4 ms·

It's not a race. You don't get anything for winning.

by kubb 2mo ago

bpodgursky 2mo ago
It's red queen. You stay alive by winning, you lose everything by losing.
- ben_w 2mo ago
  Not sure you get either outcome in either case. Race dynamics increases p(doom) for everyone. The non-doom scenarios include "utopia for all", and "power flows to investors, not citizens of whichever nation the winning model's corp. was registered in". Independently, "oh look all the investors went bankrupt" can happen in both "doom" and "normal technology" timelines.
procgen 2mo ago
The only prize is control of the light cone.
ChrisClark 2mo ago
Unless you manage to build a god, and keep it under control... okay, we're all going to lose
Palpatineli 2mo ago
How about "being able to align ASI somewhat to your values"?
- ben_w 2mo ago
  True, but that isn't EU/US/China, it's OpenAI/Anthropic/Grok/ …/DeepMind (based in UK)/… DeepSeek With a lot of Chinese nationals in American companies, and an American corporation owning DeepMind, and a lot of people very upset with all of them at the same time, this is very messy.
BenzeneDream 2mo ago
? It absolutely is a race. Whether thats a positive thing or not is debatable but every lab is definitely in a race. What prize do you win? Imagine a world where only one country has AGI/ASI. Or a world where Europe only gets access to frontier models 6 months later. Far from ideal.
- toasty228 2mo ago
  > Imagine a world where only one country has AGI/ASI Who says the LLM race ends at an AGI/ASI finish line in the first place ?
- ux266478 2mo ago
  > What prize do you win? Imagine a world where only one country has AGI/ASI. "Winning the race" doesn't give you that in any meaningful capacity. It gives you, at the absolute most, a temporary window where that's the case. See: nuclear weapons.
  - jr3592 2mo ago
    As if time isn't money? Everything is temporary... Getting somewhere first has immense value.
    - ux266478 2mo ago
      A reductive equation, economics isn't thermodynamics. Money is fictional and value is subjective and unstable. Within this context, being first to AGI means nothing if the second invention of it comes 2 months later and works an order of magnitude faster than what the first iteration had self-improved to at that point in time. First mover advantage isn't decisive, you have to actually be able to capitalize on it in a robust way.
      - fn-mote 2mo ago
        > works an order of magnitude faster This is the weakest part of the argument. Absolutely no reason to believe the second inventor will be 10x faster. Does this ever happen? Even in traditional manufacturing, the second “inventor” starts behind and has to improve their own process to surpass the first.
tedggh 2mo ago
A race to the bottom.
InsideOutSanta 2mo ago
Well, you get hundreds of billions in debt, and then you get open weight models distilling your proprietary models.
- deleted 2mo ago
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It's not a race. You don't get anything for winning.

by kubb 2mo ago

It's not a race. You don't get anything for winning.

bpodgursky 2mo ago

It's red queen. You stay alive by winning, you lose everything by losing.

ben_w 2mo ago
Not sure you get either outcome in either case. Race dynamics increases p(doom) for everyone. The non-doom scenarios include "utopia for all", and "power flows to investors, not citizens of whichever nation the winning model's corp. was registered in". Independently, "oh look all the investors went bankrupt" can happen in both "doom" and "normal technology" timelines.

procgen 2mo ago

The only prize is control of the light cone.

ChrisClark 2mo ago

Unless you manage to build a god, and keep it under control... okay, we're all going to lose

Palpatineli 2mo ago

How about "being able to align ASI somewhat to your values"?

ben_w 2mo ago
True, but that isn't EU/US/China, it's OpenAI/Anthropic/Grok/ …/DeepMind (based in UK)/… DeepSeek With a lot of Chinese nationals in American companies, and an American corporation owning DeepMind, and a lot of people very upset with all of them at the same time, this is very messy.

BenzeneDream 2mo ago

? It absolutely is a race. Whether thats a positive thing or not is debatable but every lab is definitely in a race. What prize do you win? Imagine a world where only one country has AGI/ASI. Or a world where Europe only gets access to frontier models 6 months later. Far from ideal.

toasty228 2mo ago
> Imagine a world where only one country has AGI/ASI Who says the LLM race ends at an AGI/ASI finish line in the first place ?
ux266478 2mo ago
> What prize do you win? Imagine a world where only one country has AGI/ASI. "Winning the race" doesn't give you that in any meaningful capacity. It gives you, at the absolute most, a temporary window where that's the case. See: nuclear weapons.
- jr3592 2mo ago
  As if time isn't money? Everything is temporary... Getting somewhere first has immense value.
  - ux266478 2mo ago
    A reductive equation, economics isn't thermodynamics. Money is fictional and value is subjective and unstable. Within this context, being first to AGI means nothing if the second invention of it comes 2 months later and works an order of magnitude faster than what the first iteration had self-improved to at that point in time. First mover advantage isn't decisive, you have to actually be able to capitalize on it in a robust way.
    - fn-mote 2mo ago
      > works an order of magnitude faster This is the weakest part of the argument. Absolutely no reason to believe the second inventor will be 10x faster. Does this ever happen? Even in traditional manufacturing, the second “inventor” starts behind and has to improve their own process to surpass the first.

tedggh 2mo ago

A race to the bottom.

InsideOutSanta 2mo ago

Well, you get hundreds of billions in debt, and then you get open weight models distilling your proprietary models.

deleted 2mo ago
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