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tdlr: This is a Novo Nordisk-funded study focusing on predictive biomarkers rather than real-world dementia cases. Novo Nordisk's actual dedicated clinical tria
by bariswheel 2mo ago
tdlr: This is a Novo Nordisk-funded study focusing on predictive biomarkers rather than real-world dementia cases. Novo Nordisk's actual dedicated clinical trials for Alzheimer's completely failed to show that semaglutide stops cognitive decline.
"A predictive biomarker is like a "check engine" light on your dashboard. It warns you that there is a risk of a future problem. In this study, the researchers only checked if the drug turned off the "check engine" light (by measuring blood proteins), rather than testing if the car was actually driving properly (by testing the patients' actual memory and brain function)."
Always do FIRST analysis on studies. Or have AI do it for you. I used Gemini to dig into this:
"Novo Nordisk funded this study, and several of the researchers are employees or minor shareholders. While corporate funding doesn't automatically mean the data is fabricated, it does mean the company is highly motivated to find and publish data that makes their blockbuster drug (semaglutide, marketed as Wegovy, Ozempic, and Rybelsus) look like a preventative treatment for a wider range of conditions, expanding its market and driving up profits."
"Funding: The study was funded by Novo Nordisk A/S.
Investigation: Researchers conducted a post hoc analysis using data from the randomized, placebo-controlled SELECT trial. They applied the Dementia SomaSignal Test (dSST)—a 25-protein risk score—to non-fasted serum samples collected at baseline and at week 104 to estimate 5-year and 20-year all-cause dementia risk in patients receiving semaglutide (2.4 mg) versus a placebo.
Results: Semaglutide significantly attenuated the progression of the dementia risk signature. Compared to the placebo group, the 5-year predicted risk increased 2.5-fold less (a 26.0% lower predicted event rate) and the 20-year risk increased 1.67-fold less (an 8.8% lower rate). Semaglutide also lowered the odds of patients moving into a higher dementia risk category by 36%.
Subjects: The analysis included 2,970 older adults aged 65 and older (mean age of ~69.7 years) who had overweight or obesity and cardiovascular disease, but no history of diabetes. The cohort consisted of 814 women (27.4%) and 2,156 men (72.6%).
Time: The study evaluated data over a 104-week (2-year) follow-up period. The analysis was published on August 8, 2026."
And then map the weakness to each respective letter if you want to dig deeper.
- TheBlight 2mo agoDidn't even bother looking into it because there's obviously not enough data yet to say anything substantial about GLP-1s and Alzheimers. But your comment should probably be the top.
- rogerrogerr 2mo agoI’m not an expert on this, but haven’t GLP-1’s been used for quite a while on more limited scopes? So maybe there’s a cohort of people that could approach statistical significance.
- toast0 2mo agoIIRC, mostly used to help with type 2 diabetes... But effects on that cohort may not generalize to the general population.
- Muskwalker 2mo agoThis particular study was done on people without diabetes, at least.
- danielmarkbruce 2mo agoGLP-1s have been used for over 20 years. There likely is enough data to say something, even if it's not water tight.
- akiselev 2mo agoThey've been used for over 20 years but until they became a weight loss drug recently, almost all of the research was on diabetics which introduces two confounding factors: diabetes and the diets diabetics already have to follow to manage the disease. It's hard to draw any conclusions when the results are muddied by those two factors.
- danielmarkbruce 2mo ago[dead]
- SubiculumCode 2mo agoCognitive Decline != Alzheimer's. There are other forms of cognitive decline in aging.
- tiahura 2mo agoDoesn’t socialized medicine mean that big brother already knows the answer to these questions? Why isn’t NHS or whomever more useful on these issues?
- dev_l1x_be 2mo agoNot only that but high intakes of added sugars and fast-acting, high-glycemic carbohydrates are linked to an increased risk of cognitive decline and dementia. Excess simple sugars, particularly fructose and sucrose, promote insulin resistance, chronic inflammation, and vascular damage that impair brain function and accelerate neurodegeneration. So with other words, you diet is a major contributing factor here. The medical establishment and big pharma simple ignores the fact that the biggest health risk for a human being is the "modern" high sugar diet that Kellogs introduced in the US and spread to the western world (even to Asia at some extent).
- wolfy1993 2mo agoI'm not sure how the medical establishment ignores this, from my understanding (and please correct me if I'm wrong as I'm not fact checking myself in this moment) - the association between the two is largely linked to vascular dementia (obesity, hypertension, yadda yadda). I think it's hard to argue "The medical establishment" ignores diet as an important factor. I think the reality a lot of the time is doctors prescribe something to help. They can't force a diet change on a patient, and they're not mutually exclusive interventions.
- eastbound 2mo agoYou say force a diet change on a patient. OP certainly meant forcing a diet change in the input of American factories. Sugar can be found in fruits. That's the right place. If you need some, use fruits, maybe alcohol. Everything else can be slashed. No sugar in prepared meals anymore. No sugar in pasta anymore. And most of all, no sugar in water. Sugar input makes more damage than cocaine today. We can call it the Prohibition II. There will be underground bars with sick people binging on sugar. We can change the shape of sugar to prevent restaurants from adding it to food. We can make it bitter. Absolutely need sugar? Eat that lemon-tasting block. We can call it The War On Sugar.
- brazukadev 2mo agopeople are so addicted to sugar that you are getting downvoted and maybe even flagged. I like "The War on Sugar" idea (even tho I went out 1 hour ago to buy lots of chocolates and candies, as I'm an addict).
- ChuckMcM 2mo agoWhich sort of affirms the mantra, "If you can't prove causation, try to prove correlation." This because you can market correlation to unsophisticated readers and imply causation.
- brookst 2mo agoOr, less conspiratorially, if correlation can be proven and causation is plausible but unproven, there may be benefits. Proving correlation but not causation does NOT rule out causation.
- cowsandmilk 2mo ago> Which sort of affirms the mantra, "If you can't prove causation, try to prove correlation." There’s already tons of correlation published for semaglutide lowering rates of dementia. This study is an effort at helping find the mechanism beyond the generally also known correlation that losing weight lowers rates of dementia.
- fn-mote 2mo agoMuch appreciated post, but can you keep the AI slop separate from the rest of it?
- cowsandmilk 2mo ago> This is a Novo Nordisk-funded study focusing on predictive biomarkers rather than real-world dementia cases You act like all this is hidden, but the title of the article and the list of authors makes this self-evident. > Novo Nordisk's actual dedicated clinical trials for Alzheimer's completely failed to show that semaglutide stops cognitive decline Sure, but the EVOKE studies were focused on something that could be sold as a product covered by insurance: semaglutide to those who had already developed Alzheimer’s. It is widely agreed the trial failed because it was a population already diagnosed with dementia. There’s lots of studies not funded by Novo that show semiglutatide has reduced the incidence of dementia in the diabetes population. Novo knows that running a general study on whether semaglutide reduces dementia in a non-diagnosed population is useless to their bottom line because insurance will never pay for everyone to take the drug.
- tokai 2mo agoIt wasn't even funded in the way funding a study usually means. That an entity handed over money to a research group. The study was done by employers in their work time for their salary. Its a Novo Nordisk study, and as you say its right there in the open. Pointing an llm against the paper to (wrongly) realize this is a real tragedy of literacy.
- SecretDreams 2mo agoI think it rubs plenty of laymen the wrong way to not make it a bit more explicitly known. The world could use a bit less nuance in our headlines these days.
- ambicapter 2mo agoIt's never enough for purity tests.
- Topfi 2mo ago> [...] not make it a bit more explicitly known. Honest question, how could it be made more explicitly known? It's literally under ACKNOWLEDGMENTS, in the most clear language possible.
- aaron695 2mo ago[dead]
- perching_aix 2mo agoSo translated to human, does this basically mean then that semaglutide distorts dementia-predictions by altering the related biomarkers, rather than actually help with dementia?
- dr_dshiv 2mo agoRegarding “actual tests”: My team and I built a battery of longitudinal cognitive assessments useful for testing memory and brain function. (http://getNeuroUX.com http://getNeuroUX.com)
- inopinatus 2mo agoFactoring out the ad corpus yelping, the interesting counterpoint is that suppressing the risk signal isn't a good thing if it doesn't suppress the risk.
- applicative 2mo agoThis is one of the most distinguished peer reviewed journals on Alzheimer’s and dementia. Adults know not to make too much of a study of this scale and ambiguity. But considered as such, the paper is above suspicion.
- RajuChacha108 2mo agoThe fact that NN funded this study is very relevant but is not necessarily a negative as you make it out it to be. Perhaps that is not your intention but reading the comment made it look like that way. 1. It makes sense for companies that profit from their drugs to use their profits to also commission such studies. 2. Faking data or causing harm exposes these companies to total black swan events for which they will pay dearly so they often have incentives to release anything that might harm their patients.