3 ms·

Anthropic seems cooked right now in terms of compute

johnnyApplePRNG 2mo ago
Currently (and regularly) down, indeed.
jrflo 2mo ago
They've been really struggling all of 2026. All of these "limited time" promos, just to have less usage than codex, and the shenanigans around "peak hour" reduction earlier in the year.
dgellow 2mo ago
To be fair, their growth is ridiculously insane. I don't know how else that can be described
btmiller 2mo ago
It’s like we’re hot-spotting, but across providers rather than across infrastructure!
bpodgursky 2mo ago
it looks cooked to you, because growth numbers are cooking (to them) (nobody uses claude anymore, it's too over-subscribed)
WarmWash 2mo ago
Flavor of the month LLM gets inundated and swamped with users. Sideline LLMs have free compute and offer cheap prices to draw in crowd. Becomes flavor of the month LLM. Back to step one. It should be pretty clear by now that token prices are predominately a function of available compute.
dboreham 2mo ago
Meanwhile my $100/mo subscription allows me to spank Claude all day doing the work of 4 coders and never hit any limits.
- senko 2mo ago
  This is my experience as well -- unless I'm using Fable. That one burns through tokens like a lightsaber through butter.
jryle70 2mo ago
Their revenue has increased dramatically. The run rate was 9B in Dec, 19B in Mar, 47B in May. It's now at 65B. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-17/anthropic-revenue-run-rate-surpasses-65-billion-ahead-of-ipo https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-17/anthropic...
- sethops1 2mo ago
  Annualized. Which is another word for made-up.
  - jryle70 2mo ago
    Made up? https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/accounting/revenue-run-rate/ https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/accounting/r...
    - initatus 2mo ago
      > As it extrapolates the current financial information and performance there is an implied assumption that the present financial environment will not change significantly in the future.
      - entrope 2mo ago
        Yes, but their "run rate" assumes the current level continues unchanged, right? If revenue per month goes down then the projected run rate is optimistic. However, revenue has been increasing, so the reported run rates have underestimated revenue. I think the better question is how much more than $65B/year revenue they need to cover what they are spending on capex and model development. I would bet money their revenue in the next year is over $75B (vs $65B), but also that their amortized costs exceed their revenue.
        nl 2mo ago
        I think their capex will exceed their revenue, but $65B is a lot to spend on training runs! I suspect it's more likely they will spend the extra money on hardware and infrastructure (data centers) either directly or via suppliers.

Currently (and regularly) down, indeed.

jrflo 2mo ago

They've been really struggling all of 2026. All of these "limited time" promos, just to have less usage than codex, and the shenanigans around "peak hour" reduction earlier in the year.

dgellow 2mo ago

To be fair, their growth is ridiculously insane. I don't know how else that can be described

btmiller 2mo ago

It’s like we’re hot-spotting, but across providers rather than across infrastructure!

bpodgursky 2mo ago

it looks cooked to you, because growth numbers are cooking (to them) (nobody uses claude anymore, it's too over-subscribed)

WarmWash 2mo ago

Flavor of the month LLM gets inundated and swamped with users. Sideline LLMs have free compute and offer cheap prices to draw in crowd. Becomes flavor of the month LLM. Back to step one. It should be pretty clear by now that token prices are predominately a function of available compute.

dboreham 2mo ago

Meanwhile my $100/mo subscription allows me to spank Claude all day doing the work of 4 coders and never hit any limits.

senko 2mo ago
This is my experience as well -- unless I'm using Fable. That one burns through tokens like a lightsaber through butter.

jryle70 2mo ago

Their revenue has increased dramatically. The run rate was 9B in Dec, 19B in Mar, 47B in May. It's now at 65B. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-17/anthropic-revenue-run-rate-surpasses-65-billion-ahead-of-ipo https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-17/anthropic...

sethops1 2mo ago
Annualized. Which is another word for made-up.
- jryle70 2mo ago
  Made up? https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/accounting/revenue-run-rate/ https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/accounting/r...
  - initatus 2mo ago
    > As it extrapolates the current financial information and performance there is an implied assumption that the present financial environment will not change significantly in the future.
    - entrope 2mo ago
      Yes, but their "run rate" assumes the current level continues unchanged, right? If revenue per month goes down then the projected run rate is optimistic. However, revenue has been increasing, so the reported run rates have underestimated revenue. I think the better question is how much more than $65B/year revenue they need to cover what they are spending on capex and model development. I would bet money their revenue in the next year is over $75B (vs $65B), but also that their amortized costs exceed their revenue.
      - nl 2mo ago
        I think their capex will exceed their revenue, but $65B is a lot to spend on training runs! I suspect it's more likely they will spend the extra money on hardware and infrastructure (data centers) either directly or via suppliers.