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Thinking that five or six years from now, Fable-level intelligence could be provided at 100x the current speed... makes me feel lost. I cannot imagine what the
by linzhangrun 2mo ago
Thinking that five or six years from now, Fable-level intelligence could be provided at 100x the current speed... makes me feel lost. I cannot imagine what the future will look like.
- DiscourseFan 2mo agoIt will be cool but also violent and terrible.
- pizzaiolo 2mo agoSo, like the present
- barbazoo 2mo agoWith more wealth concentrates at the top, yes.
- bigyabai 2mo agoPresumably wealth would concentrate upwards even if AI was never made.
- sanex 2mo agoYes it's a function of the monetary system. Absurd amounts of debt only certain people can access.
- DiscourseFan 2mo agoSo you're saying we need to abolish to monetary system?
- __MatrixMan__ 2mo agoLike some kind of pimple, which we can pop from all sides. And then we'll build something different. Something that works.
- ilaksh 2mo agoCerebras already runs large models like Kimi 2.6 or GLM at like 30x speed. 100 times is next year, not six years. You can actually test it out on their website, just imagine 3 x faster and maybe 15% smarter.
- keepupnow 2mo ago[flagged]
- kllrnohj 2mo agoCerebras is literally the entire wafer, so it can't get bigger. So where is the jump from 30x to 100x coming from? Node improvements only yield like 10-20% gains these days...
- AussieWog93 2mo agoCould we not just make bigger wafers, if the technology called for it?
- kzrdude 2mo agoThe investment in bigger machines at the fab might set you back billions. I don't know about the lithography technology either, how easy you can scale it to larger wafers?
- hhh 2mo agowe seem to be in a phase of spending trillions on the computer, so while it isn’t likely, it isn’t impossible
- deleted 2mo ago[deleted]
- rf15 2mo agoThere's so much you'd need to scale, it's even more expensive than the humble few billions you spend on a new fab. And, beyond R&D, the scale itself also makes it significantly more expensive. This is an energetic dead end, you would need a country to fully commit to making this one thing.
- 1saadcodes 2mo agoFeels both unreal and dystopian. The speed at which these models are developing is very scary
- dyzone 2mo agoIt tells me that they have some kind of insider knowledge that the models have hit their limits and won't be getting much better, and it makes sense economically speaking to just bake the current models and use them for the next 5-10 years. Looks like we're near the top of the S curve.
- hahahaa 2mo agoA model you can run for practically no cost is a new proposition. It is the CPUification of AI. Sure there be supercomputers but you PC will be pretty super too.
- mountainriver 2mo agoWhat would possibly tell you that?
- deleted 2mo ago[deleted]
- Maxion 2mo agoExpensive as fuck to make chips, only makes sense if you believe whatever model you're creating a chip out of will not become completely irrelevant in 5-10 years.
- niek_pas 2mo agoThere’s lots of use cases where the current models do fine though. A chip that can run a current cheap model at 100x would be amazing for things like detecting prohibited content on Facebook. You don’t need the 2030 equivalent of Fable for that, you need something that can cheaply process insane numbers of posts per day.
- IshKebab 2mo agoNo, it makes sense if whatever model you're creating a chip out of will not be irrelevant in 5 years even if it is much much faster & cheaper. There are probably limited applications but not zero.
- __MatrixMan__ 2mo agoLast month: agents spend 4 days on a hack, humans spend 3 weeks (so far) digging through the slop to figure out what happened Next time, one of those number will be smaller, and the other will likely be bigger. How long before the analysis side gets too overwhelming to bother with? Probably less than 6 years.
- threatripper 2mo agoIt's not just speed, it will consume a lot less energy per token, maybe even more than 100x difference. And cost for a chip that runs that one model will also go down a lot once volume scales up. They will end up way cheaper than flexible GPU chips. I expect AI models chopped up into building blocks where 99.9% of the compute is fixed but glued together with flexible "fine tuning" layers that will adapt them to specific applications. Those kind of chips will run 99% of consumer AI and at some point be integrated into consumer devices.
- akie 2mo agoOhhh that's a very interesting hypothesis. I think you might be right.
- matheusmoreira 2mo agoIt makes me dizzy. I have no idea what is going to happen within even a year from now, can barely even imagine it. I'm trying to get the most out of it by redlining my AI subscriptions. Hopefully I'll manage to start a business in my niche. I don't even know if my niche will exist in the future.
- novaRom 2mo agoNot just you. Hassabis in a recent interview looked a bit nervous when talking about AGI is rather sooner than many expected.