don't want to wait around, literally, for the winds to change.
- conception 1mo ago
  Then every founder you know has no idea how policy should be done. There’s a difference between having a pro manufacturing policy and applying tariffs and trade wars ad hoc based on how you feel slighted and giving no warning to any businesses nor having any sort of stability to your plans for any sort of appreciable time in the future. Also, the whole announced news on Friday changed it on the next week so that whoever is betting on the stock market can make some money also is not great for a pro manufacturing base. It’s all a grift and your buddies are dupes to believe in it.
  - edgyquant 1mo ago
    Policy is about trade offs, you can disagree if they’re worth it but that isn’t what people do. They instead dig in their heels and pretend policies designed to incentivize local production don’t work because local production doesn’t exist without them. That’s the point of them, and it takes time.
- deleted 1mo ago
  [deleted]
- archonis 1mo ago
  What's your sample size?
- lobsterthief 1mo ago
  What’s your sample size? Unless it’s 30+ politically-neutral manufacturing founders, you’re citing anecdotal evidence.
  - dominotw 1mo ago
    why aren't these comments on top comment on this post saying this with no evidence "Manufacturing is still declining, not returning and a man "
    - solid_fuel 1mo ago
      Probably because manufacturing is still declining, not returning.
lawsthro0532 1mo ago
PMI is a sentiment survey of 400 manufacturing executives. Vibes only.
- dominotw 1mo ago
  ironic given top comment on this thread is pure vibes. interesting you chose to repond with this "vibes" comment to this instead.
  - Dylan16807 1mo ago
    While the top comment is pretty vibey, it's not presenting itself as firm statistics.
- pinkmuffinere 1mo ago
  Are you saying PMI is a survey of 400 manufacturing executives about the status of manufacturing, and you don't think it carries meaningful signal about the status of manufacturing? I wonder what you think _would_ carry meaningful signal, if you're not satisfied by asking the people that are doing said manufacturing?
  - deleted 1mo ago
    [deleted]
  - samrus 1mo ago
    Hard numbers. Like output, or investment made. Like number of cars, tons of steel, etc. Things that actually reflect reality
    - lostlogin 1mo ago
      [flagged]
  - sxyuan 1mo ago
    Executives aren't exactly the ones doing all the manufacturing. If you want to look at employment in manufacturing, the most you can say is that's it's stabilized after the first year of this administration: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1XUKx https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1XUKx
epolanski 1mo ago
Manufacturing has never really declined in US, not in absolute terms. It's simply facing the same fate of agriculture: automation. Politicians want to sell to people they can bring back manufacturing jobs, but it's not like in china they making cars or batteries or chips by hand. It's all automated everywhere.
- californical 1mo ago
  Have you seen that SmarterEveryDay video about trying to make a grill brush in the US? That obviously would’ve been possible in the US 50 years ago but is borderline impossible today because every manufacturer laughs in your face and just says “make it in China, we can’t help you”
  - t-writescode 1mo ago
    This is the most recent of those videos: https://youtu.be/vS6HEes8daw https://youtu.be/vS6HEes8daw (edit: seriously? Who downvotes this. The preceeding comment mentions a video, I share the source, wtf. Don't shoot the messenger.)
    - throwitaway222 1mo ago
      Paid actors mostly.
- michaelt 1mo ago
  > Manufacturing has never really declined in US, not in absolute terms. Is a factory making 2GB RAM chips twice as productive as one making 1GB RAM sticks? Because if manufacturing output is merely constant while chipmakers’ output has skyrocketed (on paper, as PCs went from 32MB RAM to 32GB over a few decades), other manufacturing output must have fallen a great deal.
- throwthrowrow 1mo ago
  > it's not like china they making cars or batteries or chips by hand That was true a while back but less so now. Chinese companies are moving to "dark factories", which can function autonomously without humans (hence no need for lighting). https://www.reddit.com/r/ArtificialInteligence/comments/1jci0bv/dark_factories_fully_automated_with_ai_robotics/ https://www.reddit.com/r/ArtificialInteligence/comments/1jci...

edgyquant 1mo ago

[flagged]

atoav 1mo ago
Really? I know people in the hardware space for whom the tariffs have been an unmitigated disaster. They had to go through a lot to not lose their customer base outside the US. I have seen many US-people with businesses swearing about that admin, especially the smaller ones.
- A_D_E_P_T 1mo ago
  Uh, I'm in manufacturing in the US and EU. Can confirm the tariffs are a total disaster. It's increasingly difficult and expensive to ship raw materials and components to the US! "Just find US suppliers." It's not that simple. There are a lot of things that simply aren't made in the US. (The majority of tool steels, all titanium alloys, everything made of tungsten, and I could go on all day.) Besides, dealing with the Chinese is like life on easy mode. Handshake agreements are always respected. In most cases service and support are 24/7. Importantly for QoL, they never make you fill out a dozen forms, pay for a D&B report, "let's get on a Zoom call to touch base," and all of that nonsense. American B2B firms aren't really into customer service, as a general rule, I think.
  - themaninthedark 1mo ago
    Until that handshake deal isn't respected despite you doing everything right i.e. know supplier, know broker. https://youtu.be/as2KoDtsS_0?is=3H1TVc2PZPbGLdPK https://youtu.be/as2KoDtsS_0?is=3H1TVc2PZPbGLdPK
esseph 1mo ago
Everybody I know in construction, especially larger scale, is losing their minds because nobody can bid on jobs without risking loosing their shirts. Tariffs could hit somewhere between the bid and the time the job starts and could increase material costs by 150-200% and could cause more delays. It's been like this for 2 years or so and they're losing their minds.
- shoopadoop 1mo ago
  Tariffs have been hell for marina renovation work I'm associated with. Things paid for well in advance have exploded way past their budgets thanks to all the raw material costing so much more. Thanks to Trump. Even the MAGA folks I have to deal with are bitter about it. They still voted for Trump but they can't deny the cause and effect. I think they'd still vote for Trump though. I don't understand how they manage to deal with the cognitive dissonance.
  - realo 1mo ago
    Some kind of "derangement syndrome "? It's funny... laugh.
    - solid_fuel 1mo ago
      Turns out, the real “TDS” was in the morons who thought a treasonous conman would fix the country this whole time. Almost like his critics were fucking right.
      - SadErn 1mo ago
        Turns out all the overly political people are annoying. I can't imagine having a conversation with someone like this for more than five minutes.
        esseph 1mo ago
        Like the people running the country?
gyanchawdhary 1mo ago
it's remarkable how much presentation can distort ppls judgment .. they'll actually admire narcissistic behaviour as long as its wrapped in a polished and presentable package (the ex PM of cananda) and yet label the less polished, ill mannered person with common sense as the narcissist ..
- switchbak 1mo ago
  Who exactly is this ill mannered counterpart to Trudeau? Please tell me you’re not talking about Trump here? Trudeau was a colossal cluster f of a prime minister, but he’s nowhere in the same ballpark.
  - gyanchawdhary 1mo ago
    really ? one resigned after turning his country into a dumping ground through disastrous immigration policies .. while the other restricted immigration .. put his own citizens first .. and generally shook up a complacent West .. and you think ther are not in the same ballpark? Let me ask you, in what ballpark would you put Trump in ? up there wkth Hitler ? Stalin ? You would wouldn’t you ?
thiht 1mo ago
> Every founder I know in manufacturing is thankful for this admin Are they MAGA?
driverdan 1mo ago
What are they manufacturing? It must not involve any metal. Due to the tariffs on metals manufacturing costs have increased significantly for anyone using them.
- MisterTea 1mo ago
  As someone who grew up in a machine shop, still in manufacturing, and have my own hobby shop, its gross how much raw materials cost. I can get finished parts shipped from China cheaper then I can buy the raw material here in the US. I almost wept looking at over $500 for a simple 2x4 foot sheet of 1/2 inch thick 6061 aluminum. Inconel is through the roof and I know a few aerospace clients who are MONTHS behind due to shortages and bonkers material costs. Like holding up the military supply chain which is ludicrous. This admin is brain dead.
  - sandworm101 1mo ago
    It is going to get worse. Iron/steel and aluminum are some of the most common elements on the planet. They are literally everywhere. The cost is in the energy for production, and to a lesser extent transport. But energy is not only going to become more expensive but actually hard to get (thank you again AI). Canada has energy, from empty land for wind/solar/hydro, to oil, to enormous piles of uranium ore. That is not an enemy worth making.
    - nine_k 1mo ago
      I remember people taking about smelting aluminum as a way to put overproduced solar electricity to a good use. Would come in very handy now.
      - sandworm101 1mo ago
        It would, but smelting is not a process that likes being started and stopped. Once furnaces and other bits and pieces are up to temperature they want to stay there. Thermal expansion is a thing, but also letting them all cool down is throwing energy away. And iron workers don't like sitting around "on call" waiting for energy prices to swing enough to justify going to work. Same too with customers. The people buying bulk metal need is when they need it. They don't want to wait around, literally, for the winds to change.
conception 1mo ago
Then every founder you know has no idea how policy should be done. There’s a difference between having a pro manufacturing policy and applying tariffs and trade wars ad hoc based on how you feel slighted and giving no warning to any businesses nor having any sort of stability to your plans for any sort of appreciable time in the future. Also, the whole announced news on Friday changed it on the next week so that whoever is betting on the stock market can make some money also is not great for a pro manufacturing base. It’s all a grift and your buddies are dupes to believe in it.
- edgyquant 1mo ago
  Policy is about trade offs, you can disagree if they’re worth it but that isn’t what people do. They instead dig in their heels and pretend policies designed to incentivize local production don’t work because local production doesn’t exist without them. That’s the point of them, and it takes time.
deleted 1mo ago
[deleted]
archonis 1mo ago
What's your sample size?
lobsterthief 1mo ago
What’s your sample size? Unless it’s 30+ politically-neutral manufacturing founders, you’re citing anecdotal evidence.
- dominotw 1mo ago
  why aren't these comments on top comment on this post saying this with no evidence "Manufacturing is still declining, not returning and a man "
  - solid_fuel 1mo ago
    Probably because manufacturing is still declining, not returning.

lawsthro0532 1mo ago

PMI is a sentiment survey of 400 manufacturing executives. Vibes only.

dominotw 1mo ago
ironic given top comment on this thread is pure vibes. interesting you chose to repond with this "vibes" comment to this instead.
- Dylan16807 1mo ago
  While the top comment is pretty vibey, it's not presenting itself as firm statistics.
pinkmuffinere 1mo ago
Are you saying PMI is a survey of 400 manufacturing executives about the status of manufacturing, and you don't think it carries meaningful signal about the status of manufacturing? I wonder what you think _would_ carry meaningful signal, if you're not satisfied by asking the people that are doing said manufacturing?
- deleted 1mo ago
  [deleted]
- samrus 1mo ago
  Hard numbers. Like output, or investment made. Like number of cars, tons of steel, etc. Things that actually reflect reality
  - lostlogin 1mo ago
    [flagged]
- sxyuan 1mo ago
  Executives aren't exactly the ones doing all the manufacturing. If you want to look at employment in manufacturing, the most you can say is that's it's stabilized after the first year of this administration: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1XUKx https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1XUKx

epolanski 1mo ago

Manufacturing has never really declined in US, not in absolute terms. It's simply facing the same fate of agriculture: automation. Politicians want to sell to people they can bring back manufacturing jobs, but it's not like in china they making cars or batteries or chips by hand. It's all automated everywhere.

californical 1mo ago
Have you seen that SmarterEveryDay video about trying to make a grill brush in the US? That obviously would’ve been possible in the US 50 years ago but is borderline impossible today because every manufacturer laughs in your face and just says “make it in China, we can’t help you”
- t-writescode 1mo ago
  This is the most recent of those videos: https://youtu.be/vS6HEes8daw https://youtu.be/vS6HEes8daw (edit: seriously? Who downvotes this. The preceeding comment mentions a video, I share the source, wtf. Don't shoot the messenger.)
  - throwitaway222 1mo ago
    Paid actors mostly.
michaelt 1mo ago
> Manufacturing has never really declined in US, not in absolute terms. Is a factory making 2GB RAM chips twice as productive as one making 1GB RAM sticks? Because if manufacturing output is merely constant while chipmakers’ output has skyrocketed (on paper, as PCs went from 32MB RAM to 32GB over a few decades), other manufacturing output must have fallen a great deal.
throwthrowrow 1mo ago
> it's not like china they making cars or batteries or chips by hand That was true a while back but less so now. Chinese companies are moving to "dark factories", which can function autonomously without humans (hence no need for lighting). https://www.reddit.com/r/ArtificialInteligence/comments/1jci0bv/dark_factories_fully_automated_with_ai_robotics/ https://www.reddit.com/r/ArtificialInteligence/comments/1jci...